OFFICIAL: Donald Trump thread.

[HOUDINI563]

President in reality has little Control over the economy. The Presidents biggest influence by far is the choice of federal reserve chairman.

Carter as an example gets blamed for the economy while he was President. However he was prisoner of the Fed who was in the midst of a tightening policy during most of his 4 years in office. Low and behold Reagen was voted in, the Fed ended its tightening and began easing....dropping rates and increasing the money supply. Low and behold the economy began an expansionary period fueled by tax cuts. Unfortunately Reagen then spent the next three years increasing taxes to try to overcome ever increasing deficits.

The economy was doing very well under Obama. Understand he was handed the Great Recession from Bush. Obama had A LONG expansionary period which is still going strong.

Typically deficits rise and the market declines under a Republican Presidency. A Democrat as President odds are the market expands and deficits decline. We are due, overdue, for a recession.

[1bad65]

President in reality has little Control over the economy. The Presidents biggest influence by far is the choice of federal reserve chairman.

Not really.

For example, and you did concede this, tax policy has a big effect.

As do regulations. There's a reason why Obama only saw 2% GDP growth.

Carter as an example gets blamed for the economy while he was President. However he was prisoner of the Fed who was in the midst of a tightening policy during most of his 4 years in office. Low and behold Reagen was voted in, the Fed ended its tightening and began easing....dropping rates and increasing the money supply. Low and behold the economy began an expansionary period fueled by tax cuts. Unfortunately Reagen then spent the next three years increasing taxes to try to overcome ever increasing deficits.

This isn't good, or true for the most part.

Reagan did not raise taxes to overcome the deficit, as revenues ROSE after the tax cuts!!

Reagan raised taxes because he was promised by Congressional Democrats that in return for small tax increases he would see spending cuts from Congress.

In the words of Reagan's intelligent son, "My dad died waiting on those spending cuts".

Reagan cut regulations and taxes. Carter implemented many new regulations. That's a primary reason for their respective economies.

The economy was doing very well under Obama. Understand he was handed the Great Recession from Bush. Obama had A LONG expansionary period which is still going strong.

Again, 2% GDP is pathetic. That's the worst recovery ever in the history of the United States. That's not "doing well" or "going strong" by any stretch.

I don't know if you're ignorant of those facts, or you're spinning the facts you know. Care to tell?

As to being handed the recession, that wasn't Bush's doing. It was a combination of forcing banks to make stupid loans (via the Community Reinvestment Act, which just happened to be signed into law by Jimmy Carter), and by Clinton repealing Glass-Steagal and allowing credit-default swaps (I can cite the legislation if asked).

Typically deficits rise and the market declines under a Republican Presidency. A Democrat as President odds are the market expands and deficits decline. We are due, overdue, for a recession.

That's completely false.

Obama didn't double the national debt, and added more debt than ALL other Presidents combined, by having smaller deficits than previous Republican Presidents.

Lots of revisionist history, and some falsehoods, there. It's my duty to set the record straight.

May I ask on what you base your claim we are overdue for a recession?

Please, be as specific and detailed as possible, and ready to source if asked. Thanks.

[Tomjas]

Trump's foreign policies have contributed to instability in the ME which > higher oil prices

His tariff wars have created uncertainty in the financial markets which > Dow going down redundancies/losses in some areas

[HOUDINI563]

Since the Great Depression annualized stock market returns with a Democrat President is around 11%. Republican 1.7%.

Obama was handed several wars and the Great Recession.
During war time and massive economic downturns the debt typically increases.

Feds actions greatly effects economic activity. Massive tightening retracts economic activity. Loosening expands economic activity. During the Carter administration the Fed was tightening. During Reagen loosening. Luck of the draw.

Reagans Economic recovery Act of 1981 did not increase revenue. The deficit soared. He then spent the rest of his term raising taxes to overcome the damage done by these cuts. As follows:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...-Table2013.pdf

You repeat right wing entertainer talking points. Do some research of your own. You have been deluded.

[HOUDINI563]

The 1981 ERTA was designed to give tax breaks to all citizens in hopes of jumpstarting the economy and creating more wealth in the country. By the summer of 1982, the double dip recession, return of high interest rates, and ballooning deficits had convinced Congress that the Act had failed to create the results that the Reagan administration hoped. Largely at the initiative of Senate Finance Committee chairman Robert Dole, most of the personal tax cuts were backed out in September 1982 by the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA). When Reagan left office, the national debt had tripled, to around $2.6 trillion. Sociologist Monica Prasad contends that these kinds of tax cuts became popular among Republican candidates because the cuts were well received by voters and could help candidates get elected. Prasad argues that such major tax cuts are the biggest cause for the current U.S. national deficit.

[denium]

The 1981 ERTA was designed to give tax breaks to all citizens in hopes of jumpstarting the economy and creating more wealth in the country. By the summer of 1982, the double dip recession, return of high interest rates, and ballooning deficits had convinced Congress that the Act had failed to create the results that the Reagan administration hoped. Largely at the initiative of Senate Finance Committee chairman Robert Dole, most of the personal tax cuts were backed out in September 1982 by the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA). When Reagan left office, the national debt had tripled, to around $2.6 trillion. Sociologist Monica Prasad contends that these kinds of tax cuts became popular among Republican candidates because the cuts were well received by voters and could help candidates get elected. Prasad argues that such major tax cuts are the biggest cause for the current U.S. national deficit.

Didn't care about the deficit when your boy Obama was in charge eh?

FYI, when you copy/paste, the etiquette is to cite the original source.


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[denium]

This doesn't really hurt Trump. Most Americans support strong border controls. The hard left are a minority, despite how loudly they shout on Twitter.

Trump 2020 via landslide.

Told you.

[Scopedog]

Trump's foreign policies have contributed to instability in the ME

Have they? From where I stand in Bahrain he's been very buddy-buddy with the Saudis, he visited there to pal around with the king and has been tough with Iran which most Arabs love. On the other hand, the decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem provoked outrage, but it didn't really have any actual impact outside of the Gaza strip and it feels like the political fallout from that has more or less blown over by now. Conflicts in Syria and Yemen are still ongoing but Trump's not really done anything that's really shook up the region in any major way. Contrast that with the Arab Spring or the deposal of Gadaffi that took place under Obama's watch.

[Tomjas]

Have they? From where I stand in Bahrain he's been very buddy-buddy with the Saudis, he visited there to pal around with the king and has been tough with Iran which most Arabs love. On the other hand, the decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem provoked outrage, but it didn't really have any actual impact outside of the Gaza strip and it feels like the political fallout from that has more or less blown over by now. Conflicts in Syria and Yemen are still ongoing but Trump's not really done anything that's really shook up the region in any major way. Contrast that with the Arab Spring or the deposal of Gadaffi that took place under Obama's watch.

Iran is a major oil producer and markets take into account potential disruptions to supply

Trump is solely responsible for that

[Scopedog]

Iran is a major oil producer and markets take into account potential disruptions to supply

Trump is solely responsible for that

That much is definitely true, I'll concede that. I'm not so sure it counts as a "destabilising" action though given that Iran's relationships with its neighbours were already pretty hostile even with the nuclear deal in place.