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An article in ESPNBoxing (or actually MAXBoxing):
How many perfect records will fall this fall?
Naturally, I'm bummed that Adrian Diaconu and Oleg Maskaev have joined boxing's seemingly endless list of walking wounded. But I'm not going to allow it to obscure the fact that the fight schedule from now until early December is still as good a seasonal stretch as I've seen in my 10 years of boxing writing. Part of what makes it so exceptional is just how many undefeated fighters are putting their zeroes on the line this autumn. Almost all of the big fights feature an unbeaten contestant, and three of the very biggest battles feature two perfect records in a "someone's 'O' has got to go" scenario: Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik, Joe Calzaghe vs. Mikkel Kessler, and Floyd Mayweather vs. Ricky Hatton.
In all, I counted 20 fighters between now and Dec. 8 who are putting their undefeated records on the line in significant fights. And by "significant," I don't mean 3-0 or 5-0 or even 10-0 prospects on club show undercards; I'm talking champions, titlists, or at least extremely high profile prospects. So I took the 20 heroes with zeroes and broke them down into three categories: The extremely safe (I'd be shocked if they lost), The kind of safe (I don't expect them to lose, but I could see it happening), and the not-at-all-safe (they're somewhere in the 50/50 range or worse). And here's some reassuring news: I put 10 of the 20 in the last category, which means we have some competitive fights on our hands, fights in which "O's" may very well go.
The extremely safe
Chad Dawson Once upon a time, Epifanio Mendoza was a highly dangerous puncher responsible for derailing Tokunbo Olajide and Rubin Williams. But his limitations have been exposed, and remember, his best work was done at middleweight. At light heavyweight, he's no match for Dawson. Since he's a replacement opponent for a replacement opponent, it's unfair to complain too much, but this is a mismatch nevertheless.
Amir Khan. I don't know much about Scott Lawton, the British opponent Olympic silver medalist Khan is scheduled to face on Oct. 6. But I do know he has four knockout wins in 24 fights, and I know he has a draw against a 1-8 fighter on his record. I also know Khan's people aren't looking to take any risks with him right now. This hardly even counts as a "significant" fight, except Khan just might be the best under-drinking-age fighter on the planet.
Sergio Mora. As we learned a couple of days ago, the opponent for "The Latin Snake" on Oct. 16 is going to be Elvin Ayala, a twice-beaten ex-prospect whom I saw fight live a couple of times very early in his career. He didn't impress me much then, and two decision losses to David Banks in the past year don't impress me either. I'm a believer in Mora, and as long as he doesn't suffer a huge mental letdown because he's in there with someone other than Kassim Ouma, this should be an easy night's work.
Steve Molitor. At first glance, an opponent with a 58-8-1 (35) record sounds like a tough dude who's been around the block and can't be taken for granted. But in 67 fights, Fahsan 3K Battery has never beaten a half-decent contender. In his current 14-fight winning streak, 10 of his 14 opponents had losing records. When he's stepped up, he's always lost (most notably against the ordinary Art Simonyan and by fourth-round knockout against Manny Pacquiao). The semi-unproven Molitor may or may not be the greatest thing Canada has produced since William Shatner, but I can't imagine him struggling much with this unworthy Thai challenger.
Floyd Mayweather. Some people aren't going to agree with this opinion, but Mayweather-Hatton strikes me as a "superfight" with two possible outcomes: Mayweather wins comfortably, and Mayweather wins ridiculously comfortably. Hatton's smothering style would pose problems to Mayweather if the Brit was bigger and a heavier puncher. But he is what he is, and I don't think he has the tools to damage Floyd. Frankly, I expect him to get boxed silly. As with Mayweather-De La Hoya, I figure the 24/7 documentaries to be a lot more memorable than the fight.
The kind-of safe
Andre Berto. I was tempted to put the '04 Olympian in the "extremely safe" category, but I can't get the image of that Cosme Rivera uppercut dropping him out of my head, and opponent David Estrada is no joke -- he's a gatekeeper who only loses to top fighters. He's already bumped off two unbeaten prospects (Nurhan Suleymanoglu and Chris Smith). I'm pretty sure Berto is better than those guys. But this is no Nito Bravo or Miguel Figueroa he's up against.
Sultan Ibragimov. Logic says a legitimate top heavyweight shouldn't have anything to fear against a 44-year-old Evander Holyfield. But logic has said a lot of things about Holyfield that turned out to be incorrect. I definitely view Ibragimov as the favorite, but I can't count "The Real Deal" out -- especially because the Russian reeks of mediocrity. Plus, according to Rocky IV, the aging American legend can beat the Russian on his home turf. And if we can't trust the movie-making of Sly Stallone, what can we trust?
Lucian Bute. The Romanian-Canadian super middleweight seems to have almost every edge in his alphabet title challenge against Alejandro Berrio in Montreal, especially with all four of Berrio's losses coming by knockout, but the Colombian with 25 stoppages in 26 wins definitely has the ol' puncher's chance. No matter how high class Bute may turn out to be, you're never totally safe against a guy who can bomb like Berrio can. Bute just needs to keep his hands up and keep his forehead out of kissing range.
Alexander Povetkin. Though he has yet to fully prove it in the ring, I'm of the belief that the 28-year-old Povetkin, a veteran of only 13 pro fights, is already one of the five best heavyweights in the world. Consider: Larry Donald, who in his previous fight lost a controversial majority decision to Nicolay Valuev, didn't win a single round against Povetkin. Donald also recently drew with Ray Austin, who also drew with Sultan Ibragimov. What I'm trying to say here is that as capable as Chris Byrd still is at 37, I make the 2004 Olympic gold medalist a solid favorite in their Oct. 27 bout.
Andre Ward. On Nov. 16 on "ShoBox", America's lone '04 gold medalist takes on Roger Cantrell, who's compiled a 12-0 (8) record while taking on the most mediocre middleweights, super middleweights and light heavyweights that the Tacoma, Washington, area has to offer. Naturally, Ward is the favorite. But Cantrell's nickname is "Never Can Tell" (a horrible nickname, but potentially appropriate for this fight), and quite a few good prospects have gotten upended on "ShoBox" over the years. Having never seen Cantrell fight, I can't pick Ward to join the list. But I also can't say my jaw would hit the floor if he did.
Naturally, I'm bummed that Adrian Diaconu and Oleg Maskaev have joined boxing's seemingly endless list of walking wounded. But I'm not going to allow it to obscure the fact that the fight schedule from now until early December is still as good a seasonal stretch as I've seen in my 10 years of boxing writing. Part of what makes it so exceptional is just how many undefeated fighters are putting their zeroes on the line this autumn. Almost all of the big fights feature an unbeaten contestant, and three of the very biggest battles feature two perfect records in a "someone's 'O' has got to go" scenario: Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik, Joe Calzaghe vs. Mikkel Kessler, and Floyd Mayweather vs. Ricky Hatton.
In all, I counted 20 fighters between now and Dec. 8 who are putting their undefeated records on the line in significant fights. And by "significant," I don't mean 3-0 or 5-0 or even 10-0 prospects on club show undercards; I'm talking champions, titlists, or at least extremely high profile prospects. So I took the 20 heroes with zeroes and broke them down into three categories: The extremely safe (I'd be shocked if they lost), The kind of safe (I don't expect them to lose, but I could see it happening), and the not-at-all-safe (they're somewhere in the 50/50 range or worse). And here's some reassuring news: I put 10 of the 20 in the last category, which means we have some competitive fights on our hands, fights in which "O's" may very well go.
The extremely safe
Chad Dawson Once upon a time, Epifanio Mendoza was a highly dangerous puncher responsible for derailing Tokunbo Olajide and Rubin Williams. But his limitations have been exposed, and remember, his best work was done at middleweight. At light heavyweight, he's no match for Dawson. Since he's a replacement opponent for a replacement opponent, it's unfair to complain too much, but this is a mismatch nevertheless.
Amir Khan. I don't know much about Scott Lawton, the British opponent Olympic silver medalist Khan is scheduled to face on Oct. 6. But I do know he has four knockout wins in 24 fights, and I know he has a draw against a 1-8 fighter on his record. I also know Khan's people aren't looking to take any risks with him right now. This hardly even counts as a "significant" fight, except Khan just might be the best under-drinking-age fighter on the planet.
Sergio Mora. As we learned a couple of days ago, the opponent for "The Latin Snake" on Oct. 16 is going to be Elvin Ayala, a twice-beaten ex-prospect whom I saw fight live a couple of times very early in his career. He didn't impress me much then, and two decision losses to David Banks in the past year don't impress me either. I'm a believer in Mora, and as long as he doesn't suffer a huge mental letdown because he's in there with someone other than Kassim Ouma, this should be an easy night's work.
Steve Molitor. At first glance, an opponent with a 58-8-1 (35) record sounds like a tough dude who's been around the block and can't be taken for granted. But in 67 fights, Fahsan 3K Battery has never beaten a half-decent contender. In his current 14-fight winning streak, 10 of his 14 opponents had losing records. When he's stepped up, he's always lost (most notably against the ordinary Art Simonyan and by fourth-round knockout against Manny Pacquiao). The semi-unproven Molitor may or may not be the greatest thing Canada has produced since William Shatner, but I can't imagine him struggling much with this unworthy Thai challenger.
Floyd Mayweather. Some people aren't going to agree with this opinion, but Mayweather-Hatton strikes me as a "superfight" with two possible outcomes: Mayweather wins comfortably, and Mayweather wins ridiculously comfortably. Hatton's smothering style would pose problems to Mayweather if the Brit was bigger and a heavier puncher. But he is what he is, and I don't think he has the tools to damage Floyd. Frankly, I expect him to get boxed silly. As with Mayweather-De La Hoya, I figure the 24/7 documentaries to be a lot more memorable than the fight.
The kind-of safe
Andre Berto. I was tempted to put the '04 Olympian in the "extremely safe" category, but I can't get the image of that Cosme Rivera uppercut dropping him out of my head, and opponent David Estrada is no joke -- he's a gatekeeper who only loses to top fighters. He's already bumped off two unbeaten prospects (Nurhan Suleymanoglu and Chris Smith). I'm pretty sure Berto is better than those guys. But this is no Nito Bravo or Miguel Figueroa he's up against.
Sultan Ibragimov. Logic says a legitimate top heavyweight shouldn't have anything to fear against a 44-year-old Evander Holyfield. But logic has said a lot of things about Holyfield that turned out to be incorrect. I definitely view Ibragimov as the favorite, but I can't count "The Real Deal" out -- especially because the Russian reeks of mediocrity. Plus, according to Rocky IV, the aging American legend can beat the Russian on his home turf. And if we can't trust the movie-making of Sly Stallone, what can we trust?
Lucian Bute. The Romanian-Canadian super middleweight seems to have almost every edge in his alphabet title challenge against Alejandro Berrio in Montreal, especially with all four of Berrio's losses coming by knockout, but the Colombian with 25 stoppages in 26 wins definitely has the ol' puncher's chance. No matter how high class Bute may turn out to be, you're never totally safe against a guy who can bomb like Berrio can. Bute just needs to keep his hands up and keep his forehead out of kissing range.
Alexander Povetkin. Though he has yet to fully prove it in the ring, I'm of the belief that the 28-year-old Povetkin, a veteran of only 13 pro fights, is already one of the five best heavyweights in the world. Consider: Larry Donald, who in his previous fight lost a controversial majority decision to Nicolay Valuev, didn't win a single round against Povetkin. Donald also recently drew with Ray Austin, who also drew with Sultan Ibragimov. What I'm trying to say here is that as capable as Chris Byrd still is at 37, I make the 2004 Olympic gold medalist a solid favorite in their Oct. 27 bout.
Andre Ward. On Nov. 16 on "ShoBox", America's lone '04 gold medalist takes on Roger Cantrell, who's compiled a 12-0 (8) record while taking on the most mediocre middleweights, super middleweights and light heavyweights that the Tacoma, Washington, area has to offer. Naturally, Ward is the favorite. But Cantrell's nickname is "Never Can Tell" (a horrible nickname, but potentially appropriate for this fight), and quite a few good prospects have gotten upended on "ShoBox" over the years. Having never seen Cantrell fight, I can't pick Ward to join the list. But I also can't say my jaw would hit the floor if he did.
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