LAS VEGAS – Liam Smith believes that Jaime Munguia has a “massive chance” of dethroning Saul Alvarez as the undisputed super-middleweight champion on Saturday night.

The Mexican rivals fight at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on the occasion of Cinco de Mayo weekend, and “Canelo” Alvarez is considered a sufficiently strong favourite that Edgar Berlanga is in Sin City in an attempt to promote a potential date with him in September.

Smith was competitive in fights with Alvarez in 2016 and Munguia two years later, and has since monitored their progress – including in Alvarez’s victory in 2020 over his brother Callum.

He lost on each occasion, since when it is increasingly being suggested that Alvarez, at 33, is declining and that Munguia, 27, is approaching his peak.

Smith regardless insists that Alvarez retains all of the technical abilities that make him a “genius”. He also expects the aggressive Munguia to attempt to outwork Alvarez, and recognises the extent to which the challenger has physically matured.

“Ability-wise – tactics, and technical-wise – [Alvarez is] probably as good as he always has been,” Smith said. 

“He could probably tell you he’s better – he’s a cleverer fighter with more experience – but he’s a top fighter. A very, very clever technical genius. But I do think he’s slowing down a touch. 

“Maybe his career’s catching up with him – he’s been pro a long time, since he was a teenager, and fought at the top level for over 10 years. You think of the camps; the high-level fights; the pressure. Everything that comes with being a superstar like he is – I think it’s catching up with him. Do I think he’s shot? No. But do I think it’s catching up with him? Yes.

“He’s got that natural fluidness anyway – he’s so relaxed all the time. Ability-wise, his variety, and his technique, isn’t far off perfect. But it’s more how good he is defensively; how good he rides shots; he’s a very, very, very good fighter.

“[When we fought], 20 or 30 seconds in, I fell short with a jab, then I fell short with another one, and the third time I went to throw a jab I feinted ‘cause the first two fell short and he was already trying to slip right hands over my jab. He’s so clever; so intelligent.

“Definitely [he’s the best I’ve fought] – by a long way. Everything. He’s a long way out. He’s out on his own. I think Callum would say ‘Canelo’ was better than [past opponent Artur] Beterbiev.”

Munguia in January stopped John Ryder in nine rounds after Alvarez had gone the distance with Ryder in May 2023. A month after Alvarez-Ryder, Munguia earned a decision over Sergey Derevyanchenko, and demonstrated that he was continuing to improve.

“He’s got better,” said Smith. “I’m a fan. I was a fan of the way his career was going and progressing – he was being kept busy – but when he went to middleweight I was kind of disappointed with him a little bit, because he still hasn’t picked a world title up at middleweight. He stepped up as a champion, and he avoided it, then bypassed a couple of mandatory places, so I was disappointed in him a little bit. 

“But I’m a fan of the way he fights. What you see is what you get. He comes; he brings it; he doesn’t try and hold; if he’s got you hurt in round one he’ll try and finish it, and he’ll throw the same punch in two, three, four, five. He doesn’t change nothing; he’s got better also, and puts his punches together very good. It’s a very good fight with Canelo at this stage.

“His offence is very good. His defence is not so good, and that’ll be the big difference in this fight. It’s a very good fight. Munguia will have loads of moments where Canelo’s defence; defence; defence – when Munguia’s trying to throw three, four, five, six, seven shots at him – but Canelo will counter and make Munguia pay for lots of mistakes. Canelo will capitalise a lot and make Munguia… I fought him a long time ago and he’s got better; he was very green, and lots of things I’ve watched since, he still does the same mistakes, and I think Canelo will counter Munguia’s jab a lot.

“Stylistically, I was made up with that match-up. I was a better fighter than him; he was just young; he had momentum; had had four fights in a year and I hadn’t boxed for 12 months. I was looking at the ring-card girl round six to see what round it was and that’s not me; I usually get better with fights, and I had a good start. I won rounds one, two, three, and then it went downhill from there, but also in a very good and entertaining fight. That was probably his best performance at super welterweight; then the weight started hurting him. He only had a couple more and moved up. He was a big lad at super welter. 

“The fight with John Ryder, he done the distance well. Ryder’s fit and durable; he’s looked good at super middleweight; [Sergey] Derevyanchenko, you can’t really say he tired in that because the 12th-round knockdown seemed to win him that fight. He’s exciting. No-f****-given type. He’s not really interested in anything – he’s the type of kid who loves a fight.

“He’s got a massive chance. I think Canelo massively overlooked [in 2022, Dmitrii] Bivol. Although there was a crazy jump in weight, he picked Bivol for a reason, ‘cause Bivol was classed as a weak champion at that stage. He’d struggled with [Craig] ‘Spider’ Richards; Canelo was going to light heavyweight to add to his legacy and he picked Bivol as the weak champion, not Beterbiev. He picked Bivol, and Bivol put a great performance on, but Bivol was throwing one, two, three, four straight punches, and I think Canelo overlooked him, because I thought his fitness was not his usual standards. Munguia thinks if he throws enough punches Canelo could tire. 

“[But] Canelo wins. I do think he could stop him – I think he’s out to prove a point, too, so I think he could get a stoppage. But it’ll be very entertaining. It’ll be a great fight to watch on the eye. As I said before though, Munguia makes too many mistakes for someone of Canelo’s IQ.”