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Originally posted by KrisSilver
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1. I'm not going to say that because Manny got KO'd by a body shot very early in his career that he's prone to be KO'd by a body shot. I believe everyone can be KO'd or at least hurt badly by a body shot. Its just a matter of getting hit that the right time, in the right spot. Cotto is easily one of the best if not THE best body puncher in boxing, and I feel will take its toll on Manny's stamina in this fight. I'm not saying that Manny will just turn into mush, however, I do think it will slow Manny down the longer the fight goes.
While I said Manny isn't prone to being KO'd by a body shot, I do think he is open to them which is one of the two main reasons I have Cotto winning. Manny loves to keep his hands very high when he's blocking his face, his body is just wide open. Sure he has a lot of movement but if he's being backed up by Cotto he won't have the type of movement and "bounciness" he showed in the DLH fight.
2. Manny likes to get into trading punches, I don't want to call it a weakness because it isn't. The guy fights back when he's in trouble or gets hit with a solid punch, which is what makes him a great fighter. The problem with it is that is what Cotto likes to do as well and at 145 I trust Cotto's chin a lot more than I trust Manny's. Manny can be rocked, Marquez and Morales showed but those guys are no where the power that Cotto brings to the table. Sure, you can say Manny was never hurt by DLH or Hatton, but he was never really hit in those fights. The only meaningful punch I remember in either of those fights was a right hook to the body by Oscar and that was the one time he was able to get Manny's back on the ropes. Essentially what I'm trying to say is that if Cotto can get Manny to fight him, which I'm sure he will, I'll take Cotto because of the power and the... untested chin of Manny, at this high a weight.
3. Cotto's jab may be the weapon to neutralize Manny's movement. Its not a typical jab in the sense that it can be thrown non-stop and doesn't do a lot of damage. However, he has so much power in it and his timing is spot on with it I think it could off-set any speed advantage Manny may have.
I'm not saying Cotto is going to dominate the fight, and I'm certainly not saying Manny can't win. I don't see the fight quite at 50/50, 55-45 giving the edge to Cotto. It also isn't so much because of what Cotto can do but more along the lines of that Manny isn't the type of fighter that Cotto is particularly weak against. Manny certainly won't be able to pressure Cotto like Margarito and he isn't a big guy like Clottey that could remind Cotto of the Margarito fight. Manny doesn't throw the uppercut much either, which is easily Cotto's biggest weakness in terms of punches he gets hit with. However, Cotto is prone to hits in between the gloves and Manny's left is exactly that type of punch. I also fear that cut Cotto received in the Clottey fight could easily open up again with all those lefts that WILL land from Manny.
I see it being a close fight, Manny landing a lot of punches on Cotto but I see the body work slowly taking its toll on Manny and Cotto returning to his old self and really hammering down his opponent in the later rounds.
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