Originally posted by jas
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Official(ish) Boxing Betting Thread
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Originally posted by Clegg View PostBerchelt is even odds to get the KO. TBH I fancy Miura in that fight especially as he's the underdog. Monaghan is 7/2 for the KO. Those are UK odds but normally US are very similar.
miura didnt look great vs mickey roman to be honest mate. looks like hes slowed down since the vargas fight,
i think betting on miura would be a massive mistake, there is no way he has better than a 33% chance of beating berchelt imo which is what he needs to make the bet profitable. miura telegraphs his left hand . berchelt has insane stamina and great combinations head and body. he will probably beat miura up
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Originally posted by jas View Postlookin at monoghan at 7/2 to beat marcus browne
and berchelt at 2/5 to beat miura
waiting for the ko odds for both fights
I like Joe Smith at +190 to get past Barrera better than Monoghan winning. Not that I'm betting on Joe Smith either cuz I do think the Smith hype train will end vs a quality guy like Barrera who's not Bhop old or like Fonfara & shot. Although I must admit I'm rooting on Joe Smith. Him & Indongo might be my two favorite guys to root for in all of boxing for the stuff they've been pulling off lately.
Good luck doe.
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Originally posted by Eff Pandas View PostIdk about Monoghan beating Browne. Monoghan is old as f#ck (36 next month) & hasn't fought anyone really yet. This is a huge jump up in class for him. I think I can really only see Browne losing here if he gets touched up good, but idk if the odds will pay well enough vs the % chance of it happening, or Browne gets himself DQ'd cuz he fights crazy as sh^t too much.
I like Joe Smith at +190 to get past Barrera better than Monoghan winning. Not that I'm betting on Joe Smith either cuz I do think the Smith hype train will end vs a quality guy like Barrera who's not Bhop old or like Fonfara & shot. Although I must admit I'm rooting on Joe Smith. Him & Indongo might be my two favorite guys to root for in all of boxing for the stuff they've been pulling off lately.
Good luck doe.
browne got a gift vs kalajdzic. he cant fight inside and has stamina issues imo. also, the crowd will be pro-seanie which should influence the judges and ref .browne fouls a lot. seanie also throws way more punches
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Originally posted by Eff Pandas View PostIdk about Monoghan beating Browne. Monoghan is old as f#ck (36 next month) & hasn't fought anyone really yet. This is a huge jump up in class for him. I think I can really only see Browne losing here if he gets touched up good, but idk if the odds will pay well enough vs the % chance of it happening, or Browne gets himself DQ'd cuz he fights crazy as sh^t too much.
I like Joe Smith at +190 to get past Barrera better than Monoghan winning. Not that I'm betting on Joe Smith either cuz I do think the Smith hype train will end vs a quality guy like Barrera who's not Bhop old or like Fonfara & shot. Although I must admit I'm rooting on Joe Smith. Him & Indongo might be my two favorite guys to root for in all of boxing for the stuff they've been pulling off lately.
Good luck doe.
smith in power
will take a further look
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Originally posted by jas View Posti know a close friend of seanie's who has seen the two spar a dozen times . he thinks seanie will lose the first 2-4 rounds and break browne down and stop him
browne got a gift vs kalajdzic. he cant fight inside and has stamina issues imo. also, the crowd will be pro-seanie which should influence the judges and ref .browne fouls a lot. seanie also throws way more punches
For a crazy dog pick this weekend I don't hate Barros over Selby at +2000. Selby should obviously be the favorite here, but Barros only having a 4% chance of winning as the odds suggest is insanity. I like Ward over Cacace (-150). Berchelt over Miura (-280) & I like the under 9.5rds on that (-130) too. Don't hate Loreto upsetting Knockout CP Freshmart (+245).
And randomly for future fights somehow Parker is damn near in a pickem (-140) vs Hughie Fury (+120) so I think there is massive value in betting on Parker there. I was/am a huge fan of Tyson & think he's got a huge boxing IQ that people still don't appreciate, but idk wtf Hughie is doing in the ring most of the time except looking really awkward & not doing much of anything. And I don't even think Parker is all that good I just think Hughie isn't very good & getting outclassed in this fight & those odds are wayyyyyyy f#cking off vs what'll happen in the ring. Although with Hughie's issues if you bet early on that one the sportsbook may just be holding your money til Hughie cancels so it may not even be worth betting on now if you suspect those odds don't change or perhaps even get closer.
And also I think one of the safest bets in the world right now is Floyd/Conor under 9.5 at -165. Conor has gas tank problems is extremely outclassed here & the only way he can win is by a KO early in this fight. That has all the ingredients of this fight ending early even if Floyd is old, inactive & hasn't KO'd anyone legit in wayyyyy too long.
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Originally posted by Eff Pandas View Post
For a crazy dog pick this weekend I don't hate Barros over Selby at +2000. Selby should obviously be the favorite here, but Barros only having a 4% chance of winning as the odds suggest is insanity.
I like Ward over Cacace (-150).
Berchelt over Miura (-280) & I like the under 9.5rds on that (-130) too.
And randomly for future fights somehow Parker is damn near in a pickem (-140) vs Hughie Fury (+120) so I think there is massive value in betting on Parker there.
And also I think one of the safest bets in the world right now is Floyd/Conor under 9.5 at -165. Conor has gas tank problems is extremely outclassed here & the only way he can win is by a KO early in this fight. That has all the ingredients of this fight ending early even if Floyd is old, inactive & hasn't KO'd anyone legit in wayyyyy too long.
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Originally posted by jas View Postuk judging is definitely the most corrupt/incompetent in the world right now. hughie's output is low but we havent seen his best. staying away from this one.
But enough of that rant, what do you like about Hughie beyond potentially favorable judging?
He just seems like a highly awkward HW with no-pop & little activity that'll fail way more often then not vs top 10ish world class opposition. I think he could be a higher level, less entertaining Butterbean more or less. Cept instead of being obese his gimmick is that nasty ass looking acne. He's got nothing on Tyson & I believe him getting any attention at all is largely based off of his last name. Guy shouldn't even be in an eliminator for a title shot let alone a title shot even with our sketchy ass abc groups.
gonna wait for odds to shift.hopefully conor destroys mayweather in the press conferences like he did yesterday so the odds move even more. floyd ko at just under evens seems good
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Originally posted by Eff Pandas View PostIdk that UK judging is the worst. For the most part I think judging nation to nation is completely fine 99% of the time in regards to who should've won (the scores themselves can make 0% sense maybe 50%+ of the time). People just get their panties in a bunch when its a close fight with ~3 rounds are even-ish & they all go to one guy it looks like & stuff like that when the fight could go either way if we are looking at it reasonably.
But enough of that rant, what do you like about Hughie beyond potentially favorable judging?
He just seems like a highly awkward HW with no-pop & little activity that'll fail way more often then not vs top 10ish world class opposition. I think he could be a higher level, less entertaining Butterbean more or less. Cept instead of being obese his gimmick is that nasty ass looking acne. He's got nothing on Tyson & I believe him getting any attention at all is largely based off of his last name. Guy shouldn't even be in an eliminator for a title shot let alone a title shot even with our sketchy ass abc groups.
Idk that the over/under will get anymore favorable then it is, but for Floyd winning by KO waiting is the move cuz I think that London presser might end up helping getting a ton of dumb money influencing the betting lines so right with you there. Although I already do got some Floyd KO props in play along with some more aggressive under bets with some parlays, but I'll double down on them as we get closer to Aug. 26 & they likely get sexier.
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