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Originally posted by Carpe Diem
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This dude is still convinced that the fight between Floyd and Manny would be 50/50. It kind of even looks like he would give the slight edge to Manny. I'm not too fond of triangle theories in boxing, but he's giving Manny too much credit.
By Bogotazo
Manny looked the best he's been in years early on in the fight, and the key to his potential success on Mayweather hinges on a few things; one was Manny's great lateral and in-and-out movement complimenting his handspeed, landing lead lefts and anticipating counters before resuming his offense; two was his blend of defensive upper-body movement and rhythm of feints through perpetual motion; and a third was his ability to anticipate some of JMM's reactions to the feints and aiming low. That last point relates to a stylistic strength JMM has over Floyd, which I'll mention at the end. Each of these I think combines into a style that I think gives Floyd a lot to think about early, and perhaps a lead against him to deal with later in the fight.
1. Manny was circling both ways very quickly, and looked more explosive than he had in a long time. His lead left was coming out without much telegraph, and he was able to get lead foot positioning constantly, nullifying JMM's straight right and left hooks, and opening up a path for his own left. He would also set up the left the other way, by hopping all the way to JMM's right, again nullifying his angle momentarily, and also opening up room to circle back the other way. I believe because Floyd is more of a flat-footed counter-puncher who uses his upper body, this kind of movement may make him hesitate to throw early, and open for Manny to get his lead foot on the outside and land to the head and body. JMM circles in-range and pivots around more dramatically. Floyd has a great guard, but his own position is often neutralized on the ground by southpaws that step around. The ways in which he has adjusted have been mostly applying front-foot pressure in a way that I think would doom him against Manny, and forms of parrying the right jab that might not suit neutralizing Manny's speedy rhythm early on. Something to think about was that JMM wasn't fighting to take away his angle, but again, Floyd has never circled with that purpose in mind.
2. The feints and confusing head movement are great assets that come out when Manny is at his best, and they were able to draw JMM's counters and leave him vulnerable. Countering the counter-puncher first takes a trigger, which is what Manny and company were missing in the 3rd fight. Marquez has read Manny's feints, and was eventualy able to time them as usual, but he was still unsure as to when to throw early, despite his aggressive nature. Floyd's efficiency I think would leave him offensively lacking early on, despite a jab to the body + retreat, etc. The Ward-Dawson fight showed how feints can offset a boxer/counter-puncher who relies a lot on their upper body movement, instead of perpetually sidestepping, particularly opposite-stance fighters. Ward was fighting at mid-range for the first 5 or so rounds of the fight, and getting off by first feinting, then pivoting leftwards to set up his jab, left hook, and right hand. Chad's left straight was nowhere to be seen because he had no angle for it and was too planted due to the feints to circle out. This is of course linking back to the first point of lead foot positioning.
3. (A) A third point is that Roach prepared Manny for JMM's low ducking. In the 3rd fight, Marquez was staying lower than usual (an adjustment he's made in recent years to distract and confuse opponents as to what angles the punches were coming from, leaning as if peering through the guard like a window), and this cause Manny to lunge with his right hook and fall in on the inside, where JMM would punish him with body shots. Here, he stayed back after feinting (as indicated in point 2), and was finishing combinations with hard right hands and lefts aimed directly at JMM's low bending. He had success with this anytime Marquez angled his head rightwards. The way Marquez eventually timed Pacquiao, besides sporadically coming forward as Manny pulled out like he did in all of the previous fights, was by swiveling his head the other way, also as he had done in all the previous fights.
3. (B) Slipping outside towards the left against a southpaw at a low angle nullifies both a right jab, hook, or left straight from landing. Here are some references:
Because Floyd relies on his Philly Shell a lot, his subtle and crafty changes of level happen towards the right of his head. He's quite good at it, but he almost never slips with his body angled towards the left; this is something common for fighters who keep their left hand low in their guard. They become more angled and less of a target, but their head doesn't often move side to side. In the Bradley fight, Bradley was slipping by either leaning backwards or ducking to his right side, and Manny eventually started timing him with left straight down low where his head was going to be. He did the same against Marquez (before he started ad******g with pervious tactics) picking off the uppercuts he was throwing towards the end of the 3rd, which JMM later commented on. I think a similar shot might be open against Floyd when he ducks down in his shell towards the right, or leans back.
Going back to the Ward-Dawson fight, the first knockdown Ward had against Dawson was set up in a very similar way to the way Pacquiao knocked down Cotto (any gifs of either would be appreciated here folks.) Feinting, then pivoting before throwing a combination ending in a right hand against an opponent leaning to the side of their lead hand is likely to knock them off balance. Floyd's height may work against him here, as I don't see him able to slip the same way. He may be able to circle the other way and get off his right hands that way; it's what he did against Ortiz, and he's great at stepping along the perimeter of a ring, walking people into shots as they follow him. Whether this pattern would emerge depends on how focused Manny is on stepping over and cutting the ring off like in Bradley and parts of JMM4, as opposed to following an opponent around like JMM 3. I also think your best bet for landing a right against a southpaw circling the other way is if you're inside, like Marquez and Ward were both able to do against Manny and Ward, and while Floyd fights great on the inside, he doesn't initiate the fight there without an opponent first getting there.
In Conclusion: This is not to suggest that Manny Pacquiao is definitely going to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. What I'm doing is highlighting the different dynamics between Manny fighting Marquez, and Manny fighting Mayweather, who set up their counters differently, move differently, think differently, and fight differently. Triangle theory doesn't work in boxing, you don't get wins by proxy, and styles-not LABELS-make fights. It was Juan Manuel Marquez who knocked out Manny Pacquiao in the ring last Saturday night, him alone.
By Bogotazo
Manny looked the best he's been in years early on in the fight, and the key to his potential success on Mayweather hinges on a few things; one was Manny's great lateral and in-and-out movement complimenting his handspeed, landing lead lefts and anticipating counters before resuming his offense; two was his blend of defensive upper-body movement and rhythm of feints through perpetual motion; and a third was his ability to anticipate some of JMM's reactions to the feints and aiming low. That last point relates to a stylistic strength JMM has over Floyd, which I'll mention at the end. Each of these I think combines into a style that I think gives Floyd a lot to think about early, and perhaps a lead against him to deal with later in the fight.
1. Manny was circling both ways very quickly, and looked more explosive than he had in a long time. His lead left was coming out without much telegraph, and he was able to get lead foot positioning constantly, nullifying JMM's straight right and left hooks, and opening up a path for his own left. He would also set up the left the other way, by hopping all the way to JMM's right, again nullifying his angle momentarily, and also opening up room to circle back the other way. I believe because Floyd is more of a flat-footed counter-puncher who uses his upper body, this kind of movement may make him hesitate to throw early, and open for Manny to get his lead foot on the outside and land to the head and body. JMM circles in-range and pivots around more dramatically. Floyd has a great guard, but his own position is often neutralized on the ground by southpaws that step around. The ways in which he has adjusted have been mostly applying front-foot pressure in a way that I think would doom him against Manny, and forms of parrying the right jab that might not suit neutralizing Manny's speedy rhythm early on. Something to think about was that JMM wasn't fighting to take away his angle, but again, Floyd has never circled with that purpose in mind.
2. The feints and confusing head movement are great assets that come out when Manny is at his best, and they were able to draw JMM's counters and leave him vulnerable. Countering the counter-puncher first takes a trigger, which is what Manny and company were missing in the 3rd fight. Marquez has read Manny's feints, and was eventualy able to time them as usual, but he was still unsure as to when to throw early, despite his aggressive nature. Floyd's efficiency I think would leave him offensively lacking early on, despite a jab to the body + retreat, etc. The Ward-Dawson fight showed how feints can offset a boxer/counter-puncher who relies a lot on their upper body movement, instead of perpetually sidestepping, particularly opposite-stance fighters. Ward was fighting at mid-range for the first 5 or so rounds of the fight, and getting off by first feinting, then pivoting leftwards to set up his jab, left hook, and right hand. Chad's left straight was nowhere to be seen because he had no angle for it and was too planted due to the feints to circle out. This is of course linking back to the first point of lead foot positioning.
3. (A) A third point is that Roach prepared Manny for JMM's low ducking. In the 3rd fight, Marquez was staying lower than usual (an adjustment he's made in recent years to distract and confuse opponents as to what angles the punches were coming from, leaning as if peering through the guard like a window), and this cause Manny to lunge with his right hook and fall in on the inside, where JMM would punish him with body shots. Here, he stayed back after feinting (as indicated in point 2), and was finishing combinations with hard right hands and lefts aimed directly at JMM's low bending. He had success with this anytime Marquez angled his head rightwards. The way Marquez eventually timed Pacquiao, besides sporadically coming forward as Manny pulled out like he did in all of the previous fights, was by swiveling his head the other way, also as he had done in all the previous fights.
3. (B) Slipping outside towards the left against a southpaw at a low angle nullifies both a right jab, hook, or left straight from landing. Here are some references:
Because Floyd relies on his Philly Shell a lot, his subtle and crafty changes of level happen towards the right of his head. He's quite good at it, but he almost never slips with his body angled towards the left; this is something common for fighters who keep their left hand low in their guard. They become more angled and less of a target, but their head doesn't often move side to side. In the Bradley fight, Bradley was slipping by either leaning backwards or ducking to his right side, and Manny eventually started timing him with left straight down low where his head was going to be. He did the same against Marquez (before he started ad******g with pervious tactics) picking off the uppercuts he was throwing towards the end of the 3rd, which JMM later commented on. I think a similar shot might be open against Floyd when he ducks down in his shell towards the right, or leans back.
Going back to the Ward-Dawson fight, the first knockdown Ward had against Dawson was set up in a very similar way to the way Pacquiao knocked down Cotto (any gifs of either would be appreciated here folks.) Feinting, then pivoting before throwing a combination ending in a right hand against an opponent leaning to the side of their lead hand is likely to knock them off balance. Floyd's height may work against him here, as I don't see him able to slip the same way. He may be able to circle the other way and get off his right hands that way; it's what he did against Ortiz, and he's great at stepping along the perimeter of a ring, walking people into shots as they follow him. Whether this pattern would emerge depends on how focused Manny is on stepping over and cutting the ring off like in Bradley and parts of JMM4, as opposed to following an opponent around like JMM 3. I also think your best bet for landing a right against a southpaw circling the other way is if you're inside, like Marquez and Ward were both able to do against Manny and Ward, and while Floyd fights great on the inside, he doesn't initiate the fight there without an opponent first getting there.
In Conclusion: This is not to suggest that Manny Pacquiao is definitely going to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. What I'm doing is highlighting the different dynamics between Manny fighting Marquez, and Manny fighting Mayweather, who set up their counters differently, move differently, think differently, and fight differently. Triangle theory doesn't work in boxing, you don't get wins by proxy, and styles-not LABELS-make fights. It was Juan Manuel Marquez who knocked out Manny Pacquiao in the ring last Saturday night, him alone.
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