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Preview This appeared on a site but It is 2 long 2 post here so I cut it down to fit)
JT is just so frustrating to watch and root for because he constantly performs at half speed and allows lesser fighter to stay close to even with him. And if he comes in over confident and out of shape then it will happen again when he meets Sam Peter.
Peter has hunger and power and in this day that can be enough to win a world heavyweight championship. When James schooled guys like Barkley and Williams, though, on the way to stoppage victories, he did so while laying on the ropes and deftly rolling with punches before countering with lighting shots, many of which gradually and subtly debilitated his opponents. He drained them slowly and methodically like a surgeon and set them up for brutal defeats later in the fights. He could do the same thing with Peter, too, he definitely can, and I expect this fight in many ways to be an early mismatch that sees Peter swinging for the fences with wide shots that would **** out less mobile, less slick heavyweights than James. James will have his moments where he slips and counters Peter with stinging shots that momentarily stun him and allow for James to pile on several more at a time. He probably won't hurt Peter very much in the process in the way that a Foreman might but he will sting him in a way that could slow him down and daze him enough as to where James can add even more punches, including well placed body shots. In a four round fight it's James winning 3 to 1
This is where it gets interesting, though, because this is a 12 rounder, not a 4.
Take the Rachman fight as an example of why JT is so frustrating. I mean, that was a fight that James had well within his grasp and he let it go much more than Hasim took it from him. James is very much a con artist in the ring and I mean that with a great amount of respect. James is the type of guy who has such awesome defensive capabilities that he can lay in there and make you think he is going to do much more than he is actually prepared to do (Or as Clay-Bey -a fan of old kung-fu movies- calls it: The Art of Fighting Without Fighting). James lay on the ropes against Hasim and basically shoulder rolled and countered his way into buying much needed time. Hasim seemed to me to fall victim as much to the perception of what James might do to him as much or more than what James actually did do. Hasim is a big, strong guy with a telephone pole jab but he seemed to catch himself before letting loose on James. In a nutshell, he didn't want to be rope a doped by a smaller guy who probably carried a little more sting in his punches than Hasim thought before he felt them. There were several times late in the fight when the decision was definitely up for grabs and while I go back a good ways with James and wanted him to win the fight I found myself at several points trying to help a guy that was being suckered by a con that I saw unfolding right before my eyes through the TV screen.
"Let your hands go, man! He's bluffing!" I said to no one in particular. He didn't let his hands go, of course, nearly enough to overwhelm James when JT was certainly vulnerable to being outworked if not actually "beaten up" and both guys escaped with a draw as a result.
Now, if Peter has some smart cornermen in there with him on Saturday as well as tip top physical conditioning and some toughness on his side then I think he needs to be told to let his hands go and take advantage of James if and when James is laying back on the ropes later in the fight. Use his strength when it really counts and attempt to wear James down physically as much as mentally because no matter how good or slick or cagey a man is his body can only do what it is capable of doing. Your mind may know that you are Toney, defensive and counter punching extraordinaire, but if your body isn't feeling it then that will be all you will have. Offense counts more than defense when you really come down to it and because of that there comes a time in every fight when you simply have to land more punches than your opponent does. Because I don't care who it is, if you are roughing it up on the inside with a guy that is clearly thirty or forty pounds over the weight he should be at when he is already a good seventy pounds over the weight he was best at and you yourself are an exceptionally strong man who is naturally in the high 240's or low 250's then you are going to come out fresher and more able to push yourself as the rounds go by. In other words use that size and strength against the man. Don't let him sucker you and bluff you and make you hesitate and think like a smaller man would. Don't think so much about trying to be technical with James because if that's not your game then that's not your game and you are not going to outthink a guy like James in a fight like that, especially when it's not a thing you are accustomed to using. He wants you to do that.
JT gets all these guys so gun shy it is almost comical. Guinn, Hasim, and others. They know what to do in there but he gets them thinking so much that they begin to second guess themselves. Hasim didn't figure that out until it was much too late. Do you think the 73 version of Foreman would wait around and just look at James while hesitating on the inside trying to match him sharp punch for sharp punch?? Ali did it to a certain degree against George but Ali was a big man naturally and he was stronger and more resilient than most realized he was and he fought back off the ropes after some tough rounds and succeeded with that. He had the height and the stamina to outlast a guy that tried to maul him like George did.
If Ali had started out as a 160 pounder then it surely would have been a different story back in Africa.
In my opinion I think James is supposed to win this fight. He was supposed to win the fight with Rachman, too, I thought, so it all truly does come down to him being fully prepared and I don't go by prefight interviews with any fighters anymore, either, because I know from experience that we all say whatever it is we are supposed to say. You will never hear a guy say "Well, I hope to do well in this fight but I have been kind of slacking off in the gym and have skipped way too many days of roadwork. I just can't leave those darn cheetos alone, either, you know? So cheesy and crisp. Gotta' have em', man."
I have heard James is (again) saying in his pre-fight interviews that he "feels great," "he's ready," etc. and that's all well and good but I only want to actually see him, and not read about him, doing his thing the way he is capable. I myself, all things considered, think the fight goes one of two ways.
Ready?
First scenario is that Peter comes out full of confidence and power and rips into James like a wild animal. James tries to lay back and counter as usual but he finds that Peter is a little bit meaner and hungrier and certainly stronger than anybody he has ever faced before and he finds himself being a little bit more careful than he ever thought he would in a ring. He lays on the ropes expecting to counter the slower, more methodical man into submission but he finds that age 38 isn't age 28. He gets through with some sharp counter shots and feels good at times but Peters' strength gradually wears him down and even though he may never admit it he could find himself sitting on that stool between the middle rounds thinking about how he wished he had eaten a little bit better for this fight and ran a little bit more and been five or six years younger. He will hate the fact that he is being simply overpowered by a guy whose skill level, truth be told, still isn't a fraction of what his is.
That version of Toney is savvy enough to stick around and if he gets stopped it will be only because he is too weary to really battle back and the ref will see that the spark on this night anyway, is not enough to hold off such a strong and determined cat.
On the other hand there is another scenario that is possible.
Maybe James has been bothered by the fact that he realizes he let the fight with Hasim slip away from him when it was very likely he could have worked his way, with some determination and drive like he used to regularly show, to a decision victory and the WBC title. He could have successfully defended against Maskaev and would be right now looking at a multimillion dollar fight with 1 of the big champs. For a guy that turned professional way back in 88 and who was at one time the pound for pound top fighter in the world only to be written off halfway through his career only to now be given a third big chance at a heavyweight star it would seem to me that if there was ever a time in his career where he could say he is in a do or die situation with excuses being no longer acceptable it is right now. As a once great champion he should find a way to stop the trend of former legends being brought down once and for all by the young lions of the boxing world. If he can produce the type of counterpunching and sharpness that he most likely still has in him then I could see him doing exactly what I talked about earlier, bluffing Peter, schooling him, beating him up and down while being inflicted with less punishment than he gives out. Grinding it out when the going gets tough, unlike many older fighters that accept it in midstream that their day is gone.
If anybody has the skills, the courage, the toughness to stop cycle it's a guy just like James.
I am not a betting man but if I were I with #2.
JT is just so frustrating to watch and root for because he constantly performs at half speed and allows lesser fighter to stay close to even with him. And if he comes in over confident and out of shape then it will happen again when he meets Sam Peter.
Peter has hunger and power and in this day that can be enough to win a world heavyweight championship. When James schooled guys like Barkley and Williams, though, on the way to stoppage victories, he did so while laying on the ropes and deftly rolling with punches before countering with lighting shots, many of which gradually and subtly debilitated his opponents. He drained them slowly and methodically like a surgeon and set them up for brutal defeats later in the fights. He could do the same thing with Peter, too, he definitely can, and I expect this fight in many ways to be an early mismatch that sees Peter swinging for the fences with wide shots that would **** out less mobile, less slick heavyweights than James. James will have his moments where he slips and counters Peter with stinging shots that momentarily stun him and allow for James to pile on several more at a time. He probably won't hurt Peter very much in the process in the way that a Foreman might but he will sting him in a way that could slow him down and daze him enough as to where James can add even more punches, including well placed body shots. In a four round fight it's James winning 3 to 1
This is where it gets interesting, though, because this is a 12 rounder, not a 4.
Take the Rachman fight as an example of why JT is so frustrating. I mean, that was a fight that James had well within his grasp and he let it go much more than Hasim took it from him. James is very much a con artist in the ring and I mean that with a great amount of respect. James is the type of guy who has such awesome defensive capabilities that he can lay in there and make you think he is going to do much more than he is actually prepared to do (Or as Clay-Bey -a fan of old kung-fu movies- calls it: The Art of Fighting Without Fighting). James lay on the ropes against Hasim and basically shoulder rolled and countered his way into buying much needed time. Hasim seemed to me to fall victim as much to the perception of what James might do to him as much or more than what James actually did do. Hasim is a big, strong guy with a telephone pole jab but he seemed to catch himself before letting loose on James. In a nutshell, he didn't want to be rope a doped by a smaller guy who probably carried a little more sting in his punches than Hasim thought before he felt them. There were several times late in the fight when the decision was definitely up for grabs and while I go back a good ways with James and wanted him to win the fight I found myself at several points trying to help a guy that was being suckered by a con that I saw unfolding right before my eyes through the TV screen.
"Let your hands go, man! He's bluffing!" I said to no one in particular. He didn't let his hands go, of course, nearly enough to overwhelm James when JT was certainly vulnerable to being outworked if not actually "beaten up" and both guys escaped with a draw as a result.
Now, if Peter has some smart cornermen in there with him on Saturday as well as tip top physical conditioning and some toughness on his side then I think he needs to be told to let his hands go and take advantage of James if and when James is laying back on the ropes later in the fight. Use his strength when it really counts and attempt to wear James down physically as much as mentally because no matter how good or slick or cagey a man is his body can only do what it is capable of doing. Your mind may know that you are Toney, defensive and counter punching extraordinaire, but if your body isn't feeling it then that will be all you will have. Offense counts more than defense when you really come down to it and because of that there comes a time in every fight when you simply have to land more punches than your opponent does. Because I don't care who it is, if you are roughing it up on the inside with a guy that is clearly thirty or forty pounds over the weight he should be at when he is already a good seventy pounds over the weight he was best at and you yourself are an exceptionally strong man who is naturally in the high 240's or low 250's then you are going to come out fresher and more able to push yourself as the rounds go by. In other words use that size and strength against the man. Don't let him sucker you and bluff you and make you hesitate and think like a smaller man would. Don't think so much about trying to be technical with James because if that's not your game then that's not your game and you are not going to outthink a guy like James in a fight like that, especially when it's not a thing you are accustomed to using. He wants you to do that.
JT gets all these guys so gun shy it is almost comical. Guinn, Hasim, and others. They know what to do in there but he gets them thinking so much that they begin to second guess themselves. Hasim didn't figure that out until it was much too late. Do you think the 73 version of Foreman would wait around and just look at James while hesitating on the inside trying to match him sharp punch for sharp punch?? Ali did it to a certain degree against George but Ali was a big man naturally and he was stronger and more resilient than most realized he was and he fought back off the ropes after some tough rounds and succeeded with that. He had the height and the stamina to outlast a guy that tried to maul him like George did.
If Ali had started out as a 160 pounder then it surely would have been a different story back in Africa.
In my opinion I think James is supposed to win this fight. He was supposed to win the fight with Rachman, too, I thought, so it all truly does come down to him being fully prepared and I don't go by prefight interviews with any fighters anymore, either, because I know from experience that we all say whatever it is we are supposed to say. You will never hear a guy say "Well, I hope to do well in this fight but I have been kind of slacking off in the gym and have skipped way too many days of roadwork. I just can't leave those darn cheetos alone, either, you know? So cheesy and crisp. Gotta' have em', man."
I have heard James is (again) saying in his pre-fight interviews that he "feels great," "he's ready," etc. and that's all well and good but I only want to actually see him, and not read about him, doing his thing the way he is capable. I myself, all things considered, think the fight goes one of two ways.
Ready?
First scenario is that Peter comes out full of confidence and power and rips into James like a wild animal. James tries to lay back and counter as usual but he finds that Peter is a little bit meaner and hungrier and certainly stronger than anybody he has ever faced before and he finds himself being a little bit more careful than he ever thought he would in a ring. He lays on the ropes expecting to counter the slower, more methodical man into submission but he finds that age 38 isn't age 28. He gets through with some sharp counter shots and feels good at times but Peters' strength gradually wears him down and even though he may never admit it he could find himself sitting on that stool between the middle rounds thinking about how he wished he had eaten a little bit better for this fight and ran a little bit more and been five or six years younger. He will hate the fact that he is being simply overpowered by a guy whose skill level, truth be told, still isn't a fraction of what his is.
That version of Toney is savvy enough to stick around and if he gets stopped it will be only because he is too weary to really battle back and the ref will see that the spark on this night anyway, is not enough to hold off such a strong and determined cat.
On the other hand there is another scenario that is possible.
Maybe James has been bothered by the fact that he realizes he let the fight with Hasim slip away from him when it was very likely he could have worked his way, with some determination and drive like he used to regularly show, to a decision victory and the WBC title. He could have successfully defended against Maskaev and would be right now looking at a multimillion dollar fight with 1 of the big champs. For a guy that turned professional way back in 88 and who was at one time the pound for pound top fighter in the world only to be written off halfway through his career only to now be given a third big chance at a heavyweight star it would seem to me that if there was ever a time in his career where he could say he is in a do or die situation with excuses being no longer acceptable it is right now. As a once great champion he should find a way to stop the trend of former legends being brought down once and for all by the young lions of the boxing world. If he can produce the type of counterpunching and sharpness that he most likely still has in him then I could see him doing exactly what I talked about earlier, bluffing Peter, schooling him, beating him up and down while being inflicted with less punishment than he gives out. Grinding it out when the going gets tough, unlike many older fighters that accept it in midstream that their day is gone.
If anybody has the skills, the courage, the toughness to stop cycle it's a guy just like James.
I am not a betting man but if I were I with #2.
....and I think that's why he's going to be stopped for the first time in his career tonight.
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