So I did an experiment tonight guys.... Is boxing TOO predictable?

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  • YoungManRumble
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    #1

    So I did an experiment tonight guys.... Is boxing TOO predictable?

    The experiment was almost successful... I parlayed EVERY single fight that 365 offered on this Saturday night. And not only that, I tried to pick the method of victory in each fight and it gave me those for all but one ultra favored up and comer under-card guy (Anthony Tomlinson was only available money line at -2000).

    I never bothered to bet anything real since I knew it wouldn't win. It would have only paid like $21 and change but at 30/1 odds (higher true odds) it shouldn't have even come this close. Was less about trying to cash a ticket, and more about seeing how mismatched an average night of boxing is..

    I didn't even know any of the domestic British fighters and barely knew anything about the cruiserweight fight other than boxrec'd and saw the opponent was old. Never seen the other Gary Russel guy either. My system for picking them consisted of choosing the favorite with negative american odds, then I'd pick whatever method of victory was also most favored. Took about a minute or two. An overall terrible strategy in general especially in the long run. Kid Ghalahad to win outright was only like -350 -400 range which isn't even that bad in an idiot lottery parlay. This was last minute in the late afternoon too so I'm sure there would have been better odds a few days ago. Anyway here's the ticket. 9/10



    That is all. Hope you all had/have a good Saturday night/Sunday Morning.

    Also it's funny because they are better picks than I did for PICKEM cause sometimes I like to roll with the underdog in a fight or two. Always picking the wrong side in those and missing the upset however.
    Last edited by YoungManRumble; 02-09-2020, 01:30 AM.
  • Articulateboxin
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    #2
    Hahah when I started to read this I was thinking, there is no freaking way somebody would pick Galahad by KO!

    Unlucky though, try again next time! It only needs to work once in the 30 times for profit haha

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    • Kezzer
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      #3
      Galahad was really impressive, in my opinion he was robbed in the last fight too.

      He’s an odd one because he doesn’t look that impressive but is clearly better than he appears!

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      • YoungManRumble
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        #4
        Originally posted by Articulateboxin
        Hahah when I started to read this I was thinking, there is no freaking way somebody would pick Galahad by KO!

        Unlucky though, try again next time! It only needs to work once in the 30 times for profit haha
        Haha yeah I never would have personally, especially since it paid +money odds which would have gone against the theme of the favorite picks. I considered outright for a moment in case it was a draw (would push to a 9 fight parlay) But again wasn't trying to win really, and, in for a penny in for a pound.

        Maybe I'll try it once a week if there's 7-10 fights at least, ideally with specific way to win the fight bets. No more than .20 cents to $1 though as this is by far the worst way to gamble on sports bar none. Still I feel super lucky to have hit 90% of it lol.


        Originally posted by Kezzer
        Galahad was really impressive, in my opinion he was robbed in the last fight too.

        He’s an odd one because he doesn’t look that impressive but is clearly better than he appears!
        Yeah he beat Marrero up pretty relentlessly. No suspect UK stoppage or anything. I would have pulled him out if I was in his corner. Didn't need any more punishment and was never going to win the fight.
        Last edited by YoungManRumble; 02-09-2020, 01:47 AM.

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        • asgarth
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          #5
          no, I keep records of most bets, but this weekend overall was an outlier.

          Last weekend we had:
          Sean McComb KO | 4.00
          Makabu Decision | 7.00
          Diaz Decision | 4.00
          R. Angulo ML/Decision | 7,50/23.00

          The week before had both Hurd and Garcia winning decisions which had odds > 4.00.

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          • YoungManRumble
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            #6
            Originally posted by asgarth
            no, I keep records of most bets, but this weekend overall was an outlier.

            Last weekend we had:
            Sean McComb KO | 4.00
            Makabu Decision | 7.00
            Diaz Decision | 4.00
            R. Angulo ML/Decision | 7,50/23.00

            The week before had both Hurd and Garcia winning decisions which had odds > 4.00.
            True. These kind of cards only line up once every couple months I'd imagine. Sometimes Showtime/Top Rank have some really soft opponents but Match Room provided me a good deal this weekend.

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            • Nash out
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              #7
              It's hard to win long bets long term, but I always land on the occasional big single. I remember about two years ago, two absolute powder puff fighters had a 10 round fight, it was a lower undercard event. They could fight one million times and it would go the distance, it was like Paulie Malignaggi vs Paulie Malignaggi. i got even odds and laid down £500 on it. Easiest money I ever made.

              I also like to keep an eye out of shock wins. I had £50 on Thompson to beat Price at 5-1 winning £250, and then £100 on him winning the rematch at 7-2 winning £350. When Price was unbeaten his odds of a fight vs Fury were down to bet on. I had £800 on Fury at 11-4, which had they fought and Fury beat him, which he would have, that would have paid £2,200 profit.

              I also bet £20 on draws (pays £400 approx) when I sense one. I didn't land on Canelo vs Golovkin 1, but did for Lara vs Castana, and Jessie Vargas two draws in a row, and Povetkin vs Hunter. I take the odd L. But I make good money betting boxing

              Won big on Fury vs Wlad, lost £50 on Wlad vs Joshua. Won big on Whyte beating Chisora by split decision in fight 1 as I sensed it coming with Whyte being the home fighter and I thought it would be very close (I had Chisora winning) Won big on Rungvisai beating Gonzales in the rematch (not first fight sadly) Had Price knocking down Povetkin whilst losing, don't know why I went for that, so a bit of luck there.

              Had a ton on Garcia beating Broner on points as Broner doesn't throw much but he is a resilient MF to his credit. Had Loma beating Campbell on points (when you see a one sided fight odds, also check the method of victory odds if you fancy something) Lost on Ruiz beating Joshua 2, but came in big on the draw of Povetkin vs Hunter to cancel that out. Didn't bet on Fury vs Wilder and won't in the rematch as Wilder's power would just have me on edge constantly.

              Had Jacobs beating Devyrachenko by SD and MD to boost my chances. Had a lot of Price to beat Allen at 2-1, which shocked me. I win around £5000 per year boxing. Win around £500 per year at football (soccer) and never gamble what I can't afford. I even do some really small bets just for the fun of it.

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              • Ray*
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                #8
                I hate betting because it takes the fun out of things for me. But if I have silly monies laying around then I would do this one day.

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                • YoungManRumble
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                  #9
                  Well it's another disgusting weekend HEAVY favorites when I look at the slate.

                  Other than the Chocolatito/Yafai fight (-125 -115 for me currently), and this Keith Hunter Sanjarbek Rakhmanov (-250 +175) rematch after Hunter's SD win. Out of the 16 total fights to bet on for Friday/Saturday on bet365, if you make the MAX 14 leg parlay with all the heavy favs on the money line you can't even get it to +money, still -106 LOL

                  And yes I realize parlays don't win in the long run or necessarily ever really that wasn't the point of the thread Nash out

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