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The great imponderable
By Ben Dirs
In Manchester on Saturday night, one of two fashionable theories of modern boxing is likely to be exploded.
Theory one, common among the American boxing fraternity, is that WBO super middleweight champion Joe Calzaghe is a paper tiger who has ducked more folk than a swimming pool bully.
Theory two, prevalent among British boxing writers, is that IBF super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy is over-hyped, untested and will be given a boxing lesson by his more experienced opponent.
For his part, Lacy reckons both schools of thought will be shredded amid a bona fide tear-up at the MEN Arena.
He believes it could pan out like Marvin Hagler-Thomas Hearns in 1985 - both men covering themselves in glory for a few anarchic rounds before Calzaghe, as Hearns, disintegrates.
"I give him credit for his 17 defences, but this is going to be his toughest," the Floridian, who is undefeated in 22 fights (17 KOs), told BBC Sport.
"A true champion rises to the occasion and that's what I'm looking for Joe to do. Joe has fought spectacularly in the past and if he does again, that will bring out the best in me.
"I'm anticipating him moving, but I don't think he'll be able to do it for long. Joe's quite prepared to sit there and **** with you - he's not going to tip-toe to the championship.
"Neither one of us is going to back-pedal, and when you look at our styles, someone is going to go down before 12."
Like middleweight legend Hagler, the 28-year-old Lacy is an imposing specimen and a rampaging pressure fighter. He will look to drill into Calzaghe's chest like a giant mole.
Like multi-weight world champion Hearns, Calzaghe is spry, quick-fisted and packs a serious punch.
But Lacy, who is not called "Left Hook" for nothing, is confident he will not come under Calzaghe's spell.
"I certainly hope he stands toe-to-toe," said Lacy, who won the IBF belt in October 2004 and has defended it four times since.
"But if not, I've been working on some moves. I'm not scared of his speed and if he thinks he's going to mesmerise me, he's got another think coming."
Calzaghe, owner of a 40-0 record with 31 knockouts, is often ridiculed for the quality of his opponents, but the history books show he has fought five world champions to Lacy's one.
The biggest name on Lacy's record is Runcorn's Robin Reid, the former WBC champion who was floored four times last August having stayed upright in his previous 43 fights.
Reid, who dropped a split decision against Calzaghe in 1999, looked spent, even though you had to be impressed by Lacy's power.
Calzaghe is a legend in Wales - and often ridiculed in America
Worryingly for Calzaghe, he has been floored twice in recent fights and his 33-year-old body is starting to creak.
As a result, some feel he has left this career-defining fight a few years too late.
As for Lacy, an Olympic bronze medallist at Sydney 2000, how he will cope with the voracious Manchester crowd is another unknown factor.
He was in the MEN Arena to see Ricky Hatton wrest the IBF light welterweight crown from Kostya Tszyu last June - but Lacy thinks the effect of 20,000 vocal fans was negligible.
"When I was at ringside for the Hatton-Tszyu fight, the atmosphere was electric, the crowd was going crazy. I was like 'wow!', this is a great fight town," said Lacy, a native of St Petersburg, near Tampa.
"But the fans can't help Joe in the ring. It all comes down to our trainers pushing us into the middle and us fighting to keep our titles. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure."
Lacy is a self-confessed homebody who talks wistfully of the "St Pete" in him. He moved to Los Angeles in 2003 but lasted less than a year, admitting that the "vibe of the city put me on edge".
Back in his home town, Lacy rejoined the man who trained him in his amateur days, the venerable Dan Birmingham, and within a year he had beaten Syd Vanderpool for the vacant IBF belt.
His four defences have been against middling opposition in the relatively comfortable surroundings of Las Vegas casinos or, against Reid, back in "St Pete". Manchester's "hair-dryer" treatment could come as a shock.
With so many imponderables in the mix, this fight, the most eagerly-anticipated at 168lb since Nigel Benn met Gerald McClennan on a tragic night in 1995, is almost impossible to pick - unless you are Jeff Lacy.
"It's not a case of 'if' I beat Calzaghe, it's a case of 'when'," said Lacy. "I'm very confident and I will walk away with the world title."
By Ben Dirs
In Manchester on Saturday night, one of two fashionable theories of modern boxing is likely to be exploded.
Theory one, common among the American boxing fraternity, is that WBO super middleweight champion Joe Calzaghe is a paper tiger who has ducked more folk than a swimming pool bully.
Theory two, prevalent among British boxing writers, is that IBF super middleweight champion Jeff Lacy is over-hyped, untested and will be given a boxing lesson by his more experienced opponent.
For his part, Lacy reckons both schools of thought will be shredded amid a bona fide tear-up at the MEN Arena.
He believes it could pan out like Marvin Hagler-Thomas Hearns in 1985 - both men covering themselves in glory for a few anarchic rounds before Calzaghe, as Hearns, disintegrates.
"I give him credit for his 17 defences, but this is going to be his toughest," the Floridian, who is undefeated in 22 fights (17 KOs), told BBC Sport.
"A true champion rises to the occasion and that's what I'm looking for Joe to do. Joe has fought spectacularly in the past and if he does again, that will bring out the best in me.
"I'm anticipating him moving, but I don't think he'll be able to do it for long. Joe's quite prepared to sit there and **** with you - he's not going to tip-toe to the championship.
"Neither one of us is going to back-pedal, and when you look at our styles, someone is going to go down before 12."
Like middleweight legend Hagler, the 28-year-old Lacy is an imposing specimen and a rampaging pressure fighter. He will look to drill into Calzaghe's chest like a giant mole.
Like multi-weight world champion Hearns, Calzaghe is spry, quick-fisted and packs a serious punch.
But Lacy, who is not called "Left Hook" for nothing, is confident he will not come under Calzaghe's spell.
"I certainly hope he stands toe-to-toe," said Lacy, who won the IBF belt in October 2004 and has defended it four times since.
"But if not, I've been working on some moves. I'm not scared of his speed and if he thinks he's going to mesmerise me, he's got another think coming."
Calzaghe, owner of a 40-0 record with 31 knockouts, is often ridiculed for the quality of his opponents, but the history books show he has fought five world champions to Lacy's one.
The biggest name on Lacy's record is Runcorn's Robin Reid, the former WBC champion who was floored four times last August having stayed upright in his previous 43 fights.
Reid, who dropped a split decision against Calzaghe in 1999, looked spent, even though you had to be impressed by Lacy's power.
Calzaghe is a legend in Wales - and often ridiculed in America
Worryingly for Calzaghe, he has been floored twice in recent fights and his 33-year-old body is starting to creak.
As a result, some feel he has left this career-defining fight a few years too late.
As for Lacy, an Olympic bronze medallist at Sydney 2000, how he will cope with the voracious Manchester crowd is another unknown factor.
He was in the MEN Arena to see Ricky Hatton wrest the IBF light welterweight crown from Kostya Tszyu last June - but Lacy thinks the effect of 20,000 vocal fans was negligible.
"When I was at ringside for the Hatton-Tszyu fight, the atmosphere was electric, the crowd was going crazy. I was like 'wow!', this is a great fight town," said Lacy, a native of St Petersburg, near Tampa.
"But the fans can't help Joe in the ring. It all comes down to our trainers pushing us into the middle and us fighting to keep our titles. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure."
Lacy is a self-confessed homebody who talks wistfully of the "St Pete" in him. He moved to Los Angeles in 2003 but lasted less than a year, admitting that the "vibe of the city put me on edge".
Back in his home town, Lacy rejoined the man who trained him in his amateur days, the venerable Dan Birmingham, and within a year he had beaten Syd Vanderpool for the vacant IBF belt.
His four defences have been against middling opposition in the relatively comfortable surroundings of Las Vegas casinos or, against Reid, back in "St Pete". Manchester's "hair-dryer" treatment could come as a shock.
With so many imponderables in the mix, this fight, the most eagerly-anticipated at 168lb since Nigel Benn met Gerald McClennan on a tragic night in 1995, is almost impossible to pick - unless you are Jeff Lacy.
"It's not a case of 'if' I beat Calzaghe, it's a case of 'when'," said Lacy. "I'm very confident and I will walk away with the world title."