NSB Pick 'em #13 - Saul "Canelo" Álvarez vs Julio César Chávez Jr, May 6

[Rudyo]

You mental cripple. What exactly has Canelo accomplished in the middleweight division so far? He's never even fought a real MW opponent. He is arguably the best Jr. Middleweight, with a gift win or two (e.g., Lara), although again he's been playing the catchweight game primarily, so it's hard to say. As a MW he hasn't done sheet except give up a belt.

Mental cripple

You're a moron. Yes, he needs to fight GGG but he hasn't been a MW his whole career, you are discounting most of his career.

[Joe Beamish]

Mental cripple

You're a moron. Yes, he needs to fight GGG but he hasn't been a MW his whole career, you are discounting most of his career.

Again, I'm sorry if it hurts you, fanboy, but Canelo does have his limitations. I guess you're saying he's a perfect fighter. But he has slow feet, mediocre speed and power, and little stamina. He has some cute moves (though not particularly quick ones) and is able to throw good combos and solid body shots.

But as a MW -- my original point -- he is unaccomplished.

[hhs661]

hhs661, 2x

[hhs661]

Whoops. I picked the wrong option

[j0zef]

You can always let me know if you want to change picks

But on the other hand... the latest pics of Chavez are not comforting for his chances.

You know what.. I'm changing my pick to Chavez by KO 1-4 and using a 2x multiplier as well.

In my head, I think Canelo easily stops him in the mid-late rounds though :/

[mrpain81]

Don't really see the fight being close, there are levels in this game and Chavez doesn't have the power/skill imo to change the fight. He's going to take a sustained beating until he probably quits in the corner again.

[asgarth]

You mental cripple. What exactly has Canelo accomplished in the middleweight division so far? He's never even fought a real MW opponent. He is arguably the best Jr. Middleweight, with a gift win or two (e.g., Lara), although again he's been playing the catchweight game primarily, so it's hard to say. As a MW he hasn't done sheet except give up a belt.

Chavez doesnt have the skills to capitalize on Canelos weaknesses.
Canelo is a pretty good counterpuncher, although a stationary one.
Chavez will catch hell trying to get in close distance. The dude doesnt even use a jab to close the distance, he just puts up his guard and tries to awkwardly get in with some head movement.
Stamina is also not that big of a point, Chavez himself takes full rounds off more often than not and never fights hard for a whole round.
They are smaller guys, but if Canelo can handle Angulos und Kirklands pressure, he wont be discomforted by Chavez clumsy pressure.
It's not the pressure fighter who give canelo problems, dudes fighting on the backfoot, applying hit and move tactics are difficult, because of his inability to cut off the ring.

A guy like Chavez who has no defense and is always there to hit, will get pummeled by Canelo. I can see a late round referee stoppage.

And another point to consider:
Chavez had only 2 knockouts in the last 7 years. Lee and Manfredo Jr., both guys not know for their toughness and chin. Chavez couldnt even stop mediocre career middleweights at 170 pounds.

[BrometheusBob.]

You know what.. I'm changing my pick to Chavez by KO 1-4 and using a 2x multiplier as well.

In my head, I think Canelo easily stops him in the mid-late rounds though :/

New pick acknowledged!

Good luck

[Joe Beamish]

Chavez doesnt have the skills to capitalize on Canelos weaknesses.
Canelo is a pretty good counterpuncher, although a stationary one.
Chavez will catch hell trying to get in close distance. The dude doesnt even use a jab to close the distance, he just puts up his guard and tries to awkwardly get in with some head movement.
Stamina is also not that big of a point, Chavez himself takes full rounds off more often than not and never fights hard for a whole round.
They are smaller guys, but if Canelo can handle Angulos und Kirklands pressure, he wont be discomforted by Chavez clumsy pressure.
It's not the pressure fighter who give canelo problems, dudes fighting on the backfoot, applying hit and move tactics are difficult, because of his inability to cut off the ring.

A guy like Chavez who has no defense and is always there to hit, will get pummeled by Canelo. I can see a late round referee stoppage.

And another point to consider:
Chavez had only 2 knockouts in the last 7 years. Lee and Manfredo Jr., both guys not know for their toughness and chin. Chavez couldnt even stop mediocre career middleweights at 170 pounds.

We are in agreement. Canelo will defeat Chavez. I never considered any other outcome.

Then again, I don't think much of Junior. He is not a dedicated, focused fighter in the same way that Canelo is. Nor is he a legitimate middleweight anymore. He will be a seriously drained SMW who doesn't stay in shape between fights, and whose head is shrouded in the weight of being his father's son, always. He's a reasonably likable doofus without a game plan except to vaguely hope that his jab opens up something.

I agree with your view of the fight, basically. Early rounds, Chavez does not let his hands go. Middle rounds, Chavez knows he's falling way behind and starts throwing a little bit more, and starts getting tagged to the body. Late rounds, Canelo forces a stoppage maybe, or Chavez just slumps into a sagging loss by UD.

Chavez is not a man on a mission. He's the son of one. Still doing what his dad wants. Canelo is doing it for real.

[Chuckguy]

I'm not sure cantnelo has the power to bother jr. It might just be a 12 round beating.