Structuring The Bet 1 - Klitschko/Peter

[Who are you?]

Lets talk about boxing, in fact, lets talk about how to make yourself some money betting on boxing.

This is my first thread in which I will give betting advice. To just to give you some background as to who I am. I am a fulltime University Student, parttime worker. I have been following boxing as a diehard fan for over 10 years. I'd say by now, I have more than a solid understanding of the game. I have also been ******** on boxing for over 1 year, and I have tripled my money in that time.



So lets get right to it (these are 5Dimes lines as of Sunday Morning, 10 AM EST).

- Wladimir Klitschko is a -1200 Favourite to win the fight
- Sam Peter is going at +775 to win the fight

Some more interesting lines include:

- Wladimir to win a decision +217
- Wladimir to win inside the distance -185
- The fight to go over 9.5 rounds +100

Now lets talk about how to structure your bet in such a way that you make some money on this fight. With -1200 odds, I don't recommend a straight wager on Klitschko. Its not good value, and there is small risk associated with this fight in Peter pulling off an upset. I am confident that Wlad will win, but because of his power, Peter is always a live underdog.

I believe this fight is going over 9.5 rounds. In fact, I believe the most likely outcome in this fight is either a Klitchko late KO or a Klitschko decision win. Even money on the fight going over 9.5 rounds is extremely good value, I am recommending to bet on that. Wlad is a very cautious fighter, Peter is a strong guy. If a KO is coming its happening later rather than sooner. As insurance, I am recommending laying some money down on Wlad inside the distance. This insures yourself against an earlier KO win, and your losses are minimized. It also serves as a bonus in the even of a later KO.



Supposing $100, I would structure the bet as follows:

- $75 Wager on Over 9.5 Rounds (If Won is a Payout of $75)
- $25 Wager on Klitschko Inside Distance (If Won is a Payout of $13.50)

I firmly believe this fight is going over 9.5 rounds, in fact I think there's a good chance the fight is going the entire distance, the $25 Wager serves as a small form of insurance in case I am wrong and the fight is stopped earlier.

[Who are you?]

Let me know what you think!

[rzagza]

I think...you're a novice.

You stand to make very little to no $ with that betting strategy. And why would you place a "hedge" wager to get a return of $13 when your original base bet is $75? How is that even a hedge? Say Peter doesnt get off his stool for the start of Rd 10, you win the $13 ITD bet but lose $75 on the over prop and come out $59 down.

The way to play this fight is....Klitschko in Rounds 7-12, at +170 hedged with a Klitschko DEC at +217.

Do you really believe Wlad is knocking him out in Rd 6 or earlier? I do not. In fact, I believe Peter will quit on his stool later in the fight if we do have a stoppage. As long as the fight goes 7 rounds, you win $.

I would actually wait on the Klit by Unanimous Dec prop to come out for this hedge. Those odds will be around +260, rather than +217, making this hedge a better option. Klit will be up on all 3 cards, no doubt, if this thing goes 12.

[Who are you?]

You bring up valid points,

But I also consider Sam Peter a live underdog in this fight. Wlad has been chinny in the past. Peter rocked him on several occasions in the first fight. I think a Peter KO win is not "out of the question".

Peter is a live underdog IMO, and even for Peter if a KO comes I believe its happening after round 9.

So, what Im saying is, you bring up good points, but you're totally dismissing Peter and dont forget what happened in the first fight and Peter has the style to trouble Wlad.

[Who are you?]

The reason I prefer my wager is because I believe the most likely outcome in this fight is either Wlad Dec 12, or Wlad KO past round 9.

Having said that, Im not ruling out Sam Peter by KO, and if that happens, once again, I think its happening later in the fight than sooner. The over/under doesnt discriminate omn who wins, and thats why I prefer it.

Excellent points you make, though.

[rzagza]

Peter is a bit faded now. At the time of the first fight he was at his peak, and Wlad was a bit uncertain.

Vitali laid down the blueprint for Wlad in how to attack this version of Peter. He will employ the same gameplan. Let's see if Peter can withstand the pounding and has the stamina to finish the fight.

Wlad will fight at a safer distance than the first fight. Pawing away with that lead jab, bagging rounds.

The decision prop is now +250, which is much better for the hedge I recommended. Peter's not winning the fight. Just do Wlad in 7-12 with Wlad by DEC. It will work out for you better than your proposed wager.

[REMOVED SHARK 97]

Okay thanks, Dwyer.