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This morning I watched the fight for the third time. Each time it looked better for Pavlik. I'm not going to bother going through round by round (I did that on the second viewing: http://www.boxingscene.com/forums/sh....php?t=156348), but Pavlik said some things on the Countdown that gave me reason to rewatch.
1. According to Leow, Pavlik claims to have realized he had JT beaten when Taylor's pec quivered. This was BEFORE Kelly landed the big right hand that pushed Taylor back to the corner. When did Kelly hurt JT so badly that the TKO became inevitable? This happened very gradually, though I still think the key punch in the fight, if there was one, was a right hand in the middle of Round 6.
This is important only against the theory that Pavlik at some point turned the fight around. I watched the fight this morning with this in mind, and it was indeed a slow, steady beating without genuine turning points. It doesn't matter that JT won a few of those rounds. Kelly doesn't need the rounds, he takes a toll even in rounds he's losing.
2. Pavlik said he's not sure Jermaine's body can last the fight. He understands how he broke him down, that Taylor cannot take the punishment he has to give. I had wondered whether JT could win a decision in the rematch. I now think there's little to no chance of it going the distance.
3. Taylor made the better technical adjustments. By the fifth round Taylor had figured out Pavlik's timing on his punches. Taylor managed to slip jabs and rights and come back with his own shots. But Pavlik never ceased, he didn't let losing the battle diminish his output. I realized in that round this morning that even if Taylor wins the first eight rounds next week, he'll get knocked out after that. So don't bother keeping a scorecard next week.
Until today I was giving Taylor a chance. No more.
1. According to Leow, Pavlik claims to have realized he had JT beaten when Taylor's pec quivered. This was BEFORE Kelly landed the big right hand that pushed Taylor back to the corner. When did Kelly hurt JT so badly that the TKO became inevitable? This happened very gradually, though I still think the key punch in the fight, if there was one, was a right hand in the middle of Round 6.
This is important only against the theory that Pavlik at some point turned the fight around. I watched the fight this morning with this in mind, and it was indeed a slow, steady beating without genuine turning points. It doesn't matter that JT won a few of those rounds. Kelly doesn't need the rounds, he takes a toll even in rounds he's losing.
2. Pavlik said he's not sure Jermaine's body can last the fight. He understands how he broke him down, that Taylor cannot take the punishment he has to give. I had wondered whether JT could win a decision in the rematch. I now think there's little to no chance of it going the distance.
3. Taylor made the better technical adjustments. By the fifth round Taylor had figured out Pavlik's timing on his punches. Taylor managed to slip jabs and rights and come back with his own shots. But Pavlik never ceased, he didn't let losing the battle diminish his output. I realized in that round this morning that even if Taylor wins the first eight rounds next week, he'll get knocked out after that. So don't bother keeping a scorecard next week.
Until today I was giving Taylor a chance. No more.
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