How to bet on a fighter by Dwyer

[killacash]

Chapter 1: Eliminate Possible Outcomes.

Chapter 2: Don't be afraid to bet on Both Fighters.

Chapter 3: How to play a Matchup of Two Knockout Artist.

Chapter 4: What is a Fighter's Weakness and can the other Fighter Exploit?

Chapter 5: Research A Fighter's Worst Loss.

Chapter 6: Figure Out each Fighter's Optical Illusions.

Chapter 7: The Best Fighters to Bet on are the Fighter Who use Their opponents optical illusions to their advantage.

Chapter 8: What are the style of the Fighters and How do they impact distance?.

Chapter 9: Profit From Proposition Bets on Fights with Counterpunchers.

Chapter 10: Length, Hand speed, Movement and Volume Combination
Punching can beat Counterpunching.

Chapter 11: An Older Fighter who Feints alot can give a counterpuncher problems.

Chapter 12: Handling Rematches

Chapter 13: Playing different Weight Classes to your Advantage.

Chapter 14: Always fit fighters Can effectively move up in weight class.

Chapter 15: Always fit fighters can fight at an elite level late in their careers.

Chapter 16: Fighters who stay "Near Weight" between fights are almost always technically superior.

Chapter 17: Forget Nicknames.

Chapter 18: Spot Fighters in Decline.

Chapter 19: Take/Straddle Knockout Props Against Fighters Who Do not know how to Clinch when they are Fighting Elite Power Punchers.

[gingeralbino]

lol at forget nicknames!

[The Dreamer]

Chapter 4: What is a Fighter's Weakness and can the other Fighter Exploit?

Chapter 5: Research A Fighter's Worst Loss.

Chapter 10: Length, Hand speed, Movement and Volume Combination
Punching can beat Counterpunching.

Makes picking a winner for Khan-Maidana a bit tough

[killacash]

Chapter 1: Eliminate Possible Outcomes

My starting point is to eliminate possible outcomes so that I can focus my time and money on what is likely to happen in the fight. You dont want to pay for outcomes that you do not believe have a reasonable likelihood of taking place. Simple picking a winner in the fight is a bet on variety of outcomes: that your fighter will win by knockout, or decision.

To increase your return, dont pay for things that are not going to happen. Picking a soft hitting nonknockout puncher like Paulie Malignaggi(no knockouts over the last five years) to simply win leaves you paying for him to win by knockout and decision. Be more focused and simply pick Malignaggi to win by decision. You'll get better odds and you'll eliminate an outcome that isnt going to happen.

This is done by reviewing carefully each fighter's record and the outcomes of their past fights.

Look for Blueprints.

The internet is an excellent place to research a fighters background A site I often use to do so is boxrec.com

You should also "Google" the fighter's controversial fights (fights in which the fighter was knocked down, beaten badly, robbed of a decision, or given a gift decision.) You should find out the fighter's explanation as to why his performance suffered and the changes he is made to correct the problem.

In addition - and this is important - you should find out what the opponent and his corner had to say as to the strengths and weaknesses of the fighter after the fight has taken place.

For example, after the Bernard Hopkin's victory over Felix Trinidad, Hopkins told interviewers that his strategy was to "smother" Trinidad's Left hand and tat the blueprint for beating Trinidad had been laid out in Trinidad's earlier "Oscar De La Hoya" fight. Hopkins also commented upon how Trinidad fell for many of his feints.

A review of the earlier Trinidad v. Oscar De La Hoya fight showed Oscar also protecting himself from Trinidad's left hand, using foot movement to keep a robotic Trinidad off balance, and counterpunching Trinidad successfully for most of the fight. At the conclusion of the fight, Oscar De La Hoya was clearly annoyed to hear that he had lost the fight since he believed he had dominated the action, De La Hoya thought he as so far ahead that he admitted to giving away the last three rounds of the fight to protect his lead. Oscar told a reporter that he thought he had given Felix Trinidad "a boxing lesson."

From a review of the statements, smart gamblers understood that
1. Trinidad was too reliant on his left hand;
2. Trinidad's had holes in his game that was apparent to elite fighters like Oscar De La Hoya and Bernard Hopkins, neither of whom was ever in significant trouble against him;
3. Trinidad had problems dealing with an opponent's foot movement;
4. Trinidad could be successfully counterpunched by a counterpuncher as he was robotic and predictable.

[killacash]

Accordingly, when Felix Trinidad signed to fight Winky Wright -- and elite counterpuncher known for his elite defense and strategy -- smart gamblers should have known that Felix Trinidad was going to have trouble against such a savvy opponent. Casual fans - who always overvalue charismatic knockout punchers - made Trinidad the favorite in the fight. The pre-fight hype focused on Trinidad's idol status in Puerto Rico and his devastating knockouts in the past.

Smart gamblers who did their internet research on the Oscar De La Hoya and Bernard Hopkins fights knew that Felix Trinidad was not as good as the public believed. In fact, Felix Trinidad's foot work was so bad that an elite fighter could look at Trinidad's knees to determine if he was ready to throw a punch.
As Trinidad walked forward, e would put pressure on his front leg. Oscar De La Hoya exposed the fact that Trinidad could not throw a power punch when he had already put pressure on his front leg while walking forward. It was at those moments that Oscar DeLa Hoya was successful in landing numerous combinations against him.

The Oscar De LA Hoya tape is the blueprint on how to beat Felix Trinidad. Winky Wright followed that blueprint and practically threw a shutout against Trinidad, winning every round. And he did so in a fight in which he was the betting underdog.

Had you done your research, you would of know that Trinidad's flaws made him vulnerable to an elite counterpuncher like Winky Wright - as Trinidad had lost earlier to a counterpuncher Bernard Hopkins and had escaped with a narrow decision over counterpuncher Oscar De La Hoya.

You would have also known that despite Trinidad's tremendous knockout ratio, there was a distinct possibility that the fight was going to go the distance. After all, Trinidad's relatively recent fights against Oscar De La Hoya and Bernard Hopkins both went the distance. Moreover, he was fighting a fighter in Winky Wright who was known to be a defensive genius, and who had never been knocked out.