Comments Thread For: Could The DAZN-Canelo Deal Lead To The Demise of PPV?

[yammy25]

The more I think about this the more I'm skeptical it'll work. I remember people doubting if Showtime could turn a profit with Floyd's deal. Well this deal is for more money at a far lesser cost, $10 sub compared to $60-$100 PPV.

For every Canelo fight they're in the hole $36 mil. DAZN is available in 5 countries and the average cost per sub is $18 dollars. The'll need 2 mill subs just to cover his purse alone. And if he gets a bonus per million sub that's even less money for them.

yeah but if they have those 2 million subs 12 times a year... kinda pays for itself i guess.

only way we'll know is by watching from afar i guess

[Eff Pandas]

You gotta come with more realistic numbers. So how much does DAZN need to take to stay afloat and how did you arrive at that number? Also how many people do you think are going to keep the service after Canelo fights twice a year? What does it have to offer to keep casuals coming back the other 10 months?

Casuals aren't gonna get DAZN til it makes sense for them & that'll be when they got football or basketball or NCAA sh^t or something like that. Idk how that all shakes out cuz I don't follow that sh^t.

But just doing the boxing sh^t we know this is how I see it.

Hearn is getting $125M a year, which I & I think others are in dispute on him actually having out of the gate, but lets just go with it

Canelo is getting $66.3M a year, assuming he fights twice a year

We don't know how much GBP is getting for their 10 shows, but lets say they get a 1M budget per show average so $10M

We don't know how much the WBSS is getting for their 21 shows, but lets just give them a 1M rights fee per event so $21M

So that gives us total boxing expenses of $222.3M

And the incoming money is $9.99 a month thus $119.88 a year.

So they need 1.8M subs, on average, through out the year to break even.

And this isn't taking into account other country DAZN platforms that would reduce the needs of DAZN USA to make the boxing expenses break even or two profit. Its also not taking into account people who are 50% in on boxing & 50% in on Bellator or Cricket or NCAA football or other sh^t DAZN is showing now or will be in the future or whatever % they are into DAZN's platform sports being shown that only DAZN could measure.

I don't think anyone is suggesting DAZN will be making money next week or next month or next year. I think anyone who understands how this works knows DAZN will be losing money in the US market for awhile.

Sh^t I think Uber is still losing money & Amazon lost money forever. This is just how these companies do business with these spheres that have so much upside like live sports does. So if DAZN doesn't make sense 5-10 years from now & aren't being close to profitable they will probably go outta business or be bought out & merged into some other streaming property, but right now this is an emerging market that has a ton of potential to innovate & customize viewing of live sports & we aren't even close to this being in its final form.

[Butch.McRae]

Casuals aren't gonna get DAZN til it makes sense for them & that'll be when they got football or basketball or NCAA sh^t or something like that. Idk how that all shakes out cuz I don't follow that sh^t.

But just doing the boxing sh^t we know this is how I see it.

Hearn is getting $125M a year, which I & I think others are in dispute on him actually having out of the gate, but lets just go with it

Canelo is getting $66.3M a year, assuming he fights twice a year

We don't know how much GBP is getting for their 10 shows, but lets say they get a 1M budget per show average so $10M

We don't know how much the WBSS is getting for their 21 shows, but lets just give them a 1M rights fee per event so $21M

So that gives us total boxing expenses of $222.3M

And the incoming money is $9.99 a month thus $119.88 a year.

So they need 1.8M subs, on average, through out the year to break even.

And this isn't taking into account other country DAZN platforms that would reduce the needs of DAZN USA to make the boxing expenses break even or two profit. Its also not taking into account people who are 50% in on boxing & 50% in on Bellator or Cricket or NCAA football or other sh^t DAZN is showing now or will be in the future or whatever % they are into DAZN's platform sports being shown that only DAZN could measure.

I don't think anyone is suggesting DAZN will be making money next week or next month or next year. I think anyone who understands how this works knows DAZN will be losing money in the US market for awhile.

Sh^t I think Uber is still losing money & Amazon lost money forever. This is just how these companies do business with these spheres that have so much upside like live sports does. So if DAZN doesn't make sense 5-10 years from now & aren't being close to profitable they will probably go outta business or be bought out & merged into some other streaming property, but right now this is an emerging market that has a ton of potential to innovate & customize viewing of live sports & we aren't even close to this being in its final form.

You pretty much get it, but DAZN has to hit at least 5M subs before they can bid on some of the premium sports content. (NBA,NFL, etc.)

I expect that'll take around 4 years or so to do. People are delusional if they think boxing and MMA will pull those sort of subs lol UFC fight pass only has around 450k subs.

I think anything above 1.5M subs will make their team very happy after 18-24 months.

They'll be losing money for at least 8 years or so. But that's expected as you noted.

[Eff Pandas]

You pretty much get it, but DAZN has to hit at least 5M subs before they can bid on some of the premium sports content. (NBA,NFL, etc.)

Idk about that.

We don't know how much money DAZN is working with. I think they will be bidding on the big sports when they come available regardless of how many subs they got at the time. If they don't win a bid or two of something notable then they'll have to wait another 8 years or w/e. If they don't bid on the bigger sports that become available as they become available they might not be around 8 years later when they'll next be able to bid on them I'd argue.

I expect that'll take around 3 years or so to do. People are delusional if they think boxing and MMA will pull those sort of subs lol UFC fight pass only has around 450k subs.

UFC Fight Pass was promoted poorly & more importantly all they put on there is old fights & their most garbage live cards. If they put Conor & Ronda Rousey & Jon Jones fights on there I'd guarantee they'd have 5x or more people paying $10 for that service every month. Thats what DAZN will be trying to do.

They got Canelo. They got Joshua. Those are the two biggest names in the game today. They got the WBSS tournament which the best event in boxing right now. There is tremendous value in DAZN for boxing fans & its not even comparable to the value that was in UFC Fight Pass for MMA fans.

They'll be losing money for at least 8 years or so. But that's expected as you noted.

Yea thats a good bet. Anyone coming into this streaming live sports game is gonna lose money if they are scaling it to be the industry leader 10 or 20 years from now. And anyone not losing money isn't going to be taking enough risks to be the leader 10 or 20 years from now.

[KTFOKING]

between the wilder-fury card and the end of 2019 PBC will have put on 6 ppvs at least and will be the most expensive promotional company for fans to watch between all the ppvs and SHO.

You can say Mayweather is his own entity but that card will be filled with PBC fighters so its all connected.

So you considered Mayweather/Pacquiao PBC PPV?You considered Mayweather/McGregor PBC? If so wow, PBC has the two biggest PPVs of all time. In reality though Mayweather is not PBC.

One reason TR isn't having PPVs is because they lost their lone PPV fighter in Pacquiao. You honestly think Pacquiao vs Crawford wouldn't be on PPV? Only reason Pacquiao's lost two fights haven't been PPV is because he fought overseas. And Arum has mentioned putting Crawford in a PPV in 2019 so let’s see what happens there.

We shall see on the six PPVs, but FOX like with the UFC deal will certainly want a couple of PPVs a year. I don't think Spence/Garcia if it happens on PPV though.

[Motorcity Cobra]

Sh^t I think Uber is still losing money & Amazon lost money forever. This is just how these companies do business with these spheres that have so much upside like live sports does. So if DAZN doesn't make sense 5-10 years from now & aren't being close to profitable they will probably go outta business or be bought out & merged into some other streaming property, but right now this is an emerging market that has a ton of potential to innovate & customize viewing of live sports & we aren't even close to this being in its final form.

Uber and Amazon have sustainable business models with unlimited potential. DAZN largely depends on being able to grab a MLB/NHL/NBA/NFL or major soccer league deal. The content for a non boxing fan isn't there to keep the people who buy the fight solely for Canelo.
How much are they paying Joshu per fight? Do you know?

[Eff Pandas]

Uber and Amazon have sustainable business models with unlimited potential. DAZN largely depends on being able to grab a MLB/NHL/NBA/NFL or major soccer league deal. The content for a non boxing fan isn't there to keep the people who buy the fight solely for Canelo.

No one is saying it is yet in the US market. DAZN US is a boxing & MMA product right now almost exclusively (I can't imagine the US cricket fanbase is all that impressive, but DAZN would be where you wanna go if you are) due to what they have access to buy the right to. They will live or die on how they do or do not acquire more mainstream sports in the future.

How much are they paying Joshu per fight? Do you know?

No clue, but I'd assume it comes out of Hearn's $125M budget. Joshua is making most of his money with Sky PPV. So they could probably pay him a few mill for the DAZN rights I'd assume. Maybe $10M-ish or something around that max. Whatever Showtime was giving him I'd bet is around what Hearn is paying him. Maybe Joshua is even giving him a discount for now since they've worked together from the ground floor up.

[rolshans]

You pretty much get it, but DAZN has to hit at least 5M subs before they can bid on some of the premium sports content. (NBA,NFL, etc.)

Remember that DAZN successfully bid for NFL Sunday Ticket rights in Canada with practically zero subscribers.

[Butch.McRae]

Remember that DAZN successfully bid for NFL Sunday Ticket rights in Canada with practically zero subscribers.

You have to understand the difference in scale and $$$ surely. The base audience is going to have to be sufficiently large before the NFL or NBA will even look at DAZN.

That's just reality. You also have to understand that companies like CBS already has an app and they're expecting yo have 8M paying subs by January 2019 and 16M by 2022.

It's going to take a combination of $$$ and a sub base to take things where they want to go.

[rolshans]

You have to understand the difference in scale and $$$ surely. The base audience is going to have to be sufficiently large before the NFL or NBA will even look at DAZN.

That's just reality. You also have to understand that companies like CBS already has an app and they're expecting yo have 8M paying subs by January 2019 and 16M by 2022.

It's going to take a combination of $$$ and a sub base to take things where they want to go.

Sure, but the NFL took a chance on an unknown platform in a jurisdiction the size of California.

DAZN might not need 5M to get US rights, is all.