Will we see Jones-Calzaghe 2?
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Calzaghe throws too many punches, will force Roy to burn up too much energy early, and he'll crawl into his defensive shell midway through the fight to ensure he can finish on his feet. Roy doesn't have the legs to go even 8 rounds at Calzaghe's pace. If he could fight the full 12 throwing at that pace, I'd have him at a 2/1 favorite over Zaggs. He can't. If you think he can, then your assumption is ******ed, instead.
Look, pal, I like RJJ, always have, and I'm actually quite OK with either way this fight goes...I'll enjoy seeing Roy become a superstar a second time 'round, but I'd also enjoy seeing Calzaghe keep his 0 and retire with it intact. I'm just giving my well thought out opinion on how I think it will most likely go, without bias or favoritism in any way. If you think that's ******ed, well....maybe I'm not the one that's under some sort of delusion.Comment
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I think you're misunderstanding my meaning that term. By "close", I'm talking one that you'd have to struggle to pick a clear winner. I don't think it's going to be a blowout, and I think Jones will still be in it, I just don't think he's going to work enough after that point to deserve a coin toss over a round. And I do think there will be judges giving him rounds after the 5th...after all, he's RJJ, and if he throws a dozen punches, lands 6 of those, he'll probably get a round or two, especially if he makes a rally of any kind...judges are notorious for giving a round to a guy if he does anything just because they've taken 2 or 3 in a row away from him. But I don't believe the fight will be closer than 7 to 5 rounds, maybe even 8 to 4. Jones will probably win 2 of the first 3 or 4, then maybe the 7th and/or 8th, and then probably either the 11th or 12th. That doesn't mean he'd take those rounds on my scorecard, just that I think he'll probably get by that way on the judges scorecard. His work rate will be too low, I think, to be able to seriously score for him after mid rounds.
Let's just wait and see who's right and who's wrong. I think you're a very devout Jones fan and aren't seeing quite as clearly as you would otherwise.
And hey...if Roy can somehow manage to get into shape to throw that way for 12, then everything I've thought about this fight will be completely and utterly wrong, and he'll become the favorite in an instant....but I don't think he can reach that level of conditioning again, not ever.Comment
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