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The Belarusian President Won’t Go Down Without a Fight
foreignpolicy
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This is the article that might have started it all
tass.com/politics
Tensions between Moscow and Minsk have sparked worries over another Russian annexation.
The president of Belarus on Thursday cautioned that Moscow could lose its only ally on its western border if the two countries could not resolve an ongoing dispute over energy, and he dismissed speculation that his country could soon be unified with Russia.
The president of Belarus on Thursday cautioned that Moscow could lose its only ally on its western border if the two countries could not resolve an ongoing dispute over energy, and he dismissed speculation that his country could soon be unified with Russia.
excerpts from this article
This past December the Belarusian president accused Russia of doing away with subsidies to hobble Belarus and force it to join Russia. “I understand what all those hints mean: You get the oil but you break up your country and join Russia,” Lukashenko said at a news conference on Dec. 14.
But there’s a new wrinkle in the spat this time: Belarus could provide a way for Russian President Vladimir Putin to prolong his political career. Putin, who won re-election last year, is slated to leave office in 2024 under constitutionally mandated term limits. But a 20-year-old treaty with Belarus could provide a way for him to take leadership of both countries, potentially offering a way to keep ruling while technically complying with the Russian Constitution.
Putin, Russia’s longest serving-leader since Joseph Stalin, has gone to great lengths to respect the letter, if not the spirit, of presidential term limits. After his first two terms in office, Putin stepped down to become prime minister in 2008, although he was widely understood to wield outsized power during President Dmitry Medvedev’s four-year stint in office.
While president, Medvedev signed a law extending presidential terms from four to six years. That means that Putin, who regained the presidency in 2012, could stretch two terms until 2024. The question of what happens then is the single-minded focus of Russian political elites.
Russian leaders are suddenly paying more attention to a 1999 treaty of union with Belarus, which was intended to create a confederation in which the countries would remain sovereign but would share a legislature and a currency—and, crucially, a head of state.
While little progress was made on the union beyond open borders and free movement of labor, Moscow has lately taken a renewed interest in the treaty.
But there’s a new wrinkle in the spat this time: Belarus could provide a way for Russian President Vladimir Putin to prolong his political career. Putin, who won re-election last year, is slated to leave office in 2024 under constitutionally mandated term limits. But a 20-year-old treaty with Belarus could provide a way for him to take leadership of both countries, potentially offering a way to keep ruling while technically complying with the Russian Constitution.
Putin, Russia’s longest serving-leader since Joseph Stalin, has gone to great lengths to respect the letter, if not the spirit, of presidential term limits. After his first two terms in office, Putin stepped down to become prime minister in 2008, although he was widely understood to wield outsized power during President Dmitry Medvedev’s four-year stint in office.
While president, Medvedev signed a law extending presidential terms from four to six years. That means that Putin, who regained the presidency in 2012, could stretch two terms until 2024. The question of what happens then is the single-minded focus of Russian political elites.
Russian leaders are suddenly paying more attention to a 1999 treaty of union with Belarus, which was intended to create a confederation in which the countries would remain sovereign but would share a legislature and a currency—and, crucially, a head of state.
While little progress was made on the union beyond open borders and free movement of labor, Moscow has lately taken a renewed interest in the treaty.
Belarus and Russia have historically been close. But when Moscow fomented a war in neighboring Ukraine, it spooked Minsk. Since then, Belarus has extended a number of olive branches to the West and pursued closer economic ties with China. Foreign Policy reported Thursday that Minsk was to lift its cap on the number of U.S. diplomats it would allow to serve in the country.
“There is really now a firm understanding in Minsk that unless they are able to make stable relations with several world powers, including the [European Union] and U.S., that in these times of political turmoil the Russians may deprive us of sovereignty,”
“There is really now a firm understanding in Minsk that unless they are able to make stable relations with several world powers, including the [European Union] and U.S., that in these times of political turmoil the Russians may deprive us of sovereignty,”
This is the article that might have started it all
Moscow is ready to take further steps on the path of building the Union State of Russia and Belarus, including to set up a common money issuance center, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday.
"It is time to assess what has happened to the Union Treaty since 1999, what has been done and what has failed to be done," he said, adding that there are two scenarios for further integration.
"It is time to assess what has happened to the Union Treaty since 1999, what has been done and what has failed to be done," he said, adding that there are two scenarios for further integration.
tass.com/politics
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