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Dan Rafeal give the inside scoop on Khan-Bradley
when HBO decided to get deeply involved in the junior welterweight division in 2010 by making commitments to Amir Khan, Timothy Bradley Jr. and Devon Alexander, as well as putting Marcos Maidana on again, the idea was to create excitement in a division that is top-heavy with young talent.
Ideally, there would have been an unofficial tournament and a series of great fights culminating in the unification of most of the belts and a No. 1 fighter in the 140-pound division being crowned -- not to mention a potential pay-per-view opponent emerging for Floyd Mayweather Jr. or Manny Pacquiao (before Top Rank took Pacquiao from HBO to Showtime).
The plan started off with a bang. Khan fought Maidana in December in a tremendous fight, which will be honored next week in Las Vegas at the annual Boxing Writers Association of America awards dinner as the 2010 fight of the year.
But then Bradley and Alexander met in January to unify their belts. Great idea on paper, but a horrendous stinker in the ring, exacerbated by an inexplicable guarantee by HBO to pay hefty fees for their next fights, win or lose.
Bradley-Alexander ended in an unsatisfying technical decision in a venue where it didn't belong -- the cavernous Silverdome in Pontiac, Mich., where few cared to come out on a bitterly cold and snowy night. Even if the weather had been great, Bradley and Alexander had no connection to the region. Co-promoters Gary Shaw and Don King took the fight there because Silverdome owner Andreas Apostolopoulous paid in the neighborhood of $600,000 to host the fight. Why? Who knows, but he did and the promoters took the money rather than try to cultivate an event in St. Louis, where Alexander is a good draw.
To top it off, the fight did a miserable rating, considering the $3 million or so HBO paid for it and all the marketing assets it put behind the fight. The public, largely unfamiliar with either guy, basically ignored it. I won't second-guess the making of the fight at all. You win some, you lose some. But the problem is that HBO remains on the hook to pay big money for the fighters' next bouts, which is an issue as it tries to lock down Bradley-Khan for the finale of the unofficial tournament.
Specifically, HBO wants to put on Bradley-Khan in another unification bout on July 23.
Khan easily won an interim bout April 16 against Paul McCloskey and worked out his deal with promoter Golden Boy to face Bradley. Golden Boy's Richard Schaefer and Shaw cut their deal, as well as one with HBO, which is willing to pay $3 million for the fight.
The last piece of the puzzle was for Shaw to come to terms with Bradley and his managers, Cameron Dunkin and Michael Miller. That's where it gets sticky and that's why it doesn't look like the fight will happen, unless something radically changes between Shaw and Team Bradley.
They disagree on the money, naturally, and if you know Dunkin and Shaw, that won't be easy to overcome. They get along about as well as Democrats and Republicans.
"I can't even get into it. It is not going well," Dunkin said to me about the talks on Wednesday. "That is all I'm gonna say."
I guess it's possible that HBO could throw more money at the fight to bridge the gap, but don't count on it; $3 million is already a huge number for the fight, especially when Khan-Bradley could end up like Bradley-Alexander: ugly in the ring (think Khan's sometimes-awkward style versus Bradley's penchant for head-butts) and without serious public demand.
Khan did a big crowd of about 17,000 in his native England for the McCloskey fight, but he's not yet that kind of draw in America, where the fight is supposed to take place (Las Vegas or Southern California).
Bradley is a non-entity when it comes to selling tickets in the United States -- another reason why his HBO fees are so out of whack with reality. He hasn't even been able to sell out a 2,000-seat ballroom in a casino minutes from his hometown of Palm Springs, Calif. (If Bradley-Khan actually does come off, it belongs in England, but that ain't happening.)
Shaw told me that Bradley and his managers rejected an offer of more than $1.3 million for the fight, which probably would generate somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.3 million (HBO money, gate, sponsors and foreign TV minus expenses). Dunkin confirmed the offer.
Bradley's number could rise depending on the variables of the revenues (other than the HBO money) because he and Shaw maintain an 80-20 split of the profit (80 percent to Bradley).
That's an enormous payday for Bradley, considering he has no real public profile and would be making about $200,000 more than he made to fight Alexander. Some might think Shaw should pay him more. Others might think Bradley is a fool to turn down that kind of money. But this is an important factor to consider: When HBO made Bradley-Alexander, each guy was guaranteed at least a $1.2 million fight in his return, win or lose.
Alexander's is June 25 against Lucas Matthysse. Bradley's is supposed to be against Khan. But here's the position of Bradley's team: Why not just take a $1.2 million fight against, theoretically, an easier opponent, instead of facing Khan for a few dollars more? That is not an unreasonable position.
According to Shaw, Bradley's deal with HBO had four pre-approved opponents for his first post-Alexander fight (win or lose): Alexander in a rematch at HBO's option (obviously not happening), Andre Berto (who lost his welterweight belt April 16 and is unavailable), Maidana (Golden Boy has other plans) and Khan.
Also, according to Shaw and Dunkin, Bradley's next fight is due to take place by June 30, which is when Bradley's deal with Shaw expires. Bradley was willing to put off the fight for an extra three weeks because HBO has no dates available before the end of June, but if he doesn't take the Khan fight, he may be waiting a lot longer. (Keep in mind, there aren't likely a whole lot of fans desperate to see Khan-Bradley right now, so if it doesn't happen, so be it.)
In that case, Khan would keep July 23 and fight somebody else. (I'd like to see titleholder Zab Judah get the call, especially now that it's unlikely Juan Manuel Marquez will accept an offer to face him July on HBO PPV on July 30.)
That would leave Bradley idle until at least September (HBO likely won't do a fight in August) and probably upset, because he was supposed to fight by June 30.
All of this could have been avoided had HBO not promised a return fight for a big fee to a guy with no ability to generate revenue outside of an arbitrary license fee. Without that crutch, the $1.3 million-plus to fight Khan probably would be looking pretty sweet to Bradley.
What we are seeing unfold right now is the downside of a bad business deal for Bradley-Alexander. It was a fight many of us wanted to see. But at what cost?
Ideally, there would have been an unofficial tournament and a series of great fights culminating in the unification of most of the belts and a No. 1 fighter in the 140-pound division being crowned -- not to mention a potential pay-per-view opponent emerging for Floyd Mayweather Jr. or Manny Pacquiao (before Top Rank took Pacquiao from HBO to Showtime).
The plan started off with a bang. Khan fought Maidana in December in a tremendous fight, which will be honored next week in Las Vegas at the annual Boxing Writers Association of America awards dinner as the 2010 fight of the year.
But then Bradley and Alexander met in January to unify their belts. Great idea on paper, but a horrendous stinker in the ring, exacerbated by an inexplicable guarantee by HBO to pay hefty fees for their next fights, win or lose.
Bradley-Alexander ended in an unsatisfying technical decision in a venue where it didn't belong -- the cavernous Silverdome in Pontiac, Mich., where few cared to come out on a bitterly cold and snowy night. Even if the weather had been great, Bradley and Alexander had no connection to the region. Co-promoters Gary Shaw and Don King took the fight there because Silverdome owner Andreas Apostolopoulous paid in the neighborhood of $600,000 to host the fight. Why? Who knows, but he did and the promoters took the money rather than try to cultivate an event in St. Louis, where Alexander is a good draw.
To top it off, the fight did a miserable rating, considering the $3 million or so HBO paid for it and all the marketing assets it put behind the fight. The public, largely unfamiliar with either guy, basically ignored it. I won't second-guess the making of the fight at all. You win some, you lose some. But the problem is that HBO remains on the hook to pay big money for the fighters' next bouts, which is an issue as it tries to lock down Bradley-Khan for the finale of the unofficial tournament.
Specifically, HBO wants to put on Bradley-Khan in another unification bout on July 23.
Khan easily won an interim bout April 16 against Paul McCloskey and worked out his deal with promoter Golden Boy to face Bradley. Golden Boy's Richard Schaefer and Shaw cut their deal, as well as one with HBO, which is willing to pay $3 million for the fight.
The last piece of the puzzle was for Shaw to come to terms with Bradley and his managers, Cameron Dunkin and Michael Miller. That's where it gets sticky and that's why it doesn't look like the fight will happen, unless something radically changes between Shaw and Team Bradley.
They disagree on the money, naturally, and if you know Dunkin and Shaw, that won't be easy to overcome. They get along about as well as Democrats and Republicans.
"I can't even get into it. It is not going well," Dunkin said to me about the talks on Wednesday. "That is all I'm gonna say."
I guess it's possible that HBO could throw more money at the fight to bridge the gap, but don't count on it; $3 million is already a huge number for the fight, especially when Khan-Bradley could end up like Bradley-Alexander: ugly in the ring (think Khan's sometimes-awkward style versus Bradley's penchant for head-butts) and without serious public demand.
Khan did a big crowd of about 17,000 in his native England for the McCloskey fight, but he's not yet that kind of draw in America, where the fight is supposed to take place (Las Vegas or Southern California).
Bradley is a non-entity when it comes to selling tickets in the United States -- another reason why his HBO fees are so out of whack with reality. He hasn't even been able to sell out a 2,000-seat ballroom in a casino minutes from his hometown of Palm Springs, Calif. (If Bradley-Khan actually does come off, it belongs in England, but that ain't happening.)
Shaw told me that Bradley and his managers rejected an offer of more than $1.3 million for the fight, which probably would generate somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.3 million (HBO money, gate, sponsors and foreign TV minus expenses). Dunkin confirmed the offer.
Bradley's number could rise depending on the variables of the revenues (other than the HBO money) because he and Shaw maintain an 80-20 split of the profit (80 percent to Bradley).
That's an enormous payday for Bradley, considering he has no real public profile and would be making about $200,000 more than he made to fight Alexander. Some might think Shaw should pay him more. Others might think Bradley is a fool to turn down that kind of money. But this is an important factor to consider: When HBO made Bradley-Alexander, each guy was guaranteed at least a $1.2 million fight in his return, win or lose.
Alexander's is June 25 against Lucas Matthysse. Bradley's is supposed to be against Khan. But here's the position of Bradley's team: Why not just take a $1.2 million fight against, theoretically, an easier opponent, instead of facing Khan for a few dollars more? That is not an unreasonable position.
According to Shaw, Bradley's deal with HBO had four pre-approved opponents for his first post-Alexander fight (win or lose): Alexander in a rematch at HBO's option (obviously not happening), Andre Berto (who lost his welterweight belt April 16 and is unavailable), Maidana (Golden Boy has other plans) and Khan.
Also, according to Shaw and Dunkin, Bradley's next fight is due to take place by June 30, which is when Bradley's deal with Shaw expires. Bradley was willing to put off the fight for an extra three weeks because HBO has no dates available before the end of June, but if he doesn't take the Khan fight, he may be waiting a lot longer. (Keep in mind, there aren't likely a whole lot of fans desperate to see Khan-Bradley right now, so if it doesn't happen, so be it.)
In that case, Khan would keep July 23 and fight somebody else. (I'd like to see titleholder Zab Judah get the call, especially now that it's unlikely Juan Manuel Marquez will accept an offer to face him July on HBO PPV on July 30.)
That would leave Bradley idle until at least September (HBO likely won't do a fight in August) and probably upset, because he was supposed to fight by June 30.
All of this could have been avoided had HBO not promised a return fight for a big fee to a guy with no ability to generate revenue outside of an arbitrary license fee. Without that crutch, the $1.3 million-plus to fight Khan probably would be looking pretty sweet to Bradley.
What we are seeing unfold right now is the downside of a bad business deal for Bradley-Alexander. It was a fight many of us wanted to see. But at what cost?
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