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When something looks too good to be true, it usually is.
I'm not saying it's conclusive...but very often when we've seen an athlete going through his 30s and not just maintain his performance, but IMPROVE performance - often against higher-level competition - it has turned out to have been achieved through PEDs. Examples:
Manny Pacquiao? In 2006-08, at 28-30 years of age, he goes 12 rounds with Oscar Larios, 12 with Barrera, and 12 with Marquez - all just super feather (130 lbs.). No stoppages, all decisions. 12-18 months later, at 31-33 years old age, he batters and TKOs two full-blown 147-lbers - De La Hoya and Cotto - who have been fighting at welterweight for years. Red flag?
Floyd? Had to argue there are red flags. Putting aside the fluke Victor Ortiz KO, Floyd only KO/TKO'ed two guys (Hatton and Mitchell) in the last 10 years of his career. So while Floyd moved up in weight as he got older, the results were as expected - i.e., his knockouts decreased/stopped altogether, as opposed to Manny, who got more power and performed better as he got older.
GGG? Jury is still out. Strange to see someone putting on as much muscle as he has when 30 years old is further and further in his rear view mirror.
I'm not saying it's conclusive...but very often when we've seen an athlete going through his 30s and not just maintain his performance, but IMPROVE performance - often against higher-level competition - it has turned out to have been achieved through PEDs. Examples:
- MARK MCGWIRE: Always a good hitter, McGwire averaged 36 HRs per year through his early 20s before hitting the injury wall. But starting in 1996, AT AGE 32, his annual HR totals read 52, 58, 70, 65....at 32 - 35 years old. Improving performance after the age of 30 is a red flag. Ultimately admitted steroid use.
- JASON GIAMBI: Until age 30, averaged 28 HRs per year. Starting in 2001, at age 30, and continuing until he was 36, he averaged 37 HRs per year (excluding one injury-shortened year). Red flag. Later admitted steroid and HGH use starting in 2001, at age 30.
- RAFAEL PALMEIRO: For five years, from 1998-2002, he achieved career high HR totals - when he was 34-38 years old. Red flag. Positive steroid test in 2005.
- LANCE ARMSTRONG: Came back from cancer at 26, resumed racing at 27, won 7 consecutive Tour de France titles from 1999-2005 - at ages 28-34. Improving performance after age year. Red flag. Later stripped of his titles for doping.
- ROGER CLEMENS: From ages 23-29 (1986-92), averages over 250 innings pitched per year, with an ERA well under 3.00. Ages 30-32 (1993-95), he falls off, averaging 170 innings per year, with an ERA well over 3.00. Ages 33-42 (1996-2005), averages over 200 IP per year again, with several years of sub-3.00 ERA. Red flag. Never caught, but highly suspect.
Manny Pacquiao? In 2006-08, at 28-30 years of age, he goes 12 rounds with Oscar Larios, 12 with Barrera, and 12 with Marquez - all just super feather (130 lbs.). No stoppages, all decisions. 12-18 months later, at 31-33 years old age, he batters and TKOs two full-blown 147-lbers - De La Hoya and Cotto - who have been fighting at welterweight for years. Red flag?
Floyd? Had to argue there are red flags. Putting aside the fluke Victor Ortiz KO, Floyd only KO/TKO'ed two guys (Hatton and Mitchell) in the last 10 years of his career. So while Floyd moved up in weight as he got older, the results were as expected - i.e., his knockouts decreased/stopped altogether, as opposed to Manny, who got more power and performed better as he got older.
GGG? Jury is still out. Strange to see someone putting on as much muscle as he has when 30 years old is further and further in his rear view mirror.
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