I'm a huge B-hop fan, but he was looking pretty worn out at the end of the Calz fight. I think Pavlik can and will be able to inflict much more damage than Calz. I wouldn't be surprised to see the old man quit, TKO'd, or even KO'd in the late rounds.
No way Hop wins with his low stamina due to age finally kicking in. Pavlik is a future cash cow in boxing, anything even remotely close on the cards is going his way, and Bernard is not active enough to put him down to avoid a dodgey decision. Spoiler tactics might not even help prevent a stoppage with how Kelly makes every punch count with those heavy hands.. and he goes to the body fairly regularly.
I think that people are really underestimating Hopkins. Not that Bernard will win the fight, but stop him? Hes simply too smart and is willing to do anything to not be seriously hurt. Pavlik has a style that is not hard to figure out(similar to Trinidad) and Hopkins does not take a fight unless he has been studying his opponents for a long time, just the way he did with De La Hoya, Trinidad and Calzaghe. Calzaghe has a high workrate, is faster than Pavlik and also throws more punches, and i didn't see him land aything big on Hopkins for the entire fight. I like Pavlik by close decision but it will be his toughest test against one of the greatest middleweights of all time, and hes fighting at a weight that he has never fought at before. Pavlik would need more than a left jab and straight right hand to get to Hopkins but as Thunder Lips as stated, his workrate alone should be enough for him.
Pavlik doesn't need to take this fight. Its a lose lose situation for him. If he wins another close decision, then the critics will just say join the club with Taylor and Calzaghe. He will only get lots of credit if he blows Hopkins out ot even stop him, and thats somthing that no one is expecting.
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