Is public perception affecting the odds of Canelo/GGG?

[triplohe]

Just 1 year ago Golovkin was a massive favorite over Canelo. But as the fight closes in they will probably be at even odds.

Is this because of the massive casual fanbase betting on Canelo?

[JohnP2]

As someone who did consulting work for casinos back in the day when it came to boxing odds, I can tell you that 100% of the lines are based on "public perception". In a nutshell, casinos want to break even. Ideally 50% of the public bets on one fighter and 50% on the other. In this scenario, they have a 100% profit from the vigorish (juice). It's psuedo para-mutual wagering. The way it works is they set and initial money line for which they feel will be the safest. Then, based on how people are wagering, they will move the line to keep it as even as possible.

Finally, remember, these casinos know their ****. They hire people to give them the insight needed to set the initial line. I know I'm swaying from the topic at hand, but my advice for anyone wanting to bet on boxing (making serious plays) is to focus on the smaller, more discreet fights as as there is less activity and you have a better chance of catching them 'slipping' on the initial money line. My overall advice is not to really bet at all though, as there's an old saying "Vegas was not built on winners."

[Motorcity Cobra]

Just 1 year ago Golovkin was a massive favorite over Canelo. But as the fight closes in they will probably be at even odds.

Is this because of the massive casual fanbase betting on Canelo?

Yes. Especially in boxing. I think the initial odds are set based on public perception and the changing odds are based on which way the money is flowing. Look at the odds for Floyd/Conor. The bookmakers didn't think Conor had a better chance of beating Floyd than Maidana. The bettors thought that and put their money on Conor. That's why the odds were closer than the Maidana/Floyd odds.

[RedZmaja]

Betting lines for big events where a lot of people bet are all about public perception. That's why you can learn a lot of money if you're able to spot the hype trains before they crush.

[gingerbreadman]

Always bet on Floyd, because those who hate him bet on his opponents. Conversely, bet against England when there's a world cup or other big football tournament on, especially with English bookies. I'll always support England/whoever's fighting Floyd, but ******** has nothing to do with emotions for me.