my breakdown and prediction for a Golovkin win.

[Lester Tutor]

I'll have to agree with OP that Ward didn't neutralize Kovalev's jab but he neutralized Kovalev's right hand after the KD.. In the later half of the fight it was mostly Kovalev's jab that was landing & Ward was working on the inside once he got past the jab..

Kovalev's jab is what would win him fights and tear down all opponents. You're saying Ward didn'T neutralize his jab?

[Redd Foxx]

Canelo overcommitting on the counter? Then, going to the ropes to play counters because he's losing?
Ok...

I can see him losing but I can't see him doing either of the above.

[BoxingFan85]

Kovalev's jab is what would win him fights and tear down all opponents. You're saying Ward didn'T neutralize his jab?

He neutralized it how exactly? With his face? then yes, he did..

Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev - CompuBox Punch Stats

[Thraxox]

Canelo overcommitting on the counter? Then, going to the ropes to play counters because he's losing?
Ok...

I can see him losing but I can't see him doing either of the above.

Countering off the ropes that what I as saying. Like what he did against Chavez. Canelo consistently does that to pressure fighters. Angulo/Kirkland. But Golovkin isn't just going to wail on the ropes once he got you there, he'll make you drop guard by raising that jab, and sticks that right hand on your face and some left hooks to the body.

And also, you forgot, "Frustration" as a reason for Canelo over committing the counter.

[Lester Tutor]

He neutralized it how exactly? With his face? then yes, he did..

Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev - CompuBox Punch Stats

Have you watched any of Kovalev's fights? Seriously? Not sure you realize how Kovalev has a particular sequence to wear down his opponents with his jab and then finish them off. Only top echelon defensive fighters can go 12 with Kova. You'Re saying Kova just decided to not use his jab or Ward handled his jab?

It's pretty straight forward that Kovalev's jab wasn't effective against Ward. hence, it was neutralized

Aside from any of that theory, the point is, can we just assume that Golovkin is going to wither down Alvarez with his jab just because?

[Thraxox]

Canelo has the advantage in speed & can put in a combination if the target is stationary(no head/upper body movement).. That said, Canelo is more of a counterpuncher from what we have seen recently & would try to counter Golovkin's jab & hook.. Canelo is slow on his feet & plants it every time he has to get off his combos.. If Golovkin can catch the counter right & land a left hook to the body he has a chance to back Canelo up & Canelo doesn't fight good backing up.. The other thing Golovkin has to avoid is the upper cut when he waits to get his shots off..
I see a late KO for Golovkin but it wouldn't surprise me if he wins by a decision..

Canelo has good head movement to slip the jab and counter, but Golovkin counters head movement by feinting a jab to sneak in an upper cut. You saw that against Jacobs, when Jacobs used effective head movement to nullify Golovkin's jab that tagged his head early, and then Golovkin starts to feint that jab and sneak in an upper cut that wobbled Jacobs in the fight.

Golovkin uses variety of combinations. If a Jab doesn't work, feint a jab to land a sneaking upper cut, if the uppercut doesn't land, lead hand overhand right. Golovkin adjust whenever 1 of his tools doesn't land. And it was in the Jacobs fight that brought his skills out to out box the much bigger and taller man.

[Fangedgrowl]

Dude Canelo will have to get GGG respect, Plain and simple. GGG is a good technician and he has very good foot movement and is an expert at cutting off the ring. He also has a great jab. Canelo has slow foot movement and he plants to rip off combination. He has very good handspeed , but he will need to counter the jab and turn Ggg , by pivoting While he is doing this he must invest in body punches. He must fight in spurts. This bout will not be a brawl but a very lively game of cat and muse. Both guys styles compliment each others strenths , however it is up to Canelo to get his attention or be in tremendous shape to weather those storms. Right now i give the edge to GGG by unanimous decision (rahter close, but unanaimous, or late round stoppage by Canelo's Corner.

[BoxingFan85]

Have you watched any of Kovalev's fights? Seriously? Not sure you realize how Kovalev has a particular sequence to wear down his opponents with his jab and then finish them off. Only top echelon defensive fighters can go 12 with Kova. You'Re saying Kova just decided to not use his jab or Ward handled his jab?

It's pretty straight forward that Kovalev's jab wasn't effective against Ward. hence, it was neutralized

Bruh.. I have seen Kovalev's fights & I know his jab is pretty strong & snaps the opponents head back.. Saying that he came with the same game plan to fight Ward as against the other boxers is plain wrong.. You are saying just Kovalev did not throw enough jabs in the fight was because Ward neutralized it? I do not agree..
Kovalev was trying to counter Ward(& that's how he got the KD too) something he tried to do against BHop too because Hop was difficult to stand land clean jabs on..

Aside from any of that theory, the point is, can we just assume that Golovkin is going to wither down Alvarez with his jab just because?

I don't think Golovkin will just jab his way like he did with Lemule, Canelo is a good counter puncher & will back him off with rights.. Golovkin has to feint, catch counters to land hooks to the body imo.. He has to back Canelo up as Canelo isn't as effective backing up & land body shots & right hooks upstairs..

[BoxingFan85]

Canelo has good head movement to slip the jab and counter, but Golovkin counters head movement by feinting a jab to sneak in an upper cut. You saw that against Jacobs, when Jacobs used effective head movement to nullify Golovkin's jab that tagged his head early, and then Golovkin starts to feint that jab and sneak in an upper cut that wobbled Jacobs in the fight.

Golovkin uses variety of combinations. If a Jab doesn't work, feint a jab to land a sneaking upper cut, if the uppercut doesn't land, lead hand overhand right. Golovkin adjust whenever 1 of his tools doesn't land. And it was in the Jacobs fight that brought his skills out to out box the much bigger and taller man.

Yep.. I said the same thing in my last post.. GGG needs to feint more to draw Canelo into his counter & then counter him instead..

[Redd Foxx]

Countering off the ropes that what I as saying. Like what he did against Chavez. Canelo consistently does that to pressure fighters. Angulo/Kirkland. But Golovkin isn't just going to wail on the ropes once he got you there, he'll make you drop guard by raising that jab, and sticks that right hand on your face and some left hooks to the body.

And also, you forgot, "Frustration" as a reason for Canelo over committing the counter.

You're seeing his actions but moth his method. He never puts his back on the ropes when things are tense/problematic, like many fighters do (which was your scenario). He does the opposite, going to the ropes to draw out an attack when he's feeling comfortable. Canelo has developed good lateral footwork. He doesn't use it offensively much but it's there for him when he doesn't want to get trapped.
I think GG's best path to victory is to get Canelo on the ropes but don't expect Canelo to go there out of frustration.

As far as frustration goes, we haven't seen him get sloppy form frustration for years, since the Mayweather fight, and even then he kept fairly composed. Look at the Lara fight, where he should have been frustrated out of his mind. Or, even as recently as the early rounds against Khan. Canelo doesn't get sloppy from frustration. He's remarkably composed. It's one of the things he's known for.