The official lounge stock market & investment advice thread

[THE REED]

It is like Bitcoin. If you hear about it in public it is too late. In NY all the permits to cultivate the plant are all reserved and it is not even made legal yet.

It's nothing like Bitcoin IMO. It's an actual tangible product. EVen if those permits are reserved, once federally legally, revenues are going to go UP, way UP, which will drive stock prices..

[STREET CLEANER]

It's nothing like Bitcoin IMO. It's an actual tangible product. EVen if those permits are reserved, once federally legally, revenues are going to go UP, way UP, which will drive stock prices..

What I meant that if publicly people are saying to invest in it basically it is to late to make any real money.

That market is saturated. The marihuana stock is going to depend on how much restrictions it is going to have by the government. But it will make money

[Sugar Adam Ali]

Anybody on ANY weed stocks?

I know it's not necessarily a great short term buy, but how about long term?

What do some of these stocks like, Aurora, Canopy, Aphria, Tilray do when eventually Weed goes federally legal? No way they don't sky rocket?

No doubt that marijuana stocks will end up in a huge bubble, but is it now, 18 months away, 3 years from now, 10 years?

Few things to think about-
Marijuana when it’s all said and done is still a low margin commodity
Marijuana companies are trading at huge huge premiums and are the most expensive stocks to buy right now and by a wide margin. They make amazon and Netflix look dirt cheap. We are talking about companies with tens of millions in revenue and no earnings having market caps in the billions. Earnings have to grow at an astronomical pace just to justify today’s price, let alone any price appreciation over the next decade or 2. That’s what causes bubbles, all the future growth is priced in, yet people keep buying

95% or more of marijuana stocks will ultimately end up as losers and fail or get acquired on the cheap when the market matures.

When the market matures, it will have about 3 or 4 major players.

Conservative way to invest- buy the ETF called MJ. It’s a marijuana index stock and holds pretty much every notable stock in the sector. If you wanted to invest 10k, I would invest $500-1k now and keep adding on major drops, $250-1k 1k at a time

More aggressive approach- buy tillray, canopy growth, and cronos, buy some now, but be prepared for a 40-50% drop at anytime and to buy more when that happens.


Backdoor method- invest in big tobacco who will undoubtedly get more involved and have a much better infrastructure and resources. Altria on pullbacks, you can buy on a very cheap valuation, get a fat yield, probably lose principal short term as cigarettes lose revenue, but 20-30 years from now will be one of the major marijuana companies.

Personally I use MJ and slowly eyeing for a position in Altria

[Sugar Adam Ali]

Okay. it's 370 now.

Boeing has earnings of $17.85

At 370 a share that’s a p/e of 20.7. I’d be a buyer at a p/e level of 15, maybe even 16

Earnings would have to improve to and $24.60 to reach a p/e of 15

At p/e of 15 with earnings of 17.85 makes the price target $267, and since it’s a good company with huge moats, probably buy it once it got under $300

That’s if earnings stay unchanged.

Pretend this huge mess eats 10% of earnings, now it’s earnings of 16.07 and an extremely high p/e of 23 at the price of 370. And to be at a p/e of 15, that would make the price target be $241.


There is no margin of safety at current price levels.

Plus Boeing was on a huge run up anyway prior to the crashes and was due to comeback down on a pullback, and now with uncertainty about earnings, I would wait till it got closer to $300

[siablo14]

That’s a very probable outcome, if you hold long term but could be awhile before it’s back on track. The litigation, recalls, etc are going to drag down earnings, to what extent, I’m not sure, that’s why I’m waiting to hear guidance on the next quarterly earnings report

Cool. i will be watching.

[siablo14]

Boeing has earnings of $17.85

At 370 a share that’s a p/e of 20.7. I’d be a buyer at a p/e level of 15, maybe even 16

Earnings would have to improve to and $24.60 to reach a p/e of 15

At p/e of 15 with earnings of 17.85 makes the price target $267, and since it’s a good company with huge moats, probably buy it once it got under $300

That’s if earnings stay unchanged.

Pretend this huge mess eats 10% of earnings, now it’s earnings of 16.07 and an extremely high p/e of 23 at the price of 370. And to be at a p/e of 15, that would make the price target be $241.


There is no margin of safety at current price levels.

Plus Boeing was on a huge run up anyway prior to the crashes and was due to comeback down on a pullback, and now with uncertainty about earnings, I would wait till it got closer to $300

We will see. i think it's a good buy.

[THE REED]

How do the weed stocks make apple look cheap? The most expensive Ive seen is Tilray at $160, but aurora and aphria are around $10. Canopy around $45.. not too mention a lot of the lottery penny weed stocks.

[Sugar Adam Ali]

How do the weed stocks make apple look cheap? The most expensive Ive seen is Tilray at $160, but aurora and aphria are around $10. Canopy around $45.. not too mention a lot of the lottery penny weed stocks.

Looking at share price is a fools game.. all the share price is is number of shares, Apple might have 10 million, GE might have 100 million shares, etc..

Apple is worth roughly $188 a share, and is at 15x earnings..

Tilray at 70 is at over 1000x earnings..


It all depends on how many shares are outstanding..



Disney and Netflix are both worth around 150 billion.. Disney shares trade at about 14x earnings, Netflix at about 130x earnings.

Tilray at current price of of $64,, Apple current price of 188. To the novice investor, tilray is cheaper, but that’s a fools mistake as price is based on shares outstanding. For one share of Tilray you are getting losses of -.82 cents, with Apple you are getting earnings of over $12.

Look at Netflix and Disney.. both companies are worth about 150 billion.. Disney trades at 14x earnings, and Netflix trades at 131x earnings.. the average for S&P is 18x earnings.. Disney undervalued and Netflix overvalued yet they have the same marketcap.

The actual stock price compared to other stocks is fools gold. What is the price compared to earnings is the real question..

Each company has a different number of shares outstanding, that why when you hear about buybacks, it’s good for investor as shares outstanding shrink.

And stock dilution is the exact opposite.. and all the weed stocks haven’t even started to dilute yet.

Simply put., how many slices of the pie is there? With Apple there is very few, and they have a monster buyback program, shrinking the float every year.

100 billion company with 1 million shares equals 100,00 a share.. 100 billion company with 100 million shares outstanding equals 1,000 a share..
both are the same, the difference in price is only because of the amount of shares outstanding.

So when you say things like how is Apple cheaper than tilray, when tilray trades at $64 and Apple 188, you have to keep in mind how many pieces of pie and how much earnings both have. I’ll buy amazon at 88x earnings with over $20 in earnings compared to tilray with $64 and negative earnings. Once tilray gets positive earnings they will still trade at 100x earnings, and that’s if they grow earnings by over 100%.

So a company with a much higher price tag, might not have as many shares available but be the cheaper stock.

[THE REED]

Looking at share price is a fools game.. all the share price is is number of shares, Apple might have 10 million, GE might have 100 million shares, etc..

Apple is worth roughly $188 a share, and is at 15x earnings..

Tilray at 70 is at over 1000x earnings..


It all depends on how many shares are outstanding..



Disney and Netflix are both worth around 150 billion.. Disney shares trade at about 14x earnings, Netflix at about 130x earnings.

Tilray at current price of of $64,, Apple current price of 188. To the novice investor, tilray is cheaper, but that’s a fools mistake as price is based on shares outstanding. For one share of Tilray you are getting losses of -.82 cents, with Apple you are getting earnings of over $12.

Look at Netflix and Disney.. both companies are worth about 150 billion.. Disney trades at 14x earnings, and Netflix trades at 131x earnings.. the average for S&P is 18x earnings.. Disney undervalued and Netflix overvalued yet they have the same marketcap.

The actual stock price compared to other stocks is fools gold. What is the price compared to earnings is the real question..

Each company has a different number of shares outstanding, that why when you hear about buybacks, it’s good for investor as shares outstanding shrink.

And stock dilution is the exact opposite.. and all the weed stocks haven’t even started to dilute yet.

Simply put., how many slices of the pie is there? With Apple there is very few, and they have a monster buyback program, shrinking the float every year.

100 billion company with 1 million shares equals 100,00 a share.. 100 billion company with 100 million shares outstanding equals 1,000 a share..
both are the same, the difference in price is only because of the amount of shares outstanding.

So when you say things like how is Apple cheaper than tilray, when tilray trades at $64 and Apple 188, you have to keep in mind how many pieces of pie and how much earnings both have. I’ll buy amazon at 88x earnings with over $20 in earnings compared to tilray with $64 and negative earnings. Once tilray gets positive earnings they will still trade at 100x earnings, and that’s if they grow earnings by over 100%.

So a company with a much higher price tag, might not have as many shares available but be the cheaper stock.

I was actually under the impression a lot of the weed stocks were highly diluted due to it being illegal at time of startup, and therefore banks could not loan them money so they traded stock for cash to lots of investors?

On the rest of your info, good info and thanks!

[Sugar Adam Ali]

I was actually under the impression a lot of the weed stocks were highly diluted due to it being illegal at time of startup, and therefore banks could not loan them money so they traded stock for cash to lots of investors?

On the rest of your info, good info and thanks!

Yes weed stocks are highly diluted and will continue to dilute in the future.

There is so many warrants, options, convertible bonds, etc that you would really have to go thru the annual and quarterly reports and figure out each companies exact equity structure, and to the extent of future dilution.