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Right now Mayweather stands at:
Money win -550
Money KO -140
Money decision +250
Clearly, the only way to make real money on this fight, is to bet one or the other, KO or decision. KO is favored and the odds reflect that, but I'd like to explore that a bit more.
Rationally, Mayweather is going to win. Personally, I think with the huge fines involved, Conor will avoid disqualification (which would count as a Money KO for ******** purposes).
So will Money straight up KO McGregor?
Here's a couple reasons yes,
1. McGregor is hopelessly mismatched.
2. Mayweather will be burned at the stake by the press/boxing fans if he can't put McGregor away. May actually damage his legacy.
Here's some reasons why he won't,
1. Mayweather doesn't throw very powerful shots. He was never a big KO puncher, and hasn't scored any stoppage since 2011, and that had more to do with Ortiz quitting trying to get a DQ.
2. Mayweather has bad hands. He broke one fist, and has arthritis. How hard you hit is not limited by muscle, it's actually limited by how much pain you can inflict on your own wrists and fists. Big punchers often have large fists and thick wrists. Your body learns how hard it can punch without hurting itself, and that's your limit. This is why the guys with the most defined muscle aren't the same guys who have KO power, more often than not.
3. Volume of Punches. If you can't hit hard with one shot, you need to beat down your opponent with a lot of volume shots. That's how Manny Pacquiao used to stop opponents before he got old. Mayweather has never been a big volume guy. He wins round after round on defense and accurate counter punching.
4. Weight. The fight is at 154, and McGregor is naturally bigger. When you are punching up a weight class, it becomes that much harder to KO an opponent. The more weight you have, the more punishment you can take. Mayweather is not likely to weigh in at 154, and won't put any weight on. He could be outweighed by 10-15 pounds come fight night pretty easily.
5. Age. This plays into all of it, limits power, volume.
6. Legitimacy. Mayweather is on the horns of a dilemma. Yeah he'll take criticism for not KOing McGregor, but he'll also take criticism if he KO's McGregor so quickly that the audience doesn't get a show. Therefore, I don't think Mayweather will even try to KO McGregor before round 5. This makes doubly sense since McGregor is likely going to be dangerous for the first 4 rounds.
So I see a slightly tired Mayweather with only 8 rounds to try and get the KO. As I said, his last KO against Ortiz was far from legit. Ortiz quit and was trying to get a DQ, after Mayweather punched him twice while the ref was looking away and it was sort of ambiguous whether the action had been stopped. Before that, Ricky Hatton was KOed in sort of a freak fall headfirst into a turn buckle. I am not trying to take credit away from Mayweather here, only point out how rare a KO is for him.
140 to win 100 is good, 100 to win 250 is much better.
What are your thoughts on most likely outcome?
Money win -550
Money KO -140
Money decision +250
Clearly, the only way to make real money on this fight, is to bet one or the other, KO or decision. KO is favored and the odds reflect that, but I'd like to explore that a bit more.
Rationally, Mayweather is going to win. Personally, I think with the huge fines involved, Conor will avoid disqualification (which would count as a Money KO for ******** purposes).
So will Money straight up KO McGregor?
Here's a couple reasons yes,
1. McGregor is hopelessly mismatched.
2. Mayweather will be burned at the stake by the press/boxing fans if he can't put McGregor away. May actually damage his legacy.
Here's some reasons why he won't,
1. Mayweather doesn't throw very powerful shots. He was never a big KO puncher, and hasn't scored any stoppage since 2011, and that had more to do with Ortiz quitting trying to get a DQ.
2. Mayweather has bad hands. He broke one fist, and has arthritis. How hard you hit is not limited by muscle, it's actually limited by how much pain you can inflict on your own wrists and fists. Big punchers often have large fists and thick wrists. Your body learns how hard it can punch without hurting itself, and that's your limit. This is why the guys with the most defined muscle aren't the same guys who have KO power, more often than not.
3. Volume of Punches. If you can't hit hard with one shot, you need to beat down your opponent with a lot of volume shots. That's how Manny Pacquiao used to stop opponents before he got old. Mayweather has never been a big volume guy. He wins round after round on defense and accurate counter punching.
4. Weight. The fight is at 154, and McGregor is naturally bigger. When you are punching up a weight class, it becomes that much harder to KO an opponent. The more weight you have, the more punishment you can take. Mayweather is not likely to weigh in at 154, and won't put any weight on. He could be outweighed by 10-15 pounds come fight night pretty easily.
5. Age. This plays into all of it, limits power, volume.
6. Legitimacy. Mayweather is on the horns of a dilemma. Yeah he'll take criticism for not KOing McGregor, but he'll also take criticism if he KO's McGregor so quickly that the audience doesn't get a show. Therefore, I don't think Mayweather will even try to KO McGregor before round 5. This makes doubly sense since McGregor is likely going to be dangerous for the first 4 rounds.
So I see a slightly tired Mayweather with only 8 rounds to try and get the KO. As I said, his last KO against Ortiz was far from legit. Ortiz quit and was trying to get a DQ, after Mayweather punched him twice while the ref was looking away and it was sort of ambiguous whether the action had been stopped. Before that, Ricky Hatton was KOed in sort of a freak fall headfirst into a turn buckle. I am not trying to take credit away from Mayweather here, only point out how rare a KO is for him.
140 to win 100 is good, 100 to win 250 is much better.
What are your thoughts on most likely outcome?
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