Anthony Joshua is not one to shirk a challenge and he’s now the underdog in the biggest fight of his life, when he challenges Oleksandr Usyk for his old heavyweight titles in Saudi Arabia tonight.

Usyk out-thought, outfought and outboxed Joshua when they met at Tottenham Hotspur’s stadium last September. Joshua’s supporters wanted to see him get physical, impose himself more – using his size and power – but he got caught with sharp counters and was in dire straits at the end of the 12th.

Not long in to the first bout, Joshua seemed reluctant to let his shots go upon realizing Usyk’s counters were so quick. There was also plenty of praise for the accuracy of Usyk’s southpaw left hand, but his right was mesmerizing. Even when Usyk didn’t throw it, Joshua was pensive about what might come his way. The Ukrainian’s right had serpent-like qualities, transfixing and bewitching the Londoner. Usyk feinted, jabbed once, doubled it, turned it over into a hook and fired it into the body. It controlled the fight and the tempo it was contested at. 

It is a big question how Joshua can disarm that weapon, or even try to remotely neutralize it. Usyk doesn’t have a conventional arsenal and it’s nigh on impossible to replicate in sparring, certainly to the level the champion operates at.

There comes a point when size, strength and power isn’t enough, and when a good big guy can’t beat a great smaller guy. 

But I’m reluctant to write Joshua off. 

Even if he sometimes sends out confusing messages, and even though Robert Garcia and Angel Fernandez say they will share corner duties on the night, Joshua is not short of intelligence, determination or ambition. He feels he has a point to prove and really always has, given the many critics he has been forced to endure over his decade in the pros having claimed Olympic gold following a comparatively brief amateur career. He also has a resolve that stiffens when he’s tested. Andy Ruiz shocked him in New York in their first fight but Joshua was focused, stuck to a game plan in the rematch and boxed with a fundamental soundness to win at a canter.

A significant difference here, though, is that Ruiz believed the hype, seemingly trained for the rematch at Wendy’s and wasn’t the same force in Saudi. Usyk, a slender underdog in Tottenham the first time around, is the favorite this time and not only will he feel he has a blueprint, but he’s motivated to give his countrymen something to cheer about after the Russian war wreaked havoc on their civilization. Usyk, of course, was involved in the war effort earlier this year and he plans to return to it, too.

But he takes his position of inspiration seriously and believes victory will make a positive difference at home.  

It’s likely to be a motivation rather than a distraction.

Neither fighter appear fazed by the accusations of sportswashing, nor does anyone else in Saudi Arabia, and they don’t seem keen to address it, either. Joshua has been in Saudi preparing for four weeks and it’s probably easier for him to focus on the job at hand rather be somewhere where he is in demand constantly. 

He doesn’t do much ‘regular’ boxing media now but he is always wanted somewhere, whether it’s a TV appearance, an endorsement, a commercial or a plug. 

The Joshua brand has arguably never been bigger, but the corporate version of AJ has plenty of detractors. Social media is often brimming with anti-Joshua sentiment, maybe in part because it’s hard to get a read on what he’s actually like these days. There seems to be an identity crisis, in the ring and out. In the ring, he brawled with Pulev, tried to outthink Usyk and went to war with Ruiz before outboxing him in the return. One could argue that he’s just becoming a more versatile fighter, and he’s developed more facets to his game. But one still must wonder if he believes he can beat Usyk, and if he can say with any type of certainty what his best tactic will be. 

To just try to engage and rough the champion up could leave him open to Usyk’s precision counters. To start hard and fast, trying to establish himself, might cause Joshua’s engine to blow up later in the fight. To sit back and see what Usyk has might allow the champion to find a rhythm.

The team in the corner, Fernandez and Garcia, are apparently sharing responsibility and will both be trying to navigate AJ through the fight. In a sport where we often hear one voice is needed in the corner, that’s an alarm bell.

This is not anti-AJ sentiment, by the way, merely an observation. The best scenario for boxing is always a great fight, no controversy and the boxers to carry themselves as role models.

I think if Joshua is to be victorious, he does it by unlocking Usyk’s defense and stopping him with heavy shots, straight rights and left hooks. It’s hard to see AJ winning a decision. He tried outboxing Usyk last time and nearly got stopped, and Usyk might be emboldened by the victory, by almost having Joshua out and by the fact that he’s now got more experience at the weight.

Joshua is immensely courageous, but I’m not convinced he can do better this time. My feeling is that the harder he fights, the more he will get hit and that will ultimately see him unravel before being stopped in the ninth or 10th round. But I’d still love to see him against Deontay Wilder, and let’s see Tyson Fury’s reaction if Usyk calls him out.