Ward - Kovalev 2 similar to Maidana - Floyd 2

[VirusTI]

Full disclosure, Kovalev fan.

I think this fight will be similar to Maidana-Floyd 2. As evident by the first fight, the longer it went the better Ward was getting. Now, I fully believe the Kovalev won the fight and the judges got it wrong, but everybody can see that Ward was winning more rounds towards the latter half of the fight.

As with any boxer vs puncher(boxer-puncher in this case) match up, the rematch generally favors the purer boxer. I fully expect for Kovalev to take 2 of the first 3-4 rounds and 2-3 of the remaining 8-9 rounds. The score cards should be similar to the first fight(albeit slightly wider), minus the knock down, as I don't think ward will get knocked down again(certainly if he stays on his feet the first 2 to 3 rounds). Scores are expected to be 115-113 to 117-111 for Ward.

Now, having said all of this, Kovalev still has chances in this fight. If we look at the first fight, we can see that Ward was beat up. At the end Kovalev looked tired, but Ward looked beat up. At 33 getting beat up for 12 rounds only saps strengths from future fights. Additionally, the rounds that Ward did win were won through attrition; Ward took a lot of punishment to win those rounds. And as you can tell, even the shots that were not connecting clean on Ward left him with bruises all over his face: Kovalev's power is real.

And finally, due to the nature of Kovalev's power any mistake can be catastrophic for Ward. A knockdown or 2 can close the lead Ward would naturally be building. And, as always, the threat of a K.O. remains.

So, to sum it up:
As a Kovalev fan, I believe that Ward should be favored going into the second fight, as all the evidence from the first suggest Ward gets better with more rounds vs a given opponent, but Kovalev's power and aging/damage variables give Kovalev a real chance to win.

Prediction: UD Ward(116-112)

[boliodogs]

Keep on dreaming and talking yourself into this. Kovalev clearly won the first fight in the opinion of the majority of viewers. It's mainly Ward fans who think Ward deserved to win. Kovalev is angry he got robbed and will make sure he doesn't get robbed again by knocking Ward out. This is something only Kovalev can do. Ward is incapable of knocking Kovalev out. Ward doesn't punch hard enough to knock out a good light heavyweight.

[A.K]

Nah more like jones tarver 2 it's lhw and ward is nothing like Floyd.

[.:: JSFD26 ::.]

Keep on dreaming and talking yourself into this. Kovalev clearly won the first fight in the opinion of the majority of viewers. It's mainly Ward fans who think Ward deserved to win. Kovalev is angry he got robbed and will make sure he doesn't get robbed again by knocking Ward out. This is something only Kovalev can do. Ward is incapable of knocking Kovalev out. Ward doesn't punch hard enough to knock out a good light heavyweight.

Yea... Like Golovkin was gonna knock Jacobs out cold, right?

[pacmanis1]

Full disclosure, Kovalev fan.

I think this fight will be similar to Maidana-Floyd 2. As evident by the first fight, the longer it went the better Ward was getting. Now, I fully believe the Kovalev won the fight and the judges got it wrong, but everybody can see that Ward was winning more rounds towards the latter half of the fight.

As with any boxer vs puncher(boxer-puncher in this case) match up, the rematch generally favors the purer boxer. I fully expect for Kovalev to take 2 of the first 3-4 rounds and 2-3 of the remaining 8-9 rounds. The score cards should be similar to the first fight(albeit slightly wider), minus the knock down, as I don't think ward will get knocked down again(certainly if he stays on his feet the first 2 to 3 rounds). Scores are expected to be 115-113 to 117-111 for Ward.

Now, having said all of this, Kovalev still has chances in this fight. If we look at the first fight, we can see that Ward was beat up. At the end Kovalev looked tired, but Ward looked beat up. At 33 getting beat up for 12 rounds only saps strengths from future fights. Additionally, the rounds that Ward did win were won through attrition; Ward took a lot of punishment to win those rounds. And as you can tell, even the shots that were not connecting clean on Ward left him with bruises all over his face: Kovalev's power is real.

And finally, due to the nature of Kovalev's power any mistake can be catastrophic for Ward. A knockdown or 2 can close the lead Ward would naturally be building. And, as always, the threat of a K.O. remains.

So, to sum it up:
As a Kovalev fan, I believe that Ward should be favored going into the second fight, as all the evidence from the first suggest Ward gets better with more rounds vs a given opponent, but Kovalev's power and aging/damage variables give Kovalev a real chance to win.

Prediction: UD Ward(116-112)

I agree with you. Had Kovalev winning but Ward was doing better as the fight wore on and rematches tend to favor the boxers like you say.

[boliodogs]

You sound more like a Ward fan than a Kovalev fan. Only a Ward fan would predict a 116 to 112 win for Ward over Kovalev. I am a real Kovalev fan and the reason I am a fan is partly because he is the best light heavyweight in the world and a better fighter than Ward. Nobody knows for sure how Ward-Kovalev 2 will end but I am betting my money on Krusher K by knock out.

[Redd Foxx]

the rematch generally favors the purer boxer.

That's a big factor, though Kovalev is pretty deep as a boxer. His power just misleads people to think otherwise.

The first went very different than I expected. I didn't think Ward would stand there in front of him and just look to slip and counter. Really thought he'd be using his feet. 2nd is hard to predict but I think it will be very close with Ward winning by a couple rounds.

[Porter's Dad]

I mostly agree with the take on the fight but Floyd-Maidana 2 comparison is a little bit of a stretch as the talent disparity between Ward-Kovalev is far less, nor does Ward have the leverage that Mayweather does - meaning he (Floyd) could hold and run all night, have a ref favourable to him, and even control the gloves Chino could have. I can't see it being wide but 116-112 sounds feasible.

Maybe Mayweather-Castillo 2 is the better comparison.

[Redd Foxx]

You sound more like a Ward fan than a Kovalev fan. Only a Ward fan would predict a 116 to 112 win for Ward over Kovalev.

Huh? I pick against guys I'm rooting for all the time. You're essentially saying people need to lie in order to be fans. I don't feel that's the case.

[j0zef]

While I do disagree with you in that I see a different result, I think this is a great analysis and I would not be surprised if this is exactly how in works.

Personally, I think Kovalev has really wanted to show off his boxing skills last fight and tried to show that he could beat Andre at his own game. In the rematch, I expect a completely different approach and attitude.