Khan/Maidana OVER 9.5 Rounds... a LOCK?!

[Kball15]

Right now the bet is at -115. So is the UNDER. so according to the oddsmakers this is a pick 'em bet.

This is why i disagree.

Maindana is a big puncher but Khan only got KO'd against Prescott because he rushed into the fight against a monster puncher. He was extremely tight and perhaps the big crowds he only VERY recently started to attract got the best of him.

1st round KO's usually prove NOTHING and shouldn't be taken very seriously, ESPECIALLY if the fighter is young and was blown away by more or less 1 punch.

Secondly, Khan is now trained by Freddie Roach, and ever since he has been a VERY patient, cautious boxer, who mixes it up in spurts.

The more cautious Khan is, the better the chance the fight goes over 9.5 rounds. Watch the Malignaggi fight. He NEVER let Malignaggi establish anything, moved very well around the ring, and beat the **** outta him, all while fighting super cautiously and patiently.

Maindana is a tough guy, and while he doesn't take the BEST punch in the world, I definitely believe he can take Khans best without too much trouble.

The problem with this bet, really, is A) the lucky one-punch KO from Maidana, which i have basically ruled out cause Maidana really isn't very good at fighting in general and Khan IS very good at boxing and moving. and B) a very realistic and possible accumulation of punishment stoppage.

I fully expect Khan to beat the **** out of Maidana. I dont give Miadana much of a chance to win the fight. Khan is a type of special talent, whether you like him or not, and once these types of fighters start to mature and come into their prime, they stop losing to guys like Maidana.

That said, if there IS an accumulation stoppage, i think it comes towards the very end of the fight, where Freddy will tell Khan that he's got a dead man in front of him and he should go for the stoppage.

I think OVER 9.5 rounds is a virtual LOCK. Maidana's power is overrated, Khans chin is Underrated. Those are my thoughts.

YOUR thoughts?

[Bierstadt]

Khan's chin is driving me nuts. That is the biggest variable in this fight. If we were to know for sure that the Prescott incident was a one-time deal (which we won't know until after this fight), then there would be no question that Khan would blow Maidana out of the water. But at this point that lucky punch from Marcos is still a big possibility, given that Khan's chin is suspect.

You arguments are very accurate, but as we have learned there is hardly ever a "Lock" in boxing betting. But this does seem like a pretty likely scenario. It's all up to Khan's chin now.

[_original_]

If you consider that mediocre fighter Prescott a "monster puncher" than WTF is Maidana? I hate how people brush that loss off as a fluke lost, it proved Khan has no chin what so ever....Khan is good, really good actually, but his lack of chin will only take him so far...he's fought nobody that punches half as hard as Maidana, I don't even know why you're bringing up feather fisted Paulie to compare him to Maidana

props to Khan though, because he's facing arguably the hardest style match up for him at 140...it'll be a great win for him if he somehow doesn't get his head knocked off

[βetamax]

It's possible, yes, but I don't consider it a lock. The problem is at 9.5 rounds it leaves very little room for a KO from either guy since that of course means the fight has to go 1:30 into the 10th round and we have a situation of guy with a questionable chin against probably the biggest puncher in the division. I don't expect this to be Khan-Prescott all over again as I like Khan to box and move and make things difficult for Maidana but I can't help but wonder if Khan can really avoid his bombs for the entire fight and not go down at some point.

The oddsmakers pretty much give Maidana zero chance at a decision as him winning by KO is almost the same as just a straight win. The odds for this fight just aren't very enticing as least in terms of being able to straddle.

[Kball15]

If you consider that mediocre fighter Prescott a "monster puncher" than WTF is Maidana? I hate how people brush that loss off as a fluke lost, it proved Khan has no chin what so ever....Khan is good, really good actually, but his lack of chin will only take him so far...he's fought nobody that punches half as hard as Maidana, I don't even know why you're bringing up feather fisted Paulie to compare him to Maidana

props to Khan though, because he's facing arguably the hardest style match up for him at 140...it'll be a great win for him if he somehow doesn't get his head knocked off

See, that Prescott loss DIDNT prove Khan had a bad chin.

When have we ever seen him badly hurt other then in that fight?

The prescott fight is literally the ONLY evidence we have that Khan has a bad chin, and it came in the first minute of the first round.

You can NEVER take that too seriously. Fighters, especially young ones, often come into the ring without warming up properly and are very tight. You can't take a punch if your tight.

Thats why the first few rounds are often disastrous for fighters, yet after they make it out of round 2 or 3, they end up going the full 12. Its the reason why Williams and Martinez both went down in round 1 of their first fight.

And i used Malignaggi fight as a way of showing how much Khan has matured and how patiently he fights now

[ATG Fighter]

See, that Prescott loss DIDNT prove Khan had a bad chin.

When have we ever seen him badly hurt other then in that fight?

The prescott fight is literally the ONLY evidence we have that Khan has a bad chin, and it came in the first minute of the first round.

Watch the Willie Limond fight. He was quite hurt there

[Phil Ivey]

Khan's chin is driving me nuts. That is the biggest variable in this fight. If we were to know for sure that the Prescott incident was a one-time deal (which we won't know until after this fight), then there would be no question that Khan would blow Maidana out of the water. But at this point that lucky punch from Marcos is still a big possibility, given that Khan's chin is suspect.

You arguments are very accurate, but as we have learned there is hardly ever a "Lock" in boxing betting. But this does seem like a pretty likely scenario. It's all up to Khan's chin now.

Not really, Khan's chin was highly questionable pre-Prescott, he was rocked hard by sub par fighters.

[βetamax]

Wasn't he wobbled against Barrera, too?

[Heru]

They aren't setting the line at -115 just because of Maidana, his punching power, and Khan's chin, it's there because of Khan too.

Khan isn't feather fisted, he's accurate, fast, and his output is around 60-70+ punches per round, Maidana doesn't have too good a defense and his chin isn't iron.

If Khan is hitting him almost at will, he can stop him inside of 9.5, especially if he becomes comfortable enough to sit on his punches. Far from a lock on the over.

[Bastian Loc]

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at.

Khan's chin underrated?

Maidana's power overrated?

Its a topsy turvy world you live in.