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COMPUBOX ANALYSIS
MIGUEL COTTO vs. RANDALL BAILEY
Cotto, 21-0, 17 ko’s, a huge favorite vs. former champ Bailey, who’s got 28 wins- 27 by ko, but he’s just 3-3 in his last 6 fights.
Cotto was absolutely devastating in his last outing, a sixth round destruction of his amateur nemesis Kelson Pinto. Cotto never let the six-foot Pinto into the fight. He outlanded the previously undefeated Pinto (20-0, 18 ko’s) 29-11 in round one, landing 20 of 41 power shots. Pinto managed just 6 connects in round two, as Cotto landed 22 of 42 total punches. Cotto repeatedly scored with left hooks to the head and body. After six rounds, Cotto had a 121-43 edge in connects and his first world title. Cotto was as impressive defensively as he was with his offense. Pinto landed just 11% of his total punches.
Cotto gained valuable experience vs. late sub Lovemore Ndou (W 12), who came on in the late rounds vs. the visibly-tired Cotto. The iron-chinned Ndou made Cotto fight, and Cotto responded by averaging 63 punches per round (the junior welterweight avg. is 63 per round), landing 26%. Cotto also averaged 21 jabs per round. Ndou, who was forced to hold a training session in his Atlantic City hotel room prior to his challenge of Sharmba Mitchell in February (L 12), averaged 50 punches per round vs. Cotto, landing 23%. He also landed 35% of his power punches and won three of the last four rounds on one judge’s scorecard. Ndou nearly matched Cotto connect for connect in the last five rounds, as Cotto had just a 106-90 edge and a slim 89-74 advantage in power connects over the last five frames. The fatigued Cotto did close the show by landing 28 of 90 total punches in round 12, his high total for the fight in both departments. Ndou responded by landing 24 power shots in round 12-the most landed vs. Cotto in nine fights tracked by CompuBox.
Prior to Ndou, Cotto took apart Victoriano Sosa in less than four rounds. Cotto landed 38% of the 62 punches he threw per round. He also averaged 25 jabs per round vs. Sosa, whose best work was done at 135-lbs. Sosa lost a lopsided decision to Floyd Mayweather in April of 2003 and was thisclose to stopping Paul Spadafora before losing a decision in March of 2000.
As for Bailey- he swings for the fences with every punch-when he punches. He averaged just 31 per round in his loss (L 12) to the 14-0 Ishe Smith eleven months ago. He was down in round two and landed just 39 power punches all night, attempting just 117. Smith landed 37% of his power shots.
Bailey scored a spectacular one-punch ko win over Demetrio Ceballos in February of 2002 to win a version of the 140-lb title. He averaged just 29 punches per round.
In a wild slugfest, he lost the title in his first defense, vs. Diosbelys Hurtado. He was down and badly hurt in round two, then rallied to drop Hurtado in the sixth. A series of body shots put Bailey down for the count the next round. He averaged just 29 punches per round, landing 44% of his power shots. Hurtado landed 48% of his power shots.
In his 12-round split decision loss to Ener Julio in July of 2000, Bailey averaged 35 punches per round. He was down in round one, then dropped Julio in rounds six and nine. He was outlanded 160-111, as he right eye was hideously swollen shut after 12 rounds.
This is a matchup of fighter’s heading in different directions. Cotto’s getting better with every fight and will carry more confidence into the ring after winning his first world title. If there’s ever a fighter with just a “puncher’s chance” it’s Bailey. Not likely, Cotto is dangerous offensively and he can play some “D” as well. Cotto, by ko, inside 6 rounds.
MIGUEL COTTO vs. RANDALL BAILEY
Cotto, 21-0, 17 ko’s, a huge favorite vs. former champ Bailey, who’s got 28 wins- 27 by ko, but he’s just 3-3 in his last 6 fights.
Cotto was absolutely devastating in his last outing, a sixth round destruction of his amateur nemesis Kelson Pinto. Cotto never let the six-foot Pinto into the fight. He outlanded the previously undefeated Pinto (20-0, 18 ko’s) 29-11 in round one, landing 20 of 41 power shots. Pinto managed just 6 connects in round two, as Cotto landed 22 of 42 total punches. Cotto repeatedly scored with left hooks to the head and body. After six rounds, Cotto had a 121-43 edge in connects and his first world title. Cotto was as impressive defensively as he was with his offense. Pinto landed just 11% of his total punches.
Cotto gained valuable experience vs. late sub Lovemore Ndou (W 12), who came on in the late rounds vs. the visibly-tired Cotto. The iron-chinned Ndou made Cotto fight, and Cotto responded by averaging 63 punches per round (the junior welterweight avg. is 63 per round), landing 26%. Cotto also averaged 21 jabs per round. Ndou, who was forced to hold a training session in his Atlantic City hotel room prior to his challenge of Sharmba Mitchell in February (L 12), averaged 50 punches per round vs. Cotto, landing 23%. He also landed 35% of his power punches and won three of the last four rounds on one judge’s scorecard. Ndou nearly matched Cotto connect for connect in the last five rounds, as Cotto had just a 106-90 edge and a slim 89-74 advantage in power connects over the last five frames. The fatigued Cotto did close the show by landing 28 of 90 total punches in round 12, his high total for the fight in both departments. Ndou responded by landing 24 power shots in round 12-the most landed vs. Cotto in nine fights tracked by CompuBox.
Prior to Ndou, Cotto took apart Victoriano Sosa in less than four rounds. Cotto landed 38% of the 62 punches he threw per round. He also averaged 25 jabs per round vs. Sosa, whose best work was done at 135-lbs. Sosa lost a lopsided decision to Floyd Mayweather in April of 2003 and was thisclose to stopping Paul Spadafora before losing a decision in March of 2000.
As for Bailey- he swings for the fences with every punch-when he punches. He averaged just 31 per round in his loss (L 12) to the 14-0 Ishe Smith eleven months ago. He was down in round two and landed just 39 power punches all night, attempting just 117. Smith landed 37% of his power shots.
Bailey scored a spectacular one-punch ko win over Demetrio Ceballos in February of 2002 to win a version of the 140-lb title. He averaged just 29 punches per round.
In a wild slugfest, he lost the title in his first defense, vs. Diosbelys Hurtado. He was down and badly hurt in round two, then rallied to drop Hurtado in the sixth. A series of body shots put Bailey down for the count the next round. He averaged just 29 punches per round, landing 44% of his power shots. Hurtado landed 48% of his power shots.
In his 12-round split decision loss to Ener Julio in July of 2000, Bailey averaged 35 punches per round. He was down in round one, then dropped Julio in rounds six and nine. He was outlanded 160-111, as he right eye was hideously swollen shut after 12 rounds.
This is a matchup of fighter’s heading in different directions. Cotto’s getting better with every fight and will carry more confidence into the ring after winning his first world title. If there’s ever a fighter with just a “puncher’s chance” it’s Bailey. Not likely, Cotto is dangerous offensively and he can play some “D” as well. Cotto, by ko, inside 6 rounds.
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