At 154 this is a 50-50 fight. Cotto has the style to beat someone like Martinez because of his jab and the way Martinez keeps his hands down. Cotto would time him perfectly and score a UD.
I am pretty sure Martinez KOs him. Martinez's left hand is a fast, accurate and deadly weapon. Cotto can't avoid it and he can't survive it. Martinez is bigger, faster, has better stamina, skills and more heart.
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