Comments Thread For: CompuBox Historical Punch Stats: Marquez vs Katsidis

[BIGPOPPAPUMP]

CompuBox takes a detailed punch stat review on tonight's lightweight title fight between WBA/WBO champion Juan Manuel Marquez of Mexico and mandatory Michael Katsidis of Australia. A comparison of stats, looking at twelve fights for Marquez and six fights for Katsidis. The fight takes place tonight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. HBO will televise.

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[Jimbo16031992]

How can Marquez have a higher connect % on jabs AND power punches, yet have a lower % overall, that's mathmatically impossible?!?!

[AnthrAxNSB]

How can Marquez have a higher connect % on jabs AND power punches, yet have a lower % overall, that's mathmatically impossible?!?!

It's because Katsidis throws such a high volume of power punches (at 39.3%) and a comparatively low volume of jabs (at 21.1%), whereas Marquez has a more balanced attack at similar percentages. Thus, Marquez's jabs at only 24.2% make a up a larger chunk of his overall output, and bring down his connect percentage.

It's easier to see with a more exaggerated example. Let's say Marquez throw 50 jabs a round and connected 11 times - that's connecting 22% of the time (slightly better than Katsidis). Let's say he also threw 2 power punches a round and connected 1 time - that's connecting 50% of the time (much better than Katsidis). His overall numbers, however, would be 12 out of 52, which yields a connect percentage of 23.1% (far worse than Katsidis's 34.9%). Why? Again, it's the relative volume of punches at the lower connect percentage.

[Gino Ros]

How can Marquez have a higher connect % on jabs AND power punches, yet have a lower % overall, that's mathmatically impossible?!?!

no it's not.

you take a weighted average, not a pure average.

Imagine if Kats only threw 1 jab per round and landed it, he would have 100% connect pct. But the mathematical impact to the total number would be negligible.

What IS surprising about these numbers is that Kats is viewed as an unskilled brawler (at least by me he is) yet his connect % is comparatively high.