Tweet
From the outset this opinion will not be very popular considering the backlash from this fight. I completely understand the backlash. I also expect Manny Pacquiao to defeat Shane Mosley. The manner in witch it happens though is what I'm not sure about. People are expecting Shane to get blown out of the water and probably stopped at some point in the fight. While that is certainly possible I do think there are a couple of factors that could prevent things from playing out that way witch I will get into in a bit. Even if it were to end up being a blow out stoppage, that is what people are expecting so Shane has nothing to lose. If Shane were to lose this fight by decision and win lets say 3 or 4 rounds, he in essence raises his stock a bit. Thats better than what people thought he could do. Now lets get into the factors that may make this fight more competitive than some are expecting.
Speed. Shane is not as fast as Manny. However he is fast enough to get Manny's respect. At least early. As the fight goes I expect Shane to slow down a lot. Early he will be very dangerous though. This is important because Manny is so fast with hand speed and foot work that he has been able to hit guys and stay close without worrying too much about whats coming back. His opponents are so much slower than him that he can see whats coming at him with out worrying about getting caught badly. Even the shots that do land he sees coming. Clottey had decent hand speed but he barely threw(big surprise). I could be wrong but I don't expect to see Manny approach Mosley the same way as some of the other welters. At least not early. I think Manny will respect Shane's speed early and avoid danger more so than he normally does. Shane will still be in a tough spot though because of Manny's foot speed/work. I expect a lot of in and out but the combinations may be a little shorter to avoid danger.
Clinch. Shane is ridiculously strong. If (and this is a big if) he can find opportunities to use his physical strength in the clinch he may be able to at least be competitive for a while. He would have to accomplish this fairly early witch would be difficult in my opinion but not impossible. Manny sometimes plays on the ropes a little and that could present opportunities for Shane to close the distance and grapple him a bit. He did it early against Cotto but I have a feeling if it happens at all in this fight it will be later in the fight when Mosley may be less dangerous. If Shane is able to grapple Manny (easier said than done) he can at least use his physical strength and go to the body witch could make things interesting. Its also important because as many have pointed out we have not seen the spring in Shane's legs recently.
Brother Naazim Richardson. I am a fan of him in the corner (gotta love the motivational metaphors). Bigger than that though Naazim is damn good at coming up with a fight plan. The right hands that Mosley threw that buckled Mayweather early were no accident. When Floyd went into his shoulder roll Shane threw a light shot to the midsection with the purpose to only take Floyd's attention away from the right hand bomb to follow. Its an opportunity Naazim must have noticed while watching Floyd. Granted Floyd adjusted and won the fight, however Naazim found something that gave Shane a big opportunity. I'm sure he has similar observations about Pacquiao. Like Floyd I expect Manny to be able to overcome any early issues that Richardson's game plan may cause. Still though, we may see something interesting for a little while.
Again none of this is to say that Shane is going to win. Not even to say that it will be close. The point here is that Shane is in a decent situation. No one expects him to offer anything. Expectations are very low. If he is even somewhat competitive he has overachieved in the opinion of many. This makes this fight somewhat dangerous. Though its not the fight I ideally want, I will not boycott or turn my back on it. I am one of the very few that see the potential for a decent contest. Sure we probably all know the outcome already, however we may learn a thing or two about both guys before we get there.
Speed. Shane is not as fast as Manny. However he is fast enough to get Manny's respect. At least early. As the fight goes I expect Shane to slow down a lot. Early he will be very dangerous though. This is important because Manny is so fast with hand speed and foot work that he has been able to hit guys and stay close without worrying too much about whats coming back. His opponents are so much slower than him that he can see whats coming at him with out worrying about getting caught badly. Even the shots that do land he sees coming. Clottey had decent hand speed but he barely threw(big surprise). I could be wrong but I don't expect to see Manny approach Mosley the same way as some of the other welters. At least not early. I think Manny will respect Shane's speed early and avoid danger more so than he normally does. Shane will still be in a tough spot though because of Manny's foot speed/work. I expect a lot of in and out but the combinations may be a little shorter to avoid danger.
Clinch. Shane is ridiculously strong. If (and this is a big if) he can find opportunities to use his physical strength in the clinch he may be able to at least be competitive for a while. He would have to accomplish this fairly early witch would be difficult in my opinion but not impossible. Manny sometimes plays on the ropes a little and that could present opportunities for Shane to close the distance and grapple him a bit. He did it early against Cotto but I have a feeling if it happens at all in this fight it will be later in the fight when Mosley may be less dangerous. If Shane is able to grapple Manny (easier said than done) he can at least use his physical strength and go to the body witch could make things interesting. Its also important because as many have pointed out we have not seen the spring in Shane's legs recently.
Brother Naazim Richardson. I am a fan of him in the corner (gotta love the motivational metaphors). Bigger than that though Naazim is damn good at coming up with a fight plan. The right hands that Mosley threw that buckled Mayweather early were no accident. When Floyd went into his shoulder roll Shane threw a light shot to the midsection with the purpose to only take Floyd's attention away from the right hand bomb to follow. Its an opportunity Naazim must have noticed while watching Floyd. Granted Floyd adjusted and won the fight, however Naazim found something that gave Shane a big opportunity. I'm sure he has similar observations about Pacquiao. Like Floyd I expect Manny to be able to overcome any early issues that Richardson's game plan may cause. Still though, we may see something interesting for a little while.
Again none of this is to say that Shane is going to win. Not even to say that it will be close. The point here is that Shane is in a decent situation. No one expects him to offer anything. Expectations are very low. If he is even somewhat competitive he has overachieved in the opinion of many. This makes this fight somewhat dangerous. Though its not the fight I ideally want, I will not boycott or turn my back on it. I am one of the very few that see the potential for a decent contest. Sure we probably all know the outcome already, however we may learn a thing or two about both guys before we get there.
Comment