Canelo's 'oh ****' moment will come before the third round. That moment when every Floyd opponent goes 'this isn't as easy as I thought' as right hand after right hand thuds off of his head and Floyd is nowhere to be found in the followup.
Kind of like how he will be nowhere to be found after the fight when the press is eager to ask him about his loss.
Moreover, Canelo is hardly a pressure fighter. In fact, the big worry with him is his low work rate, as witnessed in the Trout fight that a lot of folks ringside thought was closer than judged. I personally think Canelo won, but it still stands that he's no Paul Williams, not even close.
With the catchweight and Floyd's sharp counters, I doubt Canelo can keep up any amount of pressure that will make Floyd uncomfortable. Most expected a similar game plan from Guerrero, but the simple fact is that Floyd adjusts and deters. A lot of idiots complained that Guerrero didn't stick with his game plan but few do when they're getting hit with sharp counters - not powerful counters, but still ones that make you second guess yourself.
Good observation. This is in fact the reason why I believe Floyd chose to fight Canelo. Canelo is not the typical face first, high work rate, iron stamina, Mexican pressure fighter. He tries to box more within mid distance than pressure up close, he does not have good stamina and has a low work rate. Floyd saw many flaws in Canelo in the Trout fight as many other observers did.
If Canelo fights according to his style, Floyd would would outbox him easily. Canelo is going to have to get out of his comfort zone and be the fighter he's not. His success will be to pressure Floyd behind a jab and use his weight and power advantage. Yet, if he does, he exposes himself to tiring out.
So Canelo has two options. He either tries to box Mayweather behind the jab at mid distance and become a sitting duck to Floyd's accurate counter punches or he closes the distance and uses his weight and power punching advantage but risks getting tired.
Either way Floyd has already figured him out. Canelo definitely has a punchers chance but other than that he hasn't shown me anything that I could say could cause Floyd problems. If and only if, with his current talent Canelo was a face first, high work rate, iron stamina pressure fighter. I would say Floyd was in a world of trouble but Canelo is not that type of fighter.
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