David McWater & His Moneyball-Like Tactics In Measuring Prospects

[Eff Pandas]

All valid points, WBSS haven't handled things well.

I think its a clusterf#ck.

But Ivan is the only guy to pull out which seems questionable.

Idk what's questionable about it when the WBSS isn't willing to escrow even a % of the money.

If anything I think it shows his manager is looking out for him as is his job.

You can't NOT f#cking pay people or be sketchy regardless if you got a nice light show & a fancy looking Ali trophy.

And again I'm speaking about this as a fan of both & a guy who was defending the WBSS until they were admitting guys haven't been payed months after a fight & the semifinals weren't scheduled as planned.

Ridiculous that he pulled out in Jan but WBSS still promoting the fight, it looks like amateur hour all day long with them recently.

Yea I don't f#cking get it.

And if you remember the day after Ivan pulled out the WBSS was like "oh yea Josh vs Ivan is happening....." like they were entirely unaware of the situation in general & specifically behind the scenes.

Screams of trying to save face, steering public sentiment & making Ivan look like a ***** to the fans who think every fight that doesn't happen is cuz one guy is a ***** &/or don't believe boxing is a business at all.

[Eff Pandas]

Heres one of their scouting reports

Here's another scouting report for the cat who GBP just signed.

[The Gambler1981]

Money ball is a very stats oriented number system, there are really not many numbers in boxing. Baseball is great because there are very few cheap stats in it if you get a hit or do well as a pitcher that **** is earned and not just anyone can put up numbers. Over the course of a long ass season a guy will pretty much do what those number say with some variation for growth or a guy just killing it having a career year.

Boxing is way different, guys don't compete enough for there to be a law of large numbers thing at play. Plus the intangible stuff in boxing means a lot, those high end stats guys in baseball (or any sport) are taking those out of the equation because qualitative and quantitative don't really mix. Boxing is way more qualitative than any other stat driven sport.

The best example of why numbers don't work right in boxing is boxrec rankings. The formula is decent and they have tinkered for years with it but it remains pretty much flawed in the same way. When limited to do divisional rankings it does alright because it is comparing like things, there are still some things that end up odd but it does ok at this, when expanded out to do historical rankings or P4P it really falls apart because there are too many factors at play and no way to really compare certain things.

[Eff Pandas]

Money ball is a very stats oriented number system, there are really not many numbers in boxing. Baseball is great because there are very few cheap stats in it if you get a hit or do well as a pitcher that **** is earned and not just anyone can put up numbers. Over the course of a long ass season a guy will pretty much do what those number say with some variation for growth or a guy just killing it having a career year.

Boxing is way different, guys don't compete enough for there to be a law of large numbers thing at play. Plus the intangible stuff in boxing means a lot, those high end stats guys in baseball (or any sport) are taking those out of the equation because qualitative and quantitative don't really mix. Boxing is way more qualitative than any other stat driven sport.

The best example of why numbers don't work right in boxing is boxrec rankings. The formula is decent and they have tinkered for years with it but it remains pretty much flawed in the same way. When limited to do divisional rankings it does alright because it is comparing like things, there are still some things that end up odd but it does ok at this, when expanded out to do historical rankings or P4P it really falls apart because there are too many factors at play and no way to really compare certain things.

Idk man I don't think its THAT complicated. Its different than baseball obviously, but I believe there are numbers you can apply to virtually anything even if they aren't combat tested like you could suggest punch stat numbers are.

Tim VanNewHouse who co-manages some guys with him seems to do good scouting on guys & I suspect they scout boxers like baseball scouts used to scout baseball players putting a number on various attributes a fighter has from his jab to his demeanor to his teachability & so on. From that I think you could come up with a potential for success which the way he talks about it is what his number on various prospects means.

Is it failproof? Certainly not. Whats failproof or perfect anyway? Nothing really. But you can increase your odds of success &/or limit your chance of failure by analyzing more attributes then most others are & put a number on it so you take emotion out of it.

I also think it is easier to gauge talent in amateur cuz top guys do fight top guys ALL THE TIME. So certain elements of a guys skill level can be measured easier in the amateur game vs his class than it can be in the pros I believe. You keep winning you keep moving up.

I definitely think this cat is onto something doe cuz he's picked up a lot of lesser known, but talented Michigan guys. Thats how he got on my radar in the first place he started picking up a ton of talented Michigan fighters, but unless you were in Michigan or paid close attention to the Michigan scene you weren't likely to know them. And with boxing being pretty dead in Michigan in recent years thats a ripe ground to pick up talented cats without much competition these days which I think is likely another angle to his game. Find talented cats in lesser pro boxing friendly areas. And Michigan & the midwest in general is a breeding ground of bad mfers with no real boxing mecca around when you turn pro.

[The Gambler1981]

Idk man I don't think its THAT complicated. Its different than baseball obviously, but I believe there are numbers you can apply to virtually anything even if they aren't combat tested like you could suggest punch stat numbers are.

Tim VanNewHouse who co-manages some guys with him seems to do good scouting on guys & I suspect they scout boxers like baseball scouts used to scout baseball players putting a number on various attributes a fighter has from his jab to his demeanor to his teachability & so on. From that I think you could come up with a potential for success which the way he talks about it is what his number on various prospects means.

Is it failproof? Certainly not. Whats failproof or perfect anyway? Nothing really. But you can increase your odds of success &/or limit your chance of failure by analyzing more attributes then most others are & put a number on it so you take emotion out of it.

I also think it is easier to gauge talent in amateur cuz top guys do fight top guys ALL THE TIME. So certain elements of a guys skill level can be measured easier in the amateur game vs his class than it can be in the pros I believe. You keep winning you keep moving up.

I definitely think this cat is onto something doe cuz he's picked up a lot of lesser known, but talented Michigan guys. Thats how he got on my radar in the first place he started picking up a ton of talented Michigan fighters, but unless you were in Michigan or paid close attention to the Michigan scene you weren't likely to know them. And with boxing being pretty dead in Michigan in recent years thats a ripe ground to pick up talented cats without much competition these days which I think is likely another angle to his game. Find talented cats in lesser pro boxing friendly areas. And Michigan & the midwest in general is a breeding ground of bad mfers with no real boxing mecca around when you turn pro.

There are just no good stats in boxing to really use like in baseball. In a moneyball kind of way at least. Fighting more often does allow for there to be better scouting applied no doubt and amateur fights are shorter. So looking at what a guy can do over 3 2 minute rounds sporting contest is a lot easier to make predictions on, as opposessed to 12 3 minutes rounds where one guy may be prepared to die that night but the other is looking at it a just another night another payday.

Now if they take it to where baseball scouting is now where they use crazy cameras to measure how much spin a dude puts on a curve ball or how much a dude can really barrel up the ball consistently. Still there were always scouts that could tell a killer curveball and just listen to a cat hitting a ball to know the kind of wood they can put on it. It would simplify it though and make gathering such info easier. I could see how filming a guy with those camera to measure torque, velocity, force, angles that they can punch at where that could help out.


Still if a guy can really do that stuff under pressure or when the going gets tough is not something that can be quantified. There is obviously some pressure in baseball, and hitting a baseball is called the hardest thing in sports for a reason but it it totally different where a fight has so many moving parts.


Boxing to me is just a really different kettle of fish, finding talent has never been a huge issue. Finding talent that can really get the job done in the ring mentally and have a long career is hard, because it is such a hard game to actually stay on top.

[Zaroku]

Nice write up...
scouting is a tough tough job....I couldn’t do it.

[Eff Pandas]

There are just no good stats in boxing to really use like in baseball. In a moneyball kind of way at least. Fighting more often does allow for there to be better scouting applied no doubt and amateur fights are shorter. So looking at what a guy can do over 3 2 minute rounds sporting contest is a lot easier to make predictions on, as opposessed to 12 3 minutes rounds where one guy may be prepared to die that night but the other is looking at it a just another night another payday.

Now if they take it to where baseball scouting is now where they use crazy cameras to measure how much spin a dude puts on a curve ball or how much a dude can really barrel up the ball consistently. Still there were always scouts that could tell a killer curveball and just listen to a cat hitting a ball to know the kind of wood they can put on it. It would simplify it though and make gathering such info easier. I could see how filming a guy with those camera to measure torque, velocity, force, angles that they can punch at where that could help out.


Still if a guy can really do that stuff under pressure or when the going gets tough is not something that can be quantified. There is obviously some pressure in baseball, and hitting a baseball is called the hardest thing in sports for a reason but it it totally different where a fight has so many moving parts.


Boxing to me is just a really different kettle of fish, finding talent has never been a huge issue. Finding talent that can really get the job done in the ring mentally and have a long career is hard, because it is such a hard game to actually stay on top.

You can quantify anything. How right or wrong you are in doing so is up for ongoing discussion & reaccessing. And how you go about quantifying it is obviously important to.

Again I don't think this is an exact science as nothing involving probability, including those Moneyball guys theories, is ever going to be. Its only a means to improve your odds on success & intangibles will always have a say in that process. Go read Len Bias' or a million other prospects wiki pages for more on that.

[QueensburyRules]

Been aware of David McWater for years now after noticing him acquiring several top Michigan prospects I had my eye on early. Noticed him getting bigger prospects as I kept a closer eye on him.

Now after hearing him talk for the first time at a decent length (he was on a recent Boxing Esq podcast episode) I've become fascinated with this cat as apparently he's got this whole system of measuring amateurs thats gotten him a who's who list of the top up & coming guys in boxing as a no name guy in the sport.

Curious if anyone knows more about his system or if they have heard of other systems for ranking fighters liklihood for success as a pro & what that system looks like?

And randomly he also vaguely discussed having a pro points system that he thinks is superior to Boxrec.

Been saying for years there is massive upside with statistics in boxing for someone who finds a way to use them with success.

And for the record I don't think its 100% proven this guy has found some cheat code to prospects as its still primarily a theory in motion thats being tested as we speak, but it sounds like worse case he's onto sonething with this based on the success & growth I've seen from him just in the last couple years.

- -Bunch of hogwash.

Stats been around forever only now boxrec comprehensively cross links em.

No holy grail, but the few insiders make all the money on the officiating. I'd guess that works 80% of the time with the 20% losses expected from lucky punches and the like.

[Eff Pandas]

- -Bunch of hogwash.

Stats been around forever only now boxrec comprehensively cross links em.

No holy grail, but the few insiders make all the money on the officiating. I'd guess that works 80% of the time with the 20% losses expected from lucky punches and the like.

Honestly like I keep saying there there is NOTHING thats 100% right 100% of the time so idk why the threshold for something being profitable is always perfect results anyway. It just needs to be profitable not perfect. You're being unrealistic suggesting its gotta be perfect.

And even boxrec is profitable in its results. The higher ranked guy DOES win more often then he loses.

That said I think there are better ways to analyze things then the way boxrec does them. One of the major flaws I have with boxrec is it doesn't take any intangibles & non-concrete variables into play. Although I think thats by their design to be of more mass appeal, less controversial & to avoid too much speculation. And thats why McWater saying he believes he has a superior ranking system than boxrec is probably not that hard to believe. I mean ffs boxrec basically predicts every prospect to lose his step up fights. Thats a huge hole in boxrec's formula.

[Randall Cunning]

2 more, signed to Golden Boy https://twitter.com/timmyvann/status...427929600?s=19