My take on Williams-Wright

[Fox McCloud]

Wright loses a 9-3 or 8-4 decision to Williams based on the following factors:

1. Wright is old, and is losing his skill as every day goes by.
2. Wright has had a massive layoff, and those skills don't stay fresh with each day that you don't box, so I expect that he will be rusty.
3. Wright's defense has shown significant diminishment since the Trinidad masterpiece. He struggled against Soliman, Taylor and Hopkins, getting hit with punches that were custom made for his guard (Taylor specifically... Taylor scored by punching through the guard, something that had no previously been done).
4. Wright's worst outings have always been against volume punchers. In his fights against Vargas, Hernandez and Soliman, he struggled because he was not able to keep up in level of activity. Vargas ran over him in the rounds he won by just throwing so many more punches... if you throw more, more land. Hernandez is an average fighter who did very well (much better than he should have) against Wright, because of the amount of punches he threw. Soliman did his whirlwind gig, and it won him a lot of rounds, because Wright spent so much time with his guard up that he was not spending enough time throwing back in order to sweep the amount of rounds he should have won against an opponent of this caliber.
5. Williams is, by far, the most active fighter that Wright has ever faced, and he is easily the best volume puncher he has faced (you could make the argument that Vargas and Taylor are better, but they were fighting out of their natural gameplan, Williams will be naturally throwing thousands of punches).
6. Williams goes to the body (as shown in the Phillips fight), and Wright doesn't enough, which means that Williams keeps throwing a zillion punches and Wright throws less and less.
7. Wright thrives on when his opponent stops to throw his counterpunches (rather than throwing over the punch or whatever) and Williams rarely stops.

All of those reasons are why I have a really, REALLY bad feeling about this fight.

[Harold Lederman]

I see this as a 65-35 chance in favor of Williams.

Why? Wright is not young, add in a long layoff as you already stated and Williams is just too active.

BUT - PLEASE DO NOT COUNT OUT: Wright is MORE experienced. Wright has always had good boxing skill. Wright won't be completely oversized in this fight. Williams fought at 160 before but only in one round, can Williams bring his workrate for a STRONG 12 rounds? Can Williams adjust to Wright if Wright all the sudden bring is A-game? I don't think people should count Wright out just as they have been but I see why. I got Williams with him pulling a decision cause of early rounds and some late stretch in the late ones.

[Pico Hollywood]

i'm not buying into the excitement of this fight its going to be a bore fest and then people on here are going to talk about how black fighters are boring...

[Silencers]

Or Wright's jab neutralizes everything Williams tries to do.

And no, Williams won't be the most active fighter Wright has faced, I doubt he can top Harry Simon who threw something like 130 or 140 punches a round and Winky actually kept up with him for about 10 rounds. Wright also threw a lot of punches against Vargas and more recently against Quartey so his workrate isn't low at all, Hopkins neutralized his workrate.

Taylor is a different type of puncher than Williams, Williams' punches don't have the same effect as Taylor's, his punches aren't as strong, Taylor's punches were strong enough to get through Winky's guard, I doubt Williams' strong enough to do so. And Taylor's punches were so strong that whenever he hit Winky on the arms or gloves, Winky's own gloves would be bounching off his face doing damage.

Also, Winky has shown more willingness to open up and trade when his opponents are punching like he did with Taylor and like he did with Quartey, he may not wait for Williams to finish punching before punching back himself.

Anyways, I think if the layoff hasn't affected Wright badly and if age hasn't caught up with him, he wins the fight but those are big ifs.

[Mr. Philadel]

I agree with Harold ......we can't count Wright out but I do see the points D made......Winky's inactive streak has been too long, he might get stopped

[KJB]

Anyways, I think if the layoff hasn't affected Wright badly and if age hasn't caught up with him, he wins the fight but those are big ifs.

Good post, but this is where I see the problem. Winky isnt the kind of fighter that stays in shape or keeps sharp between fights. He hangs out, eats donuts, parties and gets fat. When a 35 year old fighter takes two years out of the ring and attempts to make a comeback, thats tough enough. Try taking two years of Crispy Cremes and couch, at 37 years old I just cant see how Winky wont be slower and rusty.
And dont get me wrong, even an older and rusty Winky could probably beat a lot of guys, but Williams has too many tools and is too hungry at this point.

[Silencers]

Good post, but this is where I see the problem. Winky isnt the kind of fighter that stays in shape or keeps sharp between fights. He hangs out, eats donuts, parties and gets fat. When a 35 year old fighter takes two years out of the ring and attempts to make a comeback, thats tough enough. Try taking two years of Crispy Cremes and couch, at 37 years old I just cant see how Winky wont be slower and rusty.
And dont get me wrong, even an older and rusty Winky could probably beat a lot of guys, but Williams has too many tools and is too hungry at this point.

Thanks.

He should be in shape though, I mean he had a fight with Munoz that was scheduled for December that got canceled so if he's stayed in the gym since that time he should be in great shape by fight time.

The rust is the major factor though, what helps him is that he isn't the type of fighter who relies too much of speed or reflexes although speed definitely did help him, he's not like a Mayweather or a Jones and he hasn't been in many wars and hasn't taken too much punishment over the years so his skills shouldn't have deteriorated too badly. But we're only speculating right now, we won't know for sure until he steps into the ring to fight Williams.

[Crazylegs77]

If it wasnt for the long layoff Id say Wright would completely dominate Williams. Williams isnt an elite fighter but he has a few advantages going into this fight. Still I am leaning towards Wright but it will all depend on his conditioning since he has 0 power ints gonna go 12.

[MANGLER]

I think Winky will win some early rds before Pwill warms up. After that, Pwill will outwork him to a UD. 116-112 sounds about right.

[!! Shawn]

Wright loses a 9-3 or 8-4 decision to Williams based on the following factors:

1. Wright is old, and is losing his skill as every day goes by.
2. Wright has had a massive layoff, and those skills don't stay fresh with each day that you don't box, so I expect that he will be rusty.
3. Wright's defense has shown significant diminishment since the Trinidad masterpiece. He struggled against Soliman, Taylor and Hopkins, getting hit with punches that were custom made for his guard (Taylor specifically... Taylor scored by punching through the guard, something that had no previously been done).
4. Wright's worst outings have always been against volume punchers. In his fights against Vargas, Hernandez and Soliman, he struggled because he was not able to keep up in level of activity. Vargas ran over him in the rounds he won by just throwing so many more punches... if you throw more, more land. Hernandez is an average fighter who did very well (much better than he should have) against Wright, because of the amount of punches he threw. Soliman did his whirlwind gig, and it won him a lot of rounds, because Wright spent so much time with his guard up that he was not spending enough time throwing back in order to sweep the amount of rounds he should have won against an opponent of this caliber.
5. Williams is, by far, the most active fighter that Wright has ever faced, and he is easily the best volume puncher he has faced (you could make the argument that Vargas and Taylor are better, but they were fighting out of their natural gameplan, Williams will be naturally throwing thousands of punches).
6. Williams goes to the body (as shown in the Phillips fight), and Wright doesn't enough, which means that Williams keeps throwing a zillion punches and Wright throws less and less.
7. Wright thrives on when his opponent stops to throw his counterpunches (rather than throwing over the punch or whatever) and Williams rarely stops.

All of those reasons are why I have a really, REALLY bad feeling about this fight.

Never mind that the Vargas decision was awful and Winky deserved that fight. Never mind that he had the flu against Soliman, never mind that he came up 14lb for Hopkins.

While I love you for trying here are the factors at play.

Wright is a southpaw. Pwill still is very green against southpaws.

As a southpaw fighting a southpaw Pwill is gonna find it very hard to split wrights gaurd. He is going to have trouble with wrights stiff jab, and effective body punching.

While Paul showed he could make the adjustments needed to win the second quintana fight, Winky is a whole different beast.

We are gonna see Winky expose just how deep Pwills problems with southpaws goes.

I have a feeling the Pwill is going to have difficulty getting off all his punches. Even Winkeys stiff legs still turn. And hes gonna be turning him all ni

This fight will by no means be easy.