How Many PPV Buys Will Cotto-Canelo Do?

[CatchAndShoot]

750k, easily. Only reason why I didn't pick 1 mil is because of the Floyd/Pac hangover.

[DannYankee]

Where art thou, Hova?



This weekend’s bout between the de-recognized WBC middleweight titlist Miguel Cotto – and more on that a bit later – and Saul Alvarez from the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, while classified as a “big fight,” has really had a decidedly noticeable lack of buzz as we head into the thick of fight week. This event is a co-promotion between Golden Boy Promotions and Roc Nation Sports.



Perhaps this fight would gain more traction if Jay Z, the face of Roc Nation, would start to participate in the promotion. Because while Oscar De La Hoya has made all the requisite media rounds in the past few week or so, other than dropping by the Wild Card Boxing Club a couple of weeks ago to take a few photos with Cotto and Freddie Roach and making a $100,000 wager with De La Hoya, “Hova” hasn’t lifted a finger.



Mr. Shawn Carter, who has over 3,000,000 followers on Twitter (@S_C_), hasn’t even so much as tweeted about the fight as of Wednesday afternoon. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by everyone involved in this weekend’s promotion, including HBO, which has grown increasingly frustrated by the way this neophyte company has handled its end of this operation. Say what you will about Floyd Mayweather Jr. but at least he has utilized Twitter and Instagram as well as any modern fighter to promote his bouts and even enlisted Justin Bieber and Lil’ Wayne to spread the word.



In today’s world, if you aren’t utilizing social media, you simply aren’t promoting correctly.



Sources tell you that anytime Jay Z is asked to participate in a Roc Nation Sports card – whether it’s giving reporters a few generic quotes on a fight or just showing up to a press conference or weigh-in – it’s summarily nixed for whatever reason. Say what you will about 50 Cent and his SMS Promotions, which went the way of Josephine Abercrombie and America Presents rather quickly; at least 50 would do the obligatory interviews leading up to events and show up to the fights (hell, one time he even zip-lined into the ring as he performed a fighter’s entrance song).



But this really begs the question: Just how involved is Jay Z in this boxing venture and how much does he really care? Is this just a tax write-off or just a high-priced vanity project? Do fighters who are recruited under his banner understand that, other than meeting him once in his fancy office and getting to take a selfie with him, this might be the extent of his involvement in their careers?



(In the spirit of fairness, however, it should be mentioned that Tidal – TidalHiFi on Twitter – the music streaming service owned by Jay Z, is doing its part to promote Cotto-Canelo to some extent.)



De La Hoya, who truly was a transcendent boxer, is the type who still resonates with the public and before he left for Las Vegas, his Monday was spent going from one media outlet to another pushing this event around Los Angeles. His one-man media tour lasted most of the day. Last week, while he was in New Jersey for the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame induction, De La Hoya took care of more media obligations in New York. But for as relevant as the “Golden Boy” has remained, Jay Z’s Q-rating is even higher and he’s the type of individual who would be very easy to pitch for an appearance on radio and television shows. He has the cache not many others have in boxing. The reality might be that he’s not in boxing; he’s just lending his name and image.



No offense to COO David Itskowitch and President and Chief of Branding Strategy Michael Yormark – who basically run the day-to-day operations of Roc Nation’s boxing program – but nobody really knows who they are outside of those in the industry. Quite frankly, nobody in the general public cares about what they have to say.



In Cotto and “Canelo,” you have two boxers who are certainly marquee attractions but their fan-bases are largely Latin and neither speaks English as his first tongue, which makes it a bit problematic in booking them for many radio and television shows across the country (and the track record has shown that the biggest pay-per-view shows on which they have participated saw them as B-sides to Mayweather).



With that, Oscar is doing his best to pick up the slack, as is Freddie Roach (who’s always makes for good copy).



As for “Jigga”?



Well, he does know the fight is this week, right?

http://ucnlive.com/where-art-thou-hova/

I know right the dude farts and it ends up in TMZ, but can't spare some time to give his event some promo. A lot more people would be aware this is going down if he had put even minimal personal PR effort into it.

[Jubei]

Didnt say they say they need a million buys to be profitable? Oscar said he thinks it does 1.5 Million and that Roc Nation dude said 1-2 Million, but closer to 2 million buys.

I think it will do about 700-800k.
Everything below 700 would be pretty bad.

[chaposinaloa]

With those purses they're definitely losing money on this fight.

[Agent Mulder]

It's true though. Jay could have tweeted/instagramed about this just once and it would've secure about another 100 thousand buys

[Don Pichardo]

Me too that makes 2 only 999,998 more! Let's go NSB!

I already bought couple days ago so there is three!!

[big_james10]

Initially I thought it would easily do 1.5 million but as the fight approaches I think 1 million would be a solid achievement. Neither guys are proven as elite PPV and they do around 350k each and with the recent disappointment with Lemieux-GGG which I felt was surrounded by lots of hype; a few promoters may be left a little disappointed. What do you think the fight will do?

I find it hard to believe that boxing fans think overrated vs over-the-hill will sell 1-1.5 million PPVs. I predict it will sell 400,000-550,000, but Oscar will claim 700,000.

I predicted that GGG/Lemiuex would only sell between 50,000 and 150,000 at most. I predicted that Cotto/Martinez would sell no more tan 400,000. Then again, I predicted Mayweather/Pacquaio would break 3 million, but barely.

Cotto/Alvarez could shock me and legitimately sell as much as 700,000, but I seriously doubt if it does that will do more than 550,000.

[big_james10]

With those purses they're definitely losing money on this fight.

Between the live gate, the site fee, the licensing fee paid by HBO, the international broadcast fees and the sponsorships, there is no way this fight will lose money.

The only people losing money on this fight is the WBC. They are losing $125,000.

[b00g13man]

You sure, or is this another miss click?

Only if you try and pull the BS you did when GGG came in low, which I don't expect you to do this time.

[DARKSEID]

I'd say 1.1 mil

If it doesn't break a million then we underestimated Floyd and Pacquiao's drawing power because they're the only ones who could break a million.

This is the biggest fight that can be made in boxing right now, next to Ward vs Kovalez. If it doesn't break a million boxing might be in troubke.