For science! Three questions about Olympic Boxing matches

[UniversityProf]

First, I am a university professor doing some research on the statistics of outcomes of matches in Olympic boxing.

Specifically, I am analyzing the outcomes of the 2004 Athens and 2008 Beijing Olympic Boxing matches (all weight classes). My questions pertain to how fighters were assigned to positions in the bracket structure, which is not explained in any of the Olympics documentation. My collaborator and I have tried contacting AIBA, but have gotten no response. We're hoping that you can help us.

For reference, the Athens Boxing results are here
library.la84.org/6oic/OfficialReports/2004/Results/Boxing.pdf
and the Beijing Boxing results can be found here
library.la84.org/6oic/OfficialReports/2008/2008Results_Book1.pdf

Here are our questions:

1. For all but the two heaviest weight classes, the bracket is incomplete and some fighters (4-5 in Athens) received a "bye" to the second round. How was it decided which of the 27-28 fighters received a bye? For instance, were the most skilled fighters given byes, determined via seeding?

2. For the fighters in a given round, how were the initial pairings (first round of competition) decided in either or both Athens 2004 and Beijing 2008? If lots were drawn, were these lots drawn randomly? If so, how were lots converted into pairings? Was seeding or skill used in any way to decide who initially fought whom?

3. Was seeding or prior knowledge of skill used to make any decisions on which contestants fought each other? (For instance, more skilled fighters might be initially paired with less skilled fighters in order to prevent the most skilled fighters eliminating each other in the first and second round, allowing a low-skill fighter to end up in the final.)

Thanks in advance for your help.

Prof. Aaron Clauset
University of Colorado, Boulder

p.s. I'm including my real name here in case you want to check that I am legit.

[Light_Speed]

There was no seeding prior to the 2012 games, that's all I know.

[!! Shawn]

First, I am a university professor doing some research on the statistics of outcomes of matches in Olympic boxing.

Specifically, I am analyzing the outcomes of the 2004 Athens and 2008 Beijing Olympic Boxing matches (all weight classes). My questions pertain to how fighters were assigned to positions in the bracket structure, which is not explained in any of the Olympics documentation. My collaborator and I have tried contacting AIBA, but have gotten no response. We're hoping that you can help us.

For reference, the Athens Boxing results are here
library.la84.org/6oic/OfficialReports/2004/Results/Boxing.pdf
and the Beijing Boxing results can be found here
library.la84.org/6oic/OfficialReports/2008/2008Results_Book1.pdf

Here are our questions:

1. For all but the two heaviest weight classes, the bracket is incomplete and some fighters (4-5 in Athens) received a "bye" to the second round. How was it decided which of the 27-28 fighters received a bye? For instance, were the most skilled fighters given byes, determined via seeding?

2. For the fighters in a given round, how were the initial pairings (first round of competition) decided in either or both Athens 2004 and Beijing 2008? If lots were drawn, were these lots drawn randomly? If so, how were lots converted into pairings? Was seeding or skill used in any way to decide who initially fought whom?

3. Was seeding or prior knowledge of skill used to make any decisions on which contestants fought each other? (For instance, more skilled fighters might be initially paired with less skilled fighters in order to prevent the most skilled fighters eliminating each other in the first and second round, allowing a low-skill fighter to end up in the final.)

Thanks in advance for your help.

Prof. Aaron Clauset
University of Colorado, Boulder

p.s. I'm including my real name here in case you want to check that I am legit.

Not gonna lie! I looked you up! I think you are about to stumble onto a gold mine, and unearth a mountain of corruption.

I would suggest you expand your study to include the 2012 olympics, and see if you can expose any sort of bias in favor of azerbaijan.

The answer to your question is more likely than not political. The matchups use to be a supposedly random draw.

I am not sure if you guys are studying strictly the outcomes, or if you are taking into account the final scoring as well, but I can't wait to see what you guys come up with.

From my own personal experience in the sport, I would be VERY surprised if you guys do not find some statistically significant trends that are indicative of systemic bias and corruption.

[UniversityProf]

Thanks for the replies. It's good to know that there was no seeding before 2012, but I'm still curious about how exactly the initial fights were determined.

I would be surprised if the Olympics would let an outside organization like AIBA do this for them. Does anyone know?

[Russian Crushin]

Thanks for the replies. It's good to know that there was no seeding before 2012, but I'm still curious about how exactly the initial fights were determined.

I would be surprised if the Olympics would let an outside organization like AIBA do this for them. Does anyone know?

Top seeds were determined by the AIBA world championships that precede the olympics i think as well as qualifying events held on each continent

AIBA controls amateur boxing

http://aiba.org/documents/site1/Olym...nSystem_EN.pdf

[Rockin']

I wouldn't know nothin' 'bout no amatuer boxing............ Rockin'

[JohnSmithJr]

Hello Professor Clauset.

I was on member of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 Olympic Boxing Committee and I can assure you fighters were awarded "byes" based on organized Rock, Scissors and Paper games that were held in the Locker Rooms.

[Nooblet]

This is Science

[UniversityProf]

Top seeds were determined by the AIBA world championships that precede the olympics i think as well as qualifying events held on each continent

AIBA controls amateur boxing

aiba.org/documents/site1/Olympics/2012London/London%202012_QualificationSystem_EN.pdf

Okay, but my understanding is that AIBA decides which fighters go to the Olympics (via the regional qualification rounds). Light Speed's comment above suggests that once you qualify for the Olympics, your "rank" or seed doesn't play a role in determining who you fight inside your weight class (prior to the 2012 games). Am I wrong?

[Citizen Koba]

If you look at the draw sheets from the AIBA web site for the 2012 OLympics it's clear that it is the top-seeded fighters who are getting the byes.

http://www.aiba-london2012.com/index...ght-heavy-81kg

Whether the remainder are selected by lot is unclear but I'd assume there is probably a degree of matching going on if they have taken the rankings into account when alloting the byes.

You would need to find the AIBA rankings at the time to establish if this looked statistically likely to be the case however (rather than just random pairing) but I'm sure a little searching through archived pages should give you the rankings at the time.

As for the previous Olympics, I'm afraid I can't help.

EDIT: my bad, I'd understood you were asking about 2012 as well as 2004 and 2008. Still..

When did AIBA start keeping international rankings BTW? If it was only within the last few years (as I believe) they would have had to have other means of seeding the fighters (based perhaps on previous competition performances etc) can you look at the performances of the fighters who got 'byes' in contemporary and earlier competions to the 2004-08 Olympics - eg world championships etc. One would expect the winners and medalists in these competiions to 1) be more likely to get byes and 2) not to be matched together in initial draws as often as statistically likely if the draws and bye allocations were non-random.

Hope I could help.