A Cold Hard Look At What Hearn Needs To Offer Wilder

[Stinger1]

First, let's look at what's on the table in each scenario.

Wilder vs Joshua April 13 at Wembley:

Projected PPV (British only): 2 million = 50 million gross (22.5 net)
Projected gate: 12.5 million (would be a record gate at Wembley for AJ fight)
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 15 million

Total to split: 50 million

Wilder vs Fury May 4 in Vegas:

Projected PPV (American only): 650K = 48.75 million gross (21.94 net)
Projected gate: 11 million
Foreign TV rights/sponsorships: 9 million

Total to split: 42 million

Notice I have record gates and ppv buys for the British fight, while the estimates for the American fight includes no Vegas site fee and are probably on the low side.

Here's where it gets interesting.

In a Wembley fight, if Hearns offers Wilder 40% (a number he maintains Wilder doesn't deserve) that means Deontay makes 20 million.

In a Vegas fight that Wilder splits 50/50 with Fury, he makes 21 million.

This is why, when Hearn and AJ maintain they have made an offer based on what they "feel" they should get versus what Wilder deserves, THEY ARE AUTOMATICALLY PRICING THEMSELVES OUT OF THE FIGHT.

Wilder actually accepted a lowball offer for 15 million this fall, but AJ chose to fight Povetkin instead. But some AJ fans claim he never took the offer in truth.

So, if that is the case, if Wilder wouldn't accept the lowball offer on principle earlier, why would he accept an offer of 40% or less now?

He has a very viable alternative now financially, and the unification will still be there in the fall when, should he beat Fury in the rematch, he will have even MORE leverage.

So, what does this mean?

This means that Hearn and AJ, if they sincerely want Wilder in Wembley in April, need to make an offer closer to 50/50.

Anything less, and they are asking Wilder to take less money than he would be able to make elsewhere. Now, to be fair, a chance to win AJ's belts may be worth taking less. But, again, if you are Wilder and you think you can beat Fury in a rematch, the Vegas date makes more sense next since the opportunity for AJ's belts will still be there later in the year.

LOL 650K PPV buys? There is literally no precedent for an immediate rematch doing double the amount of buys. Here are the facts:

Ward v Kovalev PPV buys 165,000, Rematch 130,000 (-21%)
RJJ v Tarver PPV buys 302,000, Rematch 360,000 (+19%)
Canelo v Golovkin PPV buys 1.3m, Rematch 1.1m (-15%)
Holyfield v Lewis PPV buys 1.2m, Rematch 900,000 (-29%)
Mayweather v Maidaina PPV buys 900,000, Rematch 925,000 (+3%)
Tyson v Ruddock PPV Buys 960,000, Rematch 1.25m (+19%)
Tyson v Holyfield PPV Buys 1.6m, Rematch 2m (+25%)
Holyfield v Bowe PPV Buys 900,000, Rematch 950,000 (+6%)
Pacquaio v Morales PPV Buys 300,000, Rematch 360,000 (+20%)

So the largest increase was 25% and biggest decrease was -29% which gives us a projected range for the rematch of 230,000-405,000 with the average change in buys for the rematch being (+3%) which projects 334,000. So projected US PPV revenue for the fight is between $18.4m and $32.4m based on an $80 PPV price.

The fact is Wilder only probably made $10m for the first fight and probably won't make much more than $15m for the rematch. AJ most recent offer was $17.5m to $20m guarantee or 35%, which ever turned out to be bigger.

[koolkc107]

One question, and I'm sure that I will not get a sensible answer but I'll put it out there anyway. If Wilder had four belts and AJ had one, would you idiots think that Wilder should give AJ 40 to 50%? If Wilder sold out soccer stadiums and was a PPV stars for years now, and AJ had 1 PPV that didn't even do that well, do you idiots still think Wilder should give AJ 40 to 50%? Also, if AJ was the one who was talking **** this entire time, and Wilder just carried on fighting 4 of the top 15 fighters in the world, do you think Wilder should still give AJ 40 to 50%?? Because I think if it all was reversed, Wilder wouldn't do any of that.

This is prizefighting.

It's not always about belts, even those acquired via careful management and tossed in vacant titles.

This is about what the fight is worth and what Wilder is worth to the fight.

AJ's biggest fight grossed 64 million, his last two grossed 50 million.

The Wilder vs AJ fight will likely gross 80 million in Britain, and at least 100 million if it is held in Vegas. No way should Wilder accept LESS of a percentage than Martin or Wlad got when this fight is much, much bigger.

Let me ask you a question...did you argue for Golovkin accepting a flat fee or taking a smaller percentage than he got for his fights with Canelo?

I bet you didn't.

The data indicates that he wasn't much more of a lucrative opponent than Chavez Jr. His ppvs with Canelo did about 1 million buys, the same as Chavez. Golovkin on his own couldn't break the 200K mark in his PPV (depending on who you believe, he did anywhere from 97K to 170K in his fight with Jacobs).

Yet, I don't recall you arguing that Canelo was the A-side and therefore G should take what he was offered- even though you could make a much better case for Golovkin accepting a flat fee than Wilder.

Truth is, what Golovkin did prior has NOTHING TO DO with what he was worth TO CANELO.

Likewise, what belts owned by whoever has NOTHING TO DO with what Wilder is worth to AJ. We can safely assume it's at least an extra 30M gross in Britain and an extra 50M or more in Vegas.

So, why do you feel AJ and Hearn are the only ones entitled to benefit from that extra windfall? AJ can go on fighting less than the best and watch his bottom line shrink while Wilder will continue to take challenges and watch his money increase without AJ.

And stop it with "he sells out soccer stadiums". So did Froch and Groves and I promise you that if that fight was held in the US, they would not have sold 5 thousand tickets if they were lucky. There is absolutely nothing to indicate AJ would sell out anything in the US.

Selling out a soccer stadium and only grossing 8 million while selling a ton of $25 ppvs in Britain DOES NOT MAKE YOU AN INTERNATIONAL PPV STAR.

Joshua is a big fish in a small pond, nothing more.

AJ hasn't sold a single seat or ppv in the most lucrative market in his chosen profession, while Wilder actually has. You cannot call yourself an A-side with that being true. It's like a British soap opera star saying he should get paid the same for a blockbuster film as Idris Elba.

Lastly, as far as strength of competition, I don't think you will find anyone with any sense who thinks Parker and Povetkin are stiffer competition than Ortiz and Fury.

[koolkc107]

LOL 650K PPV buys? There is literally no precedent for an immediate rematch doing double the amount of buys. Here are the facts:

Ward v Kovalev PPV buys 165,000, Rematch 130,000 (-21%)
RJJ v Tarver PPV buys 302,000, Rematch 360,000 (+19%)
Canelo v Golovkin PPV buys 1.3m, Rematch 1.1m (-15%)
Holyfield v Lewis PPV buys 1.2m, Rematch 900,000 (-29%)
Mayweather v Maidaina PPV buys 900,000, Rematch 925,000 (+3%)
Tyson v Ruddock PPV Buys 960,000, Rematch 1.25m (+19%)
Tyson v Holyfield PPV Buys 1.6m, Rematch 2m (+25%)
Holyfield v Bowe PPV Buys 900,000, Rematch 950,000 (+6%)
Pacquaio v Morales PPV Buys 300,000, Rematch 360,000 (+20%)

So the largest increase was 25% and biggest decrease was -29% which gives us a projected range for the rematch of 230,000-405,000 with the average change in buys for the rematch being (+3%) which projects 334,000. So projected US PPV revenue for the fight is between $18.4m and $32.4m based on an $80 PPV price.

The fact is Wilder only probably made $10m for the first fight and probably won't make much more than $15m for the rematch. AJ most recent offer was $17.5m to $20m guarantee or 35%, which ever turned out to be bigger.

There is also no precedent for any of those examples being illegally streamed by 10 million people.

If only 7% of that turns into legit buys, 650K would be a low estimate...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshkat...legal-streams/

[Tyistall]

This is prizefighting.

It's not always about belts, even those acquired via careful management and tossed in vacant titles.

This is about what the fight is worth and what Wilder is worth to the fight.

AJ's biggest fight grossed 64 million, his last two grossed 50 million.

The Wilder vs AJ fight will likely gross 80 million in Britain, and at least 100 million if it is held in Vegas. No way should Wilder accept LESS of a percentage than Martin or Wlad got when this fight is much, much bigger.

Let me ask you a question...did you argue for Golovkin accepting a flat fee or taking a smaller percentage than he got for his fights with Canelo?

I bet you didn't.

The data indicates that he wasn't much more of a lucrative opponent than Chavez Jr. His ppvs with Canelo did about 1 million buys, the same as Chavez. Golovkin on his own couldn't break the 200K mark in his PPV (depending on who you believe, he did anywhere from 97K to 170K in his fight with Jacobs).

Yet, I don't recall you arguing that Canelo was the A-side and therefore G should take what he was offered- even though you could make a much better case for Golovkin accepting a flat fee than Wilder.

Truth is, what Golovkin did prior has NOTHING TO DO with what he was worth TO CANELO.

Likewise, what belts owned by whoever has NOTHING TO DO with what Wilder is worth to AJ. We can safely assume it's at least an extra 30M gross in Britain and an extra 50M or more in Vegas.

So, why do you feel AJ and Hearn are the only ones entitled to benefit from that extra windfall? AJ can go on fighting less than the best and watch his bottom line shrink while Wilder will continue to take challenges and watch his money increase without AJ.

And stop it with "he sells out soccer stadiums". So did Froch and Groves and I promise you that if that fight was held in the US, they would not have sold 5 thousand tickets if they were lucky. There is absolutely nothing to indicate AJ would sell out anything in the US.

Selling out a soccer stadium and only grossing 8 million while selling a ton of $25 ppvs in Britain DOES NOT MAKE YOU AN INTERNATIONAL PPV STAR.

Joshua is a big fish in a small pond, nothing more.

AJ hasn't sold a single seat or ppv in the most lucrative market in his chosen profession, while Wilder actually has. You cannot call yourself an A-side with that being true. It's like a British soap opera star saying he should get paid the same for a blockbuster film as Idris Elba.

Lastly, as far as strength of competition, I don't think you will find anyone with any sense who thinks Parker and Povetkin are stiffer competition than Ortiz and Fury.

Wow, that was the dumbest bunch of rambling crap I've read on here in a while, congratulations. Wilder is a bum beating fraud and his fans are semi-******ed. 2 decent fights out of 41 and all of a sudden he's the king of the world? And man, you idiots sure do like to say that belts don't mean anything...but in the next sentence say that the WBC belt is the best one hahaha. Wilder has devalued that belt by fighting cans for years now and avoiding his mandatory. If he is smart (which he isn't) he would take the 20 million and take the opportunity to fight for all the belts. But he won't because he's not confident enough to think that he will win. That's the real reason he will fight guys like Fury, Ortiz, Szpilka, Washington and the rest for 15% of what he can make against AJ. He knows he will get KOed by AJ if they fight and the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.

[Stinger1]

There is also no precedent for any of those examples being illegally streamed by 10 million people.

If only 7% of that turns into legit buys, 650K would be a low estimate...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshkat...legal-streams/

First of all it says there were 2 milion illegal US streams and secondly I'm sure there were millions of illegal streams for Canelo-GGG but LESS people tuned in for the rematch despite the first fight being great. So yes there is precedent.

[koolkc107]

Wow, that was the dumbest bunch of rambling crap I've read on here in a while, congratulations. Wilder is a bum beating fraud and his fans are semi-******ed. 2 decent fights out of 41 and all of a sudden he's the king of the world? And man, you idiots sure do like to say that belts don't mean anything...but in the next sentence say that the WBC belt is the best one hahaha. Wilder has devalued that belt by fighting cans for years now and avoiding his mandatory. If he is smart (which he isn't) he would take the 20 million and take the opportunity to fight for all the belts. But he won't because he's not confident enough to think that he will win. That's the real reason he will fight guys like Fury, Ortiz, Szpilka, Washington and the rest for 15% of what he can make against AJ. He knows he will get KOed by AJ if they fight and the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.

Well, that was easy.

No good takes so you just figured you'd get indignant, throw in a few insults and that would pass as a decent post, huh?

I don't think so.

You still need to explain why Martin and Wlad deserved what they got while Wilder- who will be part of a fight bigger than both of them combined- deserves less.

Let me help you out...you can't.

You can't deny that AJ has yet to sell a single PPV in the biggest most lucrative market in his profession.

You can't deny that AJ has yet to sell a single seat there either.

You can't deny that he has run away from several opportunities to make the fight he is now seemingly so eager for, including an unprecedented 50 million dollar guarantee, unheard of in heavyweight history.

The only explanations for lowballing Wilder the way they have is that a) they don't want the fight yet, and/or b) pure greed or wanting to make sure they make enough to cover the hit AJ's image is going to take when he loses, and/or c) some combination of the two.

The Wilder fight will be BY FAR AJ's biggest payday.

There is plenty of money to be made to assure that AJ gets a record purse AND Wilder gets the split he has earned.

Those of us who follow the sport more than casually know what this is because we have seen it many times before.

One guy has tried to make the fight several times in the last year. The other has run away from a negotiation, turned down a record purse, and invoked a mandatory, all while offering purses that represent a LOWER PERCENTAGE THAN ANY OFFERED TO AN OPPONENT FOR A BIG FIGHT.

If you feel good defending that, be my guest.

I will call it what it is: bullshyt.

[koolkc107]

First of all it says there were 2 milion illegal US streams and secondly I'm sure there were millions of illegal streams for Canelo-GGG but LESS people tuned in for the rematch despite the first fight being great. So yes there is precedent.

Nope.

There actually were not "millions of illegal streams for Canelo-GGG"...if there were, you can present some documentation and we both know you can't because there isn't any.

You just pulled that out of your arse.

10 million illegal streams, and yes 2 million in the US alone.

Which again means that you only have to have a small fraction of those- even in the US alone- buy the next one TO DOUBLE what they did the first time, exactly as I projected.

Try harder next time...

[Tyistall]

Well, that was easy.

No good takes so you just figured you'd get indignant, throw in a few insults and that would pass as a decent post, huh?

I don't think so.

You still need to explain why Martin and Wlad deserved what they got while Wilder- who will be part of a fight bigger than both of them combined- deserves less.

Let me help you out...you can't.

You can't deny that AJ has yet to sell a single PPV in the biggest most lucrative market in his profession.

You can't deny that AJ has yet to sell a single seat there either.

You can't deny that he has run away from several opportunities to make the fight he is now seemingly so eager for, including an unprecedented 50 million dollar guarantee, unheard of in heavyweight history.

The only explanations for lowballing Wilder the way they have is that a) they don't want the fight yet, and/or b) pure greed or wanting to make sure they make enough to cover the hit AJ's image is going to take when he loses, and/or c) some combination of the two.

The Wilder fight will be BY FAR AJ's biggest payday.

There is plenty of money to be made to assure that AJ gets a record purse AND Wilder gets the split he has earned.

Those of us who follow the sport more than casually know what this is because we have seen it many times before.

One guy has tried to make the fight several times in the last year. The other has run away from a negotiation, turned down a record purse, and invoked a mandatory, all while offering purses that represent a LOWER PERCENTAGE THAN ANY OFFERED TO AN OPPONENT FOR A BIG FIGHT.

If you feel good defending that, be my guest.

I will call it what it is: bullshyt.

You are a special kind of stupid aren't you? AJ didn't have 4 belts when he fought Wladimir did he? He also didn't have ONE belt at all when he fought Martin dumbass so that kills your argument right there. Also, Wilder couldn't sell out Staples Center even though they gave a bunch of tickets away hahahah so how does he deserve 50-50 or even 60-40? And 15 million is not a low ball offer when you regularly make 1 million per fight like Wilder does. And yeah, one guy has tried to make the fight, AJ. Wilder has had 4 offers to fight and he has turned them all down. Stop trying to turn the facts around idiot and open your eyes. Your idol is a bum beating fraud.

[koolkc107]

You are a special kind of stupid aren't you? AJ didn't have 4 belts when he fought Wladimir did he? He also didn't have ONE belt at all when he fought Martin dumbass so that kills your argument right there. Also, Wilder couldn't sell out Staples Center even though they gave a bunch of tickets away hahahah so how does he deserve 50-50 or even 60-40? And 15 million is not a low ball offer when you regularly make 1 million per fight like Wilder does. And yeah, one guy has tried to make the fight, AJ. Wilder has had 4 offers to fight and he has turned them all down. Stop trying to turn the facts around idiot and open your eyes. Your idol is a bum beating fraud.

Actually, if you think this is about belts, you are more of an idiot than you even appear to be here.

This isn't about belts, if it was then AJ would pay what he is supposed to instead of offering relative peanuts.

And by the way, I mention Golovkin before for a reason. He was up against a proven A-side in a market where he was proven not to be a PPV draw and yet he eventually got paid properly both fights.

Why do you think that was?

It was because Canelo was not going to make THAT MUCH MONEY with ANYONE ELSE, that's why.

Sure, AJ can continue to prove the law of diminishing returns and watch his receipts get smaller and smaller every cherrypick he fights. He will still make money...only it will take 2 or 3 fights to make what he could in ONE fight with Wilder.

THAT'S what this is about.

Money.

And AJ is not making the kind of money he can with Wilder that he can with anyone else, Fury included. A Fury vs AJ fight would have to do 4 million buys to get anywhere near what a Vegas fight between AJ and Wilder would do.

Martin was not a competitive fight, it was to get Joshua a belt...so they paid.

Wlad was not about belts, it was about supposedly passing the torch (even though in truth Fury had it by then)...so they paid.

This fight is about much more than any of those AND a boatload of money...but for some reason, they don't want to pay.

It should ring a bell for anyone with even a little bit of common sense, but apparently with you AJ has leverage because of "belts".

And by the way, 15 million IS a lowball offer and EVERYONE except Hearn, AJ, and fanboys thinks so.

Listen to men who know better: