Does any one know the percentage of underdog boxing winners in a given year?

[Frankd]

I have been searching for the average amount of times that an underdog wins in boxing, but I can't find that number anywhere. Does anyone have a clue? Thanks!

[Eff Pandas]

I'm not aware of anyone who's tracking THAT many fights to come up with any meaningful data, but if there is let me know where its at cuz I'd be curious to check it out myself.

I suspect you'd have to research it & compile the info yourself. Which would obviously be quite the task.

[Frankd]

That's exactly what I have begun. Starting with the next upcoming events I'm going to be tracking underdog wins. As for myself, the last time I bet on 5 underdogs, 2 of them won. And on my first ever bet I won on a +1100 underdog.

[Robbie Barrett]

I'm guessing it happens much more in the bottom of the card fights, with the fighters nobody knows.

[Citizen Koba]

I have been searching for the average amount of times that an underdog wins in boxing, but I can't find that number anywhere. Does anyone have a clue? Thanks!

Don't know the answer to that my man, but I am a part of running the prediction league on here and I can tell you that compared to last year and 2017 it seems like we had an awful lot of upsets this year comparatively. We cover nearly all the major fights and have the betting odds on the OP of each thread so it should be fairly easy to check.


Here's a list of all the PICK EM threads for 2018 and '19, you wanna trawl through 'em to get some data be my guest...

https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/search.php?searchid=7373000

If I had to guess it'd be somewhere in the 1/4, 1/5 range if you include those fights where the 'dog is in the sub 2/1 range... when you're talking about the kinda Ruiz - Joshua upsets maybe 1/20ish... as a (very) loose rule of thumb I'd say that given the random **** that happens in boxing, freak injuries and other weird **** a dog probably never has less than about a 5% of winning.

[Combat Talk Radio]

I have been searching for the average amount of times that an underdog wins in boxing, but I can't find that number anywhere. Does anyone have a clue? Thanks!

That's exactly what I have begun. Starting with the next upcoming events I'm going to be tracking underdog wins. As for myself, the last time I bet on 5 underdogs, 2 of them won. And on my first ever bet I won on a +1100 underdog.

I have a thread that people keep ducking where I list all of the high profile underdog upsets. It doesn't happen often: average two times a year.

Can we give it up for the UNDERDOGS a minute?

[Citizen Koba]

I have a thread that people keep ducking where I list all of the high profile underdog upsets. It doesn't happen often: average two times a year.

Can we give it up for the UNDERDOGS a minute?

Shit man, that's a good thread. How have I never noticed it? Green K to you, sir.

[Combat Talk Radio]

Shit man, that's a good thread. How have I never noticed it? Green K to you, sir.

As expected, it happens way less in UFC. They seem to do a much better job of matchmaking to where the vast majority of their fights aren't gross mismatches, or have the appearance of same, like boxing does at times.

The only real gross mismatches I can think of over there was Northcutt/Barbarena and both CM Punk fights.

[-Kev-]

I think it fluctuates because there’s so many variables. You can compile data for 10 years and every year you will probably have different percentages, too different to give any definitive answer. Certain years I remember were like the year of the underdog, other years you’ll have most of the favorites winning. In recent years, I remember I think it was 2007, 2008, 2009, those years had a lot of underdogs winning iirc. Really big fights where the underdogs won, and even undercard fights.

To name a few off the top of my head in those years:
Cotto v Marg
Hop v Pavlik
Pac v DLH
Mosley v Marg
Donaire v Vic
Linares v Salgado
Williams v Quintana I
Cintron v Angulo
Pavlik v Taylor
Ward v Kessler
Maidana v Ortiz
Vic v Mijares

[-Kev-]

Hopkins had a case for upsetting 5 different fighters in a row.

Taylor, Tarver, Winky, Calzaghe, Pavlik.

He was underdog vs all 5 of those fighters.