My Fight Prediction For Canelo vs Kovalev

[boliodogs]

I want to get this out of the way early for two reasons. First one being so that it doesnt just seem like I am band wagon jumping after the fact, and the second is so that everyone that has a different opinion can say I told you so after all is said and done. Ok here we go.

Unless Kovalev has a sudden mind lapse and he fights like a 30 fight open class amateur, he should have no problems winning this fight. Canelo Alvarez asked for a challenge and he has one for this upcoming fight. Canelo will have to get inside of the reach of a fighter that is much taller than him and has a very good jab. Sergey Kovalevs jab comes at you with decent speed and can be fine tuned to his desire. He can blast you with a sharp and very stiff jab or he can double and triple it up on you while moving in a half circle. A lot of fighters do not double or triple up on jobs that are meant to hit you. They are simply range finders. Canelo will have to exploit the game plan that Andre Ward used in the second fight to smother the reach of Kovalev and land some devastating body and head shots. Whatever it is going to take to lower the gas tank on Kovalev. The pace will need to be fast and Canelo will need to be in control, and I believe that will be very difficult to do.

Sergey Kovalev is still the Krusher in many respects. If Canelo does not have the power to keep Kovalev honest I can see Kovalev going for a stop before the 8th round, where Kovalev tends to begin to get the weakest. The fight is not completely unwinnable for Canelo. He has a chance as long as he does not take long inactive periods standing at range with Kovalev. It is a simple fight plan from a simple fighters perspective for Kovalev. The older you get the more simple you want to make your fights. The Krusher is coming off of a quick turn around after he outlasted a very determined Anthony Yarde. Canelo I think is a much better finisher than Yarde and will not waste the over zealous shots Yarde threw when he saw that Kovalev was hurt. If Kovalev can keep Canelo at range, minimize the fight to the center of the ring only, and watch for body shots and uppercuts after missed punches, the night should go very simple and uneventful unless the decision to go for the stoppage is made. So my decision goes to:

Sergey Kovalev - Unanimous Decision/ TKO stoppage in 7

I don't trust this fight and think Kovalev may have been payed lots of money to lose. A Kovalev win will cost lots of powerful rich boxing people lots of millions. I wouldn't bet on Kovalev but I hope he wins.

[j0zef]

Disagree with most of the basis of your analysis. Kovalev is not "much taller" than Kovalev. He's 6", or 2 inches taller than Golovkin was. He has similar reach to Golovkin (same between 70-75" estimated"), and arguably similar skill and power. Most people thought G's jab was better for most of their careers. But fans are fickle, and since G just got outjabbed by SD, while Kovalev knocked out Yarde by a "jab", most fools will claim that Sergey's jab is infinitely better.

Kovalev never had Golovkin's punch selection, stalking instinct, chin, and is susceptible to body punches as we have seen. In short, this will be a familiar fight for Canelo. There's a reason he's a 5-1 favorite on most betting sites (link)

[eco1]

Kovalev will win every round convincingly so a draw

well, if Kovalev knocks down Clenelo and then goes on it win 8 rounds but CLen get up and hits Kovalev in the balls a few times, then after the fight Clenelo says he is applying to become an American Citizen, Canelo by UD or Split decision

[Freeworld124]

Disagree with most of the basis of your analysis. Kovalev is not "much taller" than Kovalev. He's 6", or 2 inches taller than Golovkin was. He has similar reach to Golovkin (same between 70-75" estimated"), and arguably similar skill and power. Most people thought G's jab was better for most of their careers. But fans are fickle, and since G just got outjabbed by SD, while Kovalev knocked out Yarde by a "jab", most fools will claim that Sergey's jab is infinitely better.

Kovalev never had Golovkin's punch selection, stalking instinct, chin, and is susceptible to body punches as we have seen. In short, this will be a familiar fight for Canelo. There's a reason he's a 5-1 favorite on most betting sites (link)

Being 6' feet tall compared to a 5'9" person is a pretty significant difference. Punch selection did not get GGG very convincing wins against Canelo but Kovalev throws the better straight punches. All you need to win any fight are your straight punches. The quickest route between points A and B will always be the straight line. So if Kovalev maintains distance and throws his straight punches, the night should be easy for him.

[Freeworld124]

I don't trust this fight and think Kovalev may have been payed lots of money to lose. A Kovalev win will cost lots of powerful rich boxing people lots of millions. I wouldn't bet on Kovalev but I hope he wins.

I have the same concern. It's a weird climate for boxing right now.

[BLArmy]

bump..................

[Street]

This didn't age well

[juggernaut666]

I’d say Canelo 11th round knockout .