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Seems it seem this one might happen, although you never know with a whiner and a diva, lets make an in-depth prediction. First lets look at the important factors, then attributes, and then lets brake down the fight.
Factors
The weight.
If this one takes place it should be at 151 or less. Cotto is a chubby boy and JMM isn't that big, although Memo can always help with that. In any case I think 149-150 is fair. JMM can always come in light, and their would be no point in Cotto going below149-150. No glory in fighting a drained man (although this fight is all for the money).
Age
It's been quite a while since JMM has been in the ring, and knee injuries are no joke. Cotto is no spring chicken either and the Canelo fight showed he is no longer willing to go to war for extended periods. Who is less shopworn???
Next the attributes
This one is kind of iffy because JMM hasnt fought so long. Still, i will base it on his last performance. I will begin with the attributes that favor Cotto, and then those that favor Marquez.
Jab
This one will determine the fight in my view. Cotto has an elite jab when he uses it with conviction. He couldn't do that against Canelo because canelita has a very good right hand and counters with authority when his opponents are that much smaller than him. Hell even if Cotto jabs like he did against Canelo (not that much conviction but did double and triple it) I think it could get him a comfy UD.
The jab can determine this match up because JMM doesn't know much what to do when someone elite-jabs him. It's up to Cotto how hard he wants his night to be.
The left hook
Cotto has a mean left hook and JMM is vulnerable to that punch (see Diaz, FMJ, Katsidis) because he doesn't seem to see it coming. This punch could seal the deal for Cotto as long as he uses with conviction and off the jab. I seriously see a Cotto stoppage by 9 if Cotto comes well prepared.
Chin
This one is a plus in Cotto's corner. I might question Cotto's heart and durability sometimes, but not his chin. The two guys that stopped cotto overwhelmed him with volume power-punching and smothered his work. JMM doesnt have the tools or style to do that. If Cotto's chin is what it was for Canelo then it should be enough.
Styles
JMM is naturally smaller, older, messed up knee (just like Cotto likes them), that can't deal with an elite jab like it can be seen in some of his loses.
Now the attributed that favor Marquez
The right hand
Cotto will have to be on point and not go to war very often to avoid getting his jab countered by the JMM fight hand.
The uppercut/combos
Cotto loves eating these like M&Ms and JMM will oblige if Cotto gets ****y. Still I think Cotto has enough of a skillful jab and power in the left hook to keep JMM from landing this punch in a significant manner.
Stamina/Heart
JMM has no quit in him and will keep Cotto on his toes until the end.
Fight breakdown
I see the first 3 rounds tentative but with Cotto clearly winning them with his jab. I also see Cotto knocking down JMM once in these rounds with a left hook.
By this point I see Cotto getting a bit ****y thinking JMM can't hurt him. I see this as JMM's only chance. Catching Cotto when Cotto gets ****y and strays too much from the jab into the combo world.
By round 7/8 i think JMM is out of luck. If he didn't manage to goad Cotto into a war where his combos get him the knock out...i think Cotto will realize JMM is not one to trade with and Cotto will cruise to a decision.
If it gets to the championship rounds i expect JMM to look humiliated and for Cotto to get a 8-4/ 9-3 decision.
Your thoughts???
Factors
The weight.
If this one takes place it should be at 151 or less. Cotto is a chubby boy and JMM isn't that big, although Memo can always help with that. In any case I think 149-150 is fair. JMM can always come in light, and their would be no point in Cotto going below149-150. No glory in fighting a drained man (although this fight is all for the money).
Age
It's been quite a while since JMM has been in the ring, and knee injuries are no joke. Cotto is no spring chicken either and the Canelo fight showed he is no longer willing to go to war for extended periods. Who is less shopworn???
Next the attributes
This one is kind of iffy because JMM hasnt fought so long. Still, i will base it on his last performance. I will begin with the attributes that favor Cotto, and then those that favor Marquez.
Jab
This one will determine the fight in my view. Cotto has an elite jab when he uses it with conviction. He couldn't do that against Canelo because canelita has a very good right hand and counters with authority when his opponents are that much smaller than him. Hell even if Cotto jabs like he did against Canelo (not that much conviction but did double and triple it) I think it could get him a comfy UD.
The jab can determine this match up because JMM doesn't know much what to do when someone elite-jabs him. It's up to Cotto how hard he wants his night to be.
The left hook
Cotto has a mean left hook and JMM is vulnerable to that punch (see Diaz, FMJ, Katsidis) because he doesn't seem to see it coming. This punch could seal the deal for Cotto as long as he uses with conviction and off the jab. I seriously see a Cotto stoppage by 9 if Cotto comes well prepared.
Chin
This one is a plus in Cotto's corner. I might question Cotto's heart and durability sometimes, but not his chin. The two guys that stopped cotto overwhelmed him with volume power-punching and smothered his work. JMM doesnt have the tools or style to do that. If Cotto's chin is what it was for Canelo then it should be enough.
Styles
JMM is naturally smaller, older, messed up knee (just like Cotto likes them), that can't deal with an elite jab like it can be seen in some of his loses.
Now the attributed that favor Marquez
The right hand
Cotto will have to be on point and not go to war very often to avoid getting his jab countered by the JMM fight hand.
The uppercut/combos
Cotto loves eating these like M&Ms and JMM will oblige if Cotto gets ****y. Still I think Cotto has enough of a skillful jab and power in the left hook to keep JMM from landing this punch in a significant manner.
Stamina/Heart
JMM has no quit in him and will keep Cotto on his toes until the end.
Fight breakdown
I see the first 3 rounds tentative but with Cotto clearly winning them with his jab. I also see Cotto knocking down JMM once in these rounds with a left hook.
By this point I see Cotto getting a bit ****y thinking JMM can't hurt him. I see this as JMM's only chance. Catching Cotto when Cotto gets ****y and strays too much from the jab into the combo world.
By round 7/8 i think JMM is out of luck. If he didn't manage to goad Cotto into a war where his combos get him the knock out...i think Cotto will realize JMM is not one to trade with and Cotto will cruise to a decision.
If it gets to the championship rounds i expect JMM to look humiliated and for Cotto to get a 8-4/ 9-3 decision.
Your thoughts???
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