Comments Thread For: McGirt: Kovalev Will "Detour From Deep Waters" vs. Canelo

[mike1010011]

Alright, seeing as how I'm outta town and may not have a shot to later, I'll post my prediction for what will go down (you know, because I am sure everyone is waiting for my opinion)...

Rounds 1-2
Silent rounds, both guys just feeling each other out. Nothing of consequence landed, cautious start to the fight.
Judges Cards: 2-0 Canelo, 1-1, 1-1
Fan Consensus: 1-1

Rounds 3-4
Canelo, having gotten Kovalev’s timing down, begins to work his way in. Effectively slips the jab and works his way to the body. He lands some decent combos and is controlling the tempo. The announcers begin to lament that if Kovalev doesn’t change things up soon it may be a short night
Judges Cards: 4-0, 3-1, 3-1 Canelo
Fan Consensus: 3-1 Canelo

Rounds 5-7
Having felt Canelo’s power, and feeling confident that he can walk through it, Kovalev begins to let go with the offense a bit more. He is now walking down Canelo and landing flush with a number of 1-2s, as Canelo gets on his bicycle and is on the back foot. Unfortunately for Kovalev, the judges have a natural inclination towards mean regression, and not wanting to score three in a row for the B-side. Each will give Kovalev 2 of the 3 rounds, but in the name of not scoring too wide for the dog none give him the three he actually earned
Judges Cards: 5-2, 4-3, 4-3 Canelo
Fan Consensus: 4-3 Kovalev

Round 8
Weathering Kovalev’s storm Canelo launches a comeback and has a great round. Mutliple combos to the body and dictating tempo Canelo has his best round of the fight; the announcers start to wonder whether or not Kovalev’s stamina is good enough to make it to the end and if his age is starting to play a factor.
Judges Cards: 6-2, 5-3, 5-3 Canelo
Fan Consensus: 4-4

Round 9
Feeling confident in what he did Canelo takes the round off, Kovalev doesn’t press the issue. A silent round with little to nothing of note taking place. Two of the judges will score it for Kovalev though, partly because he did better than the last round partly because one of them already has Canelo with a big lead and its best not to have a really wide card.
Judges Cards: 6-3, 6-3, 5-4 Canelo
Fan Consensus: 4-4-1

Round 10
Kovalev does most of the work in this round as Canelo is just playing defense. Kovalev throws more and lands more, but Canelo makes him miss a fair amount of times. Canelo doesn’t really land anything of note, but is given the round by one judge simply because Kovalev doesn’t land at will.
Judges Cards: 7-3, 6-4, Canelo 5-5
Fan Consensus: 5-4-1 Kovalev

Rounds 11-12
The championship rounds are each battles back and forth. Both men letting their hands go, both landing flush, the crowd is hyped and its great action as both men finally are fighting at a high level in the same round. They are both roughly equal rounds- with Kovalev landing a bit better in the 11th than 12th, though Canelo being fresher and moving better in the final round. All judges split these last two.
Judges Cards: 8-4, 7-5, Canelo 6-6 Draw
Fan Consensus: 6-5-1 Kovalev

Aftermath
Canelo wins a majority decision, says its for Mexico and his fans, when asked who he’ll fight next says he wants the toughest challenges out there. When GGG is brought up he’ll say he already proved he is better but if that’s who the fans want then maybe he’ll make it happen. Kovalev is effusive in his praise, though feels like he clearly won the fight. Says he is unsure who he’ll fight next or whether he will retire. Announcers try to hype it as FOTY.
Fans flock to the internet, most claiming Kovalev should have won or it should have been a draw. Rounds 5-7 are rehashed and everyone points out whatever specific aspect of the archaic scoring system that best supports their argument.
Canelo fans claim this solidifies him as FOTD and clearly and ATG, the anti-Canelo crowd rebuts with him mostly making his name against old fighters and getting numerous advantages with the judges. They bicker like little kids and just as with the fight itself, nothing really is solved.

I really enjoyed your breakdown and you made some really good points,but I have to disagree with the idea that kovalev is going to be landing flush on canelo,and canelo is still going to be on his feet. Kovalev regularly puts down and ko's career light heavies. Canelo has shown that he has a good chin,but he's never been on the receiving end of that kind of power. If canelo wants to win,he can't get hit. If he decides to slug it out with a light heavyweight ko artist,the last thing he will remember that night is a right hand flying at his face.

[Timur78]

Being hit on the balls is everybody's kryptonite...

[Metacom]

Canelo is a good fighter but this fight is not good for him. I watched him train and wasn’t impressed with his work rate. He is carrying too much weight and giving up too much range. I think Kovalev will batter him or even take him out

Let's be real.

The only reason Canelo is favored is because all he has to do to win is still be standing at the final bell.

I would bet on this fight if it wasn't for that reality