When Katsidis loses, he gets knocked out. By Casamayor, who was faded and not the hardest puncher and by Marquez, a natural 126 pounder. He was also outworked by Diaz.
Maidana probably punches than all three of those men. He also is a workrate guy when he gets going and doesn't seem to tire. He can take a decent shot, as well. Unless Katsidis can take his punch for a few rounds while he digs to the body, I don't see this one lasting long at all.
I'd go with four or five rounds if Katsidis doesn't work the body.
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