The perfect storm: The reason why Manny Pacquiao will lose.

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  • Dudley
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    #1

    The perfect storm: The reason why Manny Pacquiao will lose.

    I recently started talking to one of my friends who gambles allot and he was talking boxing and he's an older guy in his 50's who was around the circuit back in the day making big bets on big fights. He still keeps pretty current but doesn't bet anymore. And he touched upon odds and the general public, not us guys who are in the know.

    And he said it's perfect math why some fights like this Pacquiao vs Bradley is going down. "Arum owns the rights to Manny's first loss. He also said, in boxing styles make fights (tell me something I don't know) and you see what a fighter can deal with well threw his career. A fighter who has a match turn into a brawl, or a fighter who get's cut, what does he do? Now as a promoter you always make sure you know what your fighter can and cannot do well." But he said boxing ultimately comes down to business when your a promoter. Keep it all in house is a good business. "Arum is smart" But the best way to make the most amount of money is when, and this is what shook me, "You have a superstar out of nowhere get beat by a nobody. You have a fighter you build up once they reach a certain place everyone expects him to not lose, and when everyone is comfortable with that notion, that's when you cash 'em out. You pick a nobody fighter who beats your superstar, and you bet LARGE on the nobody. You see nobody will see it coming, because he's a guaranteed bet in the eye's of the public. That is the best way to make money because the odds are so stacked like 10-1, you make a killing!

    IMO Arum is Cashing out Pacquiao and using Bradly's relatively anonymous nature to do it.

    If i'm wrong, i'm wrong, but if i'm right, well then what we have here is Arum who is a straight up dirty promoter IMO. It's like a guy who knows which stock will fall and rise and trading when you know it's on it's way out to maximize your profit. He can Pac and if the fight with Mayweather ever happens Pac will be viewed as broken and noone will be interested, and everyone loses except Arum.

    That's Why we all find it really confusing why Arum would put Bradley in with Pac. Pac is done, that's why he has always been focusing all his energy on things outside of boxing and using boxing as a vehicle.

    Thoughts ? Am I full of ****? Do i have a valid point? Will this thread be deleted? Do I sound like an a.ss?
  • King Jaffe Joffer
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    #2
    Interesting.. Unless Arum knows Pac is really thinking about retiring then you have a point. Otherwise Arum can continue to rob Pac blind fighting shot washed up fighters with names..

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    • Dudley
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      #3
      Originally posted by King Jaffe Joffer
      Interesting.. Unless Arum knows Pac is really thinking about retiring then you have a point. Otherwise Arum can continue to rob Pac blind fighting shot washed up fighters with names..
      In this fight he banks on the odds. Plain in simple imo. No one besides us know about Bradley and he won but looks terrible vs Casamayor. but won. Who do you think the general public will look. Back to his last fight! unimpressive against a guy he should have beat who is a bum!

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      • Dudley
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        #4
        Dwyer how he looks at the betting.

        https://<iframe width="560" height="...reen></iframe>

        As much as you may disagree, he does make some good points from an odds perspective.

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        • mikemurni
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          #5
          Originally posted by Dudley
          https://<iframe width="560" height="...reen></iframe>

          As much as you may disagree, he does make some good points from an odds perspective.
          So you will give Pac full credit then when he wins..with no excuses..

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          • keelaybrown
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            #6
            i thought that this is what might be going on

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            • tibbar
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              #7
              you think too much, the truth is you can always bet on a nobody the odds will be good for your money but youll always know at the back of your mind the moment you placed your bet you already have lost it and it would be only wishful thinking that it will return to you manyfold. of couse you are full of s hit

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              • Jayallday9
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                #8
                Absolutely correct if you ask me. I've been telling my friends for over a year now that Arum is very smart in this game. He promoted the best from Ali, SRL, Hagler, ect. so he knows he will get value out of Bradley, he's young, very well conditioned, and he has the will to win and couple that with good match-making, he can lead Top Rank for a while as the guy who beat Pac and is a threat to Floyd. Like you said these promoters know their guys strengths and weakness and who they will look good against. Now, i like Pac but as a hardcore fan I saw years ago that he will shine against people who can't really box and they also used Floyd's name to boost Pac into superstardom. Bradley is perfect right now cause he's unknown to casuals and has enough tools to beat Pac, Arum will cash out real heavy with the world thinking Pac will win and he can keep sailing with Tim!! Makes sense if Tim only needs 5mill to fight,bet large AGAINST Pac and really cash out, and won't have to share ppv revenue with Floyd!!

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                • Phenom
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                  #9
                  hate to shoot holes in that theory but Bradley is waste to pass the torch too he will never sell out an arena he doesn't have the personalty No charisma, he is ugly as fuck and most importantly his fights are sometimes painful to watch

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                  • sicko
                    The Truth Hurts
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                    #10
                    Bradley taking the Torch is not really to make Bradley a star, is set up so many possiblities for the next group of fighters on the rise

                    you could do the Winner of Rios/Gamboa vs Bradley at 140, you could do Bradley vs Peterson/JMM...I am not a Arum fan at all, but the man is always thinking AHEAD

                    he don't give a *** about protecting Pacquiao's legacy, if Pacquiao is truly going to retire after this fight then I think it is a very good chance that he will lose this fight, this is why I think things like "Concerns About Pacquiao Being Motivatived For This Fight" "Pacquiao Retiring For Religious Purposes" all of these things are being Mentioned so if he loses the Criticism won't be as bad or his legacy won't be tarnished, people will just say "HE LOST HIS PASSION FOR BOXING"

                    These conspiracies are taking away from Bradley though, I don't think Bradley need anything to be fixed or any type of "PASS THE TORCH" conspiracy, I think Bradley will be a VERY THOUGH FIGHT or Pacquiao...VERY! Win, Lose or Draw

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