Calculating how well Cotto/Canelo needs to do on PPV

[j0zef]

This is just a quick calc I threw together to estimate how well Cotto/Canelo needs to do.

Assumptions: I don't know how much advertising + venue cost them. I also don't know exactly how much $$ they will generate from physical tickets. I'm assuming they're pretty close to a wash - +/- 1m.
Also assuming that HBO takes 1/2 of the PPV proceeds
Payout info link

Cotto's share of PPV: He gets 27-30m with 1.5m PPV buys with 10m guaranteed. So for 1.5m PPV buys, he generates between 17-20m. 1.5m*70 (avg ppv price HD/nonHD) = 105m. 17m/105 = 16%.
So Cotto gets approximately 16% of the PPV purse.

Purses are 6.5m for Canelo, 10m for Cotto and let's estimate ~2m for all others. That's 18.5m guaranteed purses. To cover HBO, they need to generate twice as much revenue = 37m. Now we need to factor out the variable cost - Cotto's 16% portion.
To do so, I find the approximate break-even revenue where the costs (purses+hbo) are equal to revenue generated (buys x price), which per my calcs is around $54.5m. In order to generate that amount of revenue, there needs to be 778k PPV buys (54.5/70) or 726k if we assume close to 100% of people will buy HD.

Was just curious. Please discuss.

[Larry the boss]

This is a damn good fight but i just do not feel the buzz for it. I see it doing 500-600k...hope im wrong tho

[Redd Foxx]

This is a damn good fight but i just do not feel the buzz for it. I see it doing 500-600k...hope im wrong tho

500 to 600 sounds damn good to me. Especially after Cotto/Martinez did something like 350 (?).
I think the buzz started very early and it's hard to maintain that level of chatter for months. I'm with you in hoping it does great. This is one of the best fights boxing has to offer right now in terms of combining name value with talent so it's a bit of a measuring stick for the sport, IMO.

[MPX309]

Is the date any sort of Holiday or celebration over there on your side of the pond?

[Hougigo]

This is a damn good fight but i just do not feel the buzz for it. I see it doing 500-600k...hope im wrong tho

450 to 500 range IMO

[MasterPlan]

This fight is in like ten days and there is no hype or anything surrounding this fight.

It probably does less than Mayweather-Berto.

[SkillspayBills]

This does 1 mil. Mexico has some of the very best fans this sport has to offer. Yeah I said it!

[PK3434]

In one of dan Rafael's recent chats he made it seem like the numbers have to be excellent for the promotion to make any money because of how high the purses are going to be etc...I don't quite feel the buzz for it yet either but we'll see.

May-paq + easy streaming may have f**ked the ppv game up