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i got a feelin SSM will get forced into a brawl he can't win. He ain't goin down easy tho. Marg TKO, probably stops him on his feet.
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I like Shane Mosley but I feel like we've been looking pretty hard to find patches of the old Sugar where age has really made him lose a step. He isn't who he was. His resume for the last 3 years really doesn't impress me...and that's what we're basing his skills on.
After the losses to Winky Wright Shane was on the 'comeback' trail and wanted a few solid wins, so:
David Estrada UD 10
Jose Luis Cruz UD 10
Those two journeymen level opponents really bother me when we look at how Shane performed. Sure, Shane wanted some wins and took softer opposition to get it but, honestly, the old Sugar Shane would've gotten those guys out of there rather quickly. Yes, I know those are tough guys who can't just be blown over...but still.
Then he had those fights with an obviously washed-up Vargas...nothing proven out of that- then what...
Luis Collazo UD 12.
Sure, Collazo is a slick boxer but Sugar Shane is supposed to be elite, word class level. Again, a few years back he would've done an alarming amount of damage to this guy. No, he didn't look bad- but the debate in terms of Mosley-Margarito is really based on how much Shane has left...and this fight is another gut check for me.
Then Mosley took on Cotto, had a good showing, but still lost - and this is most likely the basis for most people still being high on Shane. They thought he fought well, hard, and just fell a bit short against Miguel and still see him as a legitimate threat.
The Mayorga fight proved nothing to me- other than Shane is way older than he looked against Cotto. Really? 12 rounds- and Mosley got smacked a few times where I really felt that slick Sugar wouldn't have even worked up a sweat. Does anyone remember the ass beating Mayorga took when he fought Oscar?
So now Mosley steps up to the plate against Margarito. I'll be the first to admit I underestimated him going into the Cotto fight. I thought Miguel would outbox him easily but Margarito really does apply some brutally effective pressure if he brings it. The Williams fight was an exception, which probably made me underrate him like I did, but that might have had more to do with Paul's size and what he did right as much as anything Margarito did wrong.
Margarito has 4 knock outs in his last 6- Clottey escaping the KO and the loss to Williams withstanding. The Johnson KO was brutal, and the Cotto fight showed that Antonio can break down elite level boxers even if they come to fight.
So, really, it come down to- can Shane stay focused, box, rely on his speed and footwork- not get drawn into a brawl- AND do all that effectivley enough to keep Margarito off him.
The answer to me...based on Margarito's star rising, and the less than spectacular last 3 years from Mosley....No.
Margarito just got to the top and he's not going to let Mosley take it from him without a fight. That means Margarito brings it. He'll come with that pressure and make Mosley work in a way he hasn't in years. That's not good for Shane. I think Mosley has lost more than a step- compared to the fighter he was- and he's just plain not prepared for Antonio based on fighting guys like Mayorga, Vargas, Estrada, etc. Cotto was his only elite level fighter since he fought Winky...and it didn't go Shane's way.
Despite liking Shane, and maybe even rooting for him, I have to take Margarito in this one. A KO for him is possible but I'll give Mosley the benefit of the doubt and say he has just enough 'Sugar' left to go into survival mode near the 5th when he realizes he can't handle what Margarito is bringing, allowing him to dance enough to stop himself from getting knocked out- but also getting beat rather soundly.
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