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Breaking down Pacquiao-Cotto
November 10, 2009 03:14 PM | Posted by Chris Iorfida Comments0Recommend1
The wait is nearly over for biggest fight of the year, Manny Pacquiao against Miguel Cotto in a 145-pound bout in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Both usually bring power and excitement, and neither goes into a defensive shell like the man the winner could very well face in 2010, Floyd Mayweather.
I'm hard-pressed to remember a major fight in which the smaller and older fighter is favoured to the degree Pacquiao is.
Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs), opened at around 2-to-1 and those odds have been moving upwards. It is a reflection of the Filipino star's dominant victories recently over Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton, and the su****ion among many that Cotto is a spent force after grueling fights against Antonio Margarito and Joshua Clottey in the past 18 months.
But Pacquiao isn't Clottey or Margarito (he's better, but very different stylewise) and Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) is definitely better and different than both Hatton and the 2008 version of De La Hoya.
This figures to be a tough and exciting fight, and there's many things to like about both men.
In Pacquiao's corner
Pacquiao has the more eye-popping power, and has knocked down every well-known fighter he's faced, save De La Hoya, who was surely headed to the ground had he not submitted on his stool.
It is the hand and foot speed that Pacquiao brings to the table with his southpaw style that has many experts picking him. He has the ability to pop in and do damage and then get out of range before a response.
Pacquiao appears to have the prohibitive corner advantage. He and Freddie Roach have a deep bond and Roach has been able to add on to Pacquiao's already sizable list of assets, while Cotto is in his first year with 31-year-old trainer Joe Santiago.
Pacquiao has never been knocked down in recent years against a fleet of top-flight champions.
Cotto has taken a great deal of punishment within the last year-and-a-half to Margarito and Clottey.
Cotto's been dropped and wobbled in the past by lesser fighters than Pacquiao.
While Manny throws from a number of angles and is fluid, the slower Cotto is generally a north-south fighter who needs to be set to unleash his punches.
The Pacquiao camp extracted a concession, that the fight take place at 145 pounds, two shy of the welter limit. Cotto, who walks around at 160ish, has weighed at least 146 in all nine of his fights at welter.
In Cotto's corner
Cotto's faced bigger guys who possess both speed and power before - Zab Judah and Shane Mosley - and survived those tests.
Cotto has heavier hands than most fighters Pacquiao has faced, particularly to the body, having doubled over legitimate welterweights.
Pacquiao has never taken the power shots of a full-fledged welterweight - De La Hoya barely landed anything and drained himself at the scales. Pacman will get a chin check on Saturday (and to the body) and will need to pass those tests.
Cotto has struggled with Margarito and Clottey it's true, but both are big welterweights, and neither has a style similar to Pacquaio.
Pacquiao hasn't faced a single guy in the last three years with any semblance of foot speed, and the only ones with decent foot movement, Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales, gave him a fair amount of trouble. Cotto's no speedster, but he used good foot movement well at certain points in the Mosley and Margarito bouts.
It was easy to miss before the awesome KO, but Pacquiao reverted back to some old bad habits against Hatton, lunging in wildly and leaving his head up during a couple of exchanges late in the first and early in the second. Hatton was too addled to take advantage, but Cotto could.
Cotto's been dropped and shaken in his bouts, but his chin has appeared stronger at 147 since not having to shrink down to 140. The Margarito knockdowns were the culmination of a beatdown, not an indictment of Cotto's chin.
Save the second Morales fight, in which he was trailing over the first half, Pacquiao hasn't been the best at making in-fight adjustments. He often doesn't have to, but there are many who believe he never did find a consistent answer to Marquez, eking out disputed wins on the basis of early knockdowns.
The Pick
In one sense this is an easy fight to pick, in that as long as you're not stretching and picking either guy by an easy blowout, you're on safe ground. But who will emerge is a tougher call, in my eyes, than the oddsmakers have it.
I've seen shot fighters. Cotto is not Fernando Vargas. He's a guy who was leading on the cards against Margarito (months later found with plaster on his hands) and overcame a nasty cut against Clottey, a tough out for anyone.
Really good fighters usually have a second act, and redemption is a helluva motivator. Even if he doesn't win, I expect Cotto to perform admirably on Saturday to restore some of his lustre.
There's been a lot of talk in recent days of how awful Cotto was against Clottey, but most observers conveniently leave out the fact that he planted the really strong welterweight on his butt with a jab. Also, he was never even really close to hitting the deck against a heavy-handed guy.
I believe Pacquiao will establish a lead on the scorecards. Actually, he kind of has to. If Cotto shows early on that speed of Pacquiao's punches is more of a hindrance than their impact, that will be a huge moral victory. Conversely, the Puerto Rican has started big fights slowly before (most notably against Judah) and not gotten rattled.
I have a hard time swallowing this belief that Pacquiao is just going to blast out Cotto. Manny's scored a lot of knockdowns, but other than face-first Hatton, even at lighter weights the likes of Marquez, Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera heard the final bell.
You can also make the case in the two Marquez fights and the first Morales fight that it was they and not Pacquiao who dug deeper in the late going.
Pacquiao is awesome but he's not invincible. Morales had his number over a span of 18 rounds with a mix of foot movement, power shots, and the jab. Morales threw 300 jabs in that bout and landed nearly a third, helping to get Pacquiao out of a rhythm.
Contrary to what many believe, I don't expect Cotto only to impose his bigger frame in the trenches and along the ropes. I think he's going to try and show some of what he did in the first half against Margarito.
The longer this fight goes, the more I like the effect of Cotto's straighter and more contained punches to the head, arms and body. Cotto by decision or late stoppage.
November 10, 2009 03:14 PM | Posted by Chris Iorfida Comments0Recommend1
The wait is nearly over for biggest fight of the year, Manny Pacquiao against Miguel Cotto in a 145-pound bout in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Both usually bring power and excitement, and neither goes into a defensive shell like the man the winner could very well face in 2010, Floyd Mayweather.
I'm hard-pressed to remember a major fight in which the smaller and older fighter is favoured to the degree Pacquiao is.
Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs), opened at around 2-to-1 and those odds have been moving upwards. It is a reflection of the Filipino star's dominant victories recently over Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton, and the su****ion among many that Cotto is a spent force after grueling fights against Antonio Margarito and Joshua Clottey in the past 18 months.
But Pacquiao isn't Clottey or Margarito (he's better, but very different stylewise) and Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) is definitely better and different than both Hatton and the 2008 version of De La Hoya.
This figures to be a tough and exciting fight, and there's many things to like about both men.
In Pacquiao's corner
Pacquiao has the more eye-popping power, and has knocked down every well-known fighter he's faced, save De La Hoya, who was surely headed to the ground had he not submitted on his stool.
It is the hand and foot speed that Pacquiao brings to the table with his southpaw style that has many experts picking him. He has the ability to pop in and do damage and then get out of range before a response.
Pacquiao appears to have the prohibitive corner advantage. He and Freddie Roach have a deep bond and Roach has been able to add on to Pacquiao's already sizable list of assets, while Cotto is in his first year with 31-year-old trainer Joe Santiago.
Pacquiao has never been knocked down in recent years against a fleet of top-flight champions.
Cotto has taken a great deal of punishment within the last year-and-a-half to Margarito and Clottey.
Cotto's been dropped and wobbled in the past by lesser fighters than Pacquiao.
While Manny throws from a number of angles and is fluid, the slower Cotto is generally a north-south fighter who needs to be set to unleash his punches.
The Pacquiao camp extracted a concession, that the fight take place at 145 pounds, two shy of the welter limit. Cotto, who walks around at 160ish, has weighed at least 146 in all nine of his fights at welter.
In Cotto's corner
Cotto's faced bigger guys who possess both speed and power before - Zab Judah and Shane Mosley - and survived those tests.
Cotto has heavier hands than most fighters Pacquiao has faced, particularly to the body, having doubled over legitimate welterweights.
Pacquiao has never taken the power shots of a full-fledged welterweight - De La Hoya barely landed anything and drained himself at the scales. Pacman will get a chin check on Saturday (and to the body) and will need to pass those tests.
Cotto has struggled with Margarito and Clottey it's true, but both are big welterweights, and neither has a style similar to Pacquaio.
Pacquiao hasn't faced a single guy in the last three years with any semblance of foot speed, and the only ones with decent foot movement, Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales, gave him a fair amount of trouble. Cotto's no speedster, but he used good foot movement well at certain points in the Mosley and Margarito bouts.
It was easy to miss before the awesome KO, but Pacquiao reverted back to some old bad habits against Hatton, lunging in wildly and leaving his head up during a couple of exchanges late in the first and early in the second. Hatton was too addled to take advantage, but Cotto could.
Cotto's been dropped and shaken in his bouts, but his chin has appeared stronger at 147 since not having to shrink down to 140. The Margarito knockdowns were the culmination of a beatdown, not an indictment of Cotto's chin.
Save the second Morales fight, in which he was trailing over the first half, Pacquiao hasn't been the best at making in-fight adjustments. He often doesn't have to, but there are many who believe he never did find a consistent answer to Marquez, eking out disputed wins on the basis of early knockdowns.
The Pick
In one sense this is an easy fight to pick, in that as long as you're not stretching and picking either guy by an easy blowout, you're on safe ground. But who will emerge is a tougher call, in my eyes, than the oddsmakers have it.
I've seen shot fighters. Cotto is not Fernando Vargas. He's a guy who was leading on the cards against Margarito (months later found with plaster on his hands) and overcame a nasty cut against Clottey, a tough out for anyone.
Really good fighters usually have a second act, and redemption is a helluva motivator. Even if he doesn't win, I expect Cotto to perform admirably on Saturday to restore some of his lustre.
There's been a lot of talk in recent days of how awful Cotto was against Clottey, but most observers conveniently leave out the fact that he planted the really strong welterweight on his butt with a jab. Also, he was never even really close to hitting the deck against a heavy-handed guy.
I believe Pacquiao will establish a lead on the scorecards. Actually, he kind of has to. If Cotto shows early on that speed of Pacquiao's punches is more of a hindrance than their impact, that will be a huge moral victory. Conversely, the Puerto Rican has started big fights slowly before (most notably against Judah) and not gotten rattled.
I have a hard time swallowing this belief that Pacquiao is just going to blast out Cotto. Manny's scored a lot of knockdowns, but other than face-first Hatton, even at lighter weights the likes of Marquez, Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera heard the final bell.
You can also make the case in the two Marquez fights and the first Morales fight that it was they and not Pacquiao who dug deeper in the late going.
Pacquiao is awesome but he's not invincible. Morales had his number over a span of 18 rounds with a mix of foot movement, power shots, and the jab. Morales threw 300 jabs in that bout and landed nearly a third, helping to get Pacquiao out of a rhythm.
Contrary to what many believe, I don't expect Cotto only to impose his bigger frame in the trenches and along the ropes. I think he's going to try and show some of what he did in the first half against Margarito.
The longer this fight goes, the more I like the effect of Cotto's straighter and more contained punches to the head, arms and body. Cotto by decision or late stoppage.