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Saturday, June 5, 2010
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
HBO at 9:00 pm-EST
WBA Light Middleweight Title: 12 Rounds
Miguel Cotto, 34-2 (27 KO’s), Caguas, Puerto Rico.
Vs.
Yuri Foreman, 28-0 (8 KOs), Brooklyn, NY/Israel, WBA World Light Middleweight Champion.
Fight Odds: Miguel Cotto (-250), Yuri Foreman (+180)
Preview: Boxing returns to Yankee Stadium (even though it’s not the original) when Miguel Cotto challenges Yuri Foreman for his WBA 154 lb. title. This is reminiscent of the great ethnic matchups that once made NYC the hottest boxing town. Cotto receives tremendous NYC support from his boxing-crazed Puerto Rican fans, while Foreman is Belarusian *** from Israel, now living in Brooklyn. On the weekend of the Puerto Rican Day Parade in NYC, the pro-Cotto throngs will be rabid in their support.
At root, you have a fighter on the way down (Cotto) against a rising talent (Foreman) and now let’s see if we can pick it right. It’s strange that Foreman is actually older than Cotto, but their careers have taken drastically different trajectories. Foreman was almost invisible during his career, operating anonymously almost. A few years ago, we began seeing him score a few wins to suggest he might be a genuine prospect. His November win over talented but inconsistent titleholder Daniel Santos was eye opening. The aspiring rabbi was cat-quick and appeared to be supremely crafty and confident.
Cotto is not the force of old. How can he be? Look at his schedule and whom he has fought. Ever since coming onto the world stage almost a decade ago, he has fought one tough opponent after the next. His record reads like a who’s-who in the 140 and 147lb. classes over the past ten years. For the most part, he has been successful, but his two losses to Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao were the type of losses that take a lot out of a fighter. Combine that with all those tough fights that he won and he just isn’t the same guy.
But how over the hill is he? I don’t think he’s that far past his peak. Even an 85% Cotto represents a serious threat to Yuri Foreman. Cotto has scaled heights that Foreman will most likely never see in his career. It is a leap-of-faith to assume Cotto can still fight in a way resembling his former status, but he didn’t look all that bad against Pacquiao in his last fight. He managed to somewhat batter the Filipino legend, but eventually fell apart to the dynamic Pacquiao attack. No shame in that.
Prediction: There are some red flags that could dissuade Cotto backers. He’s getting to the end of his career, as he announced he would only be fighting another time or two. This is usually not a good sign. Cotto is already mentally getting out of the game, while Foreman is hungry to make his presence felt. Cotto is also moving up in weight. He was a small welterweight; therefore Foreman’s size could give him problems. In addition, Cotto is fighting a quick fighter, just the kind of fighter that could give hell to an older fighter with diminished reflexes.
I’m going to simply go with this notion: Cotto is a better fighter. There’s a reason why Cotto was fighting the PPV blockbusters while Foreman was fighting in the little rooms. The gap has been significantly bridged, but I’m thinking Cotto has enough left for Foreman. It’s not easy to get a decision against Cotto in NYC. Cotto will win a close decision.
Bet: Lay the –250 on Miguel Cotto to win.
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