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Fight Forecast: The unsung will sizzle, the hype will fizzle in the fall
21.08.07 - By Gabriel DeCrease
The Over-hyped, Bound to Flop
Miguel Angel Cotto v. Shane Mosley:
“Sugar” Shane was a top-fighter, and a pound-for-pound contender as a lightweight, and, perhaps, just outside that status in the early part of his welterweight campaign. As a young fighter he was one of the very best. But his sugar has gotten markedly less sweet as he moved-up through the weight divisions. His back-to-back victories over Oscar De La Hoya created the false-hope that Mosley was back at full-speed at 154-pounds. This was simply a case of one fighter having another fighter’s number in one way or another. The same was true, in a quite different way, of Ricardo Mayorga when he posted back-to-back wins over Vernon Forrest.
In any case, the pair of losses to Winky Wright marked the end of Shane Mosley as an elite fighter, and nothing he has done since provides real proof that he is improbably rejuvenated. His two wins over Fernando Vargas said nothing about Mosley other than that he was less shot, at the time of the meetings than Vargas, who was, by that time, all-the-way-gone. Vargas, a hard-living contact fighter with a leaky defense and a heart too-big, burned-out very early. Mosley was, for all intents and purposes, beating a corpse deeper into the ground.
Against Collazo Mosley faced a young fighter on shaky footing who allowed the veteran to dictate the pace and intensity of the fight. Collazo appeared to think he was in the ring with the Mosley of eight-years-ago. Mosley, noting that ability, set the bar low and outclassed an opponent of lesser-talent. Lots of waiting, lots of stutter-stepping, and a surplus of light contact sparring…doesn’t sound like the return of the king to me. Mosley looked great because he remains a well-conditioned fighter with a great boxing intelligence and tremendous form, but the fire was not there, the intensity showed up only in displays that looked good on television, but did little work in the fight itself. Nothing that has happened in the world of “Sugar” Shane over the last seven years indicates that he ought to be cruising toward a showdown with a fresh, young, bomb-dropping, natural welterweight who is improving greatly with every fight.
I smell a mismatch. I can hear it now. Once Mosley is worn down and obliterated over the distance, or inside it, the consensus will be that he got old overnight. I think he’s been moving in that direction for some time.
Miguel Cotto’s defensive problems of yesteryear seem to be fading quickly. The move up to welterweight (and thus the abandonment of those draining camps) and the focus on cleaner, tighter punching has Cotto looking confident, poised, and full of vicious verve. Yes, Judah beat himself before Cotto had the chance. Yes, the low blows were a factor. But in the absence of all that, I still think Cotto would have worn Zab down and cruised to a comfortable decision--even if he did eat a lot of left uppercuts coming in with his own heavy artillery. Cotto is learning to adapt to a fight, to work effectively while tailoring a game-plan on the fly. He will, I am very sure, give away a few early rounds to Mosley, who will come out energetic, working the jab, and then, around the third the tide will begin to shift and Cotto’s crushing body-attach and quick, short uppercuts will begin to take over the fight as Mosley will not have the juice in his step in from the middle rounds on to speed to safer-range. Issues of freshness, stamina under fire, and ring-wear will probably put the nails in Mosley’s coffin. I expect a late-round stoppage or lopsided-decision in Cotto’s favor.
Ricky Hatton v. Floyd Mayweather:
For the first time, disliking Floyd Mayweather, his disposition, his style, his choices, his refusal to really fight, and his incessant whining is the least of my concerns looking toward a fight in which he is set to appear. This time, Floyd being Floyd, is what it is, as they say, and it is not to blame. A few years back there was a mile long list of fighters from lightweight to middleweight that some subsection of the boxing public and/or press said was ready and willing to outbox, out-hustle, out-punch, or out-fox “Pretty Boy” Floyd. That variable list often included, depending on who was making it: Anotonio Margarito, Miguel Angel Cotto, Kostya Tszyu, Oscar De La Hoya, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, and Ricky Hatton. By way of retirement, Mayweather’s own punches, or being beaten soundly or exposed by another guy on the same track to Mayweather, most kind-of fell out of contention, and, ultimately, became irrelevant in the debate. Ricky Hatton remains, and now finds himself signed-up to tangle with Mayweather, trouble is, just like Gatti, Judah, and De La Hoya before him, despite the hopeful hope, he does not have a prayer of defeating today’s preeminent pound-for-pound pontiff. Yes, they could all knock him out if they had half-a-chance, but they did not even get one-millionth-of-a-chance.
Earlier in Hatton’s career, sometime just before or just after he had ground and grit and growled his way past an aging Kostya Tszyu, the word was that Hatton, the pressure-fighting force-of-nature, was a little green to bring his full-frontal assault against Mayweather’s bewitching boxing black magic. And now that the 28-year-old Hatton might have accrued enough experience at the top-tier to know what to do against a tricky, patient, lightning-quick and efficient fighter, he appears to be in the twilight of his freshness. Hatton never went through a period where he boxed, conserved himself with future glories in mind, he is an all-out type of warrior, and while that is admirable, it appears he is also the type of warrior who is not built to last. Hatton’s notoriously crunching battles between fights with pint glasses and greasy buffet plates are, no doubt, partly to blame. But, whatever the case, he is slowing down. Set aside his last outing against Jose Luis Castillo because Castillo showed up so shot and crumbled after his own arduous ring-life of full-contact deathmatches, that he fell under the accumulated weight of a grueling career, not under the punishment of Ricky Hattons heavy hands. That fight revealed little, other than that it is time for Castillo to hang up his gloves and go on to being lauded and honored in retirement. So look back past that fight to Hatton’s surprisingly tough scrap with Juan Urango, who, if Hatton is to be any match for Mayweather, should not have been able to use speed and flurries at angles so to such great avail.
The other troubling question is one of weight. Hatton’s first (and only) time out at welterweight he did not impress in scraping out an awkward and tentative decision win over Luis Collazo. Collazo, a natural 147-pounder, it seemed was simply too big and durable by nature of his size to have the same vulnerabilities to Hatton’s body-work-oriented, close-quarters mauling-style. After the fight, it was revealed that Hatton trainer had protested the decision to move “The Hitman” up in weight to campaign as a welterweight. Hatton and his team agreed that he was, and should remain a junior welter, but then a chance at Mayweather appeared in the wake of Hatton’s zealous, call-out-everybody-after-a-win comments after he floored and stopped Jose Luis Castillo. Too bad that when put in put-up or shut-up situations Ricky always puts-up.
As of now, the Mayweather fight is planned to go off between a pair of welterweights, and if Hatton is one of them, he will no doubt prove again that his frame and his abilities do not hang-tough at 147. At 147-pounds Hatton’s normally limited flexibility seemed utterly inhibited, and thus his range was limited to such a degree that it took some of his range away, and he continued fighting as if it remained unchanged to much ill-effect.
It would be a blow-out if Mayweather had to meet Hatton in the junior-welterweight division. Even if at 140-pounds, the fight would go off with a blisteringly quick, if not a bit drained, Mayweather painting the plodding Hatton with flurries from odd angles until the proud Hatton began to break down, open-up, slow, stall, and drop against to Mayweather’s steady, precise, if not killing blows. At 147-pounds, I expect that process will be expedited. Mayweather proved against De La Hoya that his speed was still a distinct advantage at 150 pounds (Mayweather weighed-in well-below the 154-pound limit. So back at 147, against a naturally smaller fighter who has, truly, never gone up against a slick-boxing speedster who uses his hand-speed to such great avail, Mayweather will be utterly dominant. Hatton, outside of a one-in-a-million punch landing, has not a prayer of getting over on Mayweather. All his advantages will be his undoing because his pressure attack, his chin, his ability to find openings in close-quarters will never have the chance to serve him because he will be drubbed at a distance and worked from angles until he falls. Ricky Hatton was bound to wear-out early, but the whipping he is headed for might just make his 28th year the last one where he is a relevant factor in any division’s title-mix.
21.08.07 - By Gabriel DeCrease
The Over-hyped, Bound to Flop
Miguel Angel Cotto v. Shane Mosley:
“Sugar” Shane was a top-fighter, and a pound-for-pound contender as a lightweight, and, perhaps, just outside that status in the early part of his welterweight campaign. As a young fighter he was one of the very best. But his sugar has gotten markedly less sweet as he moved-up through the weight divisions. His back-to-back victories over Oscar De La Hoya created the false-hope that Mosley was back at full-speed at 154-pounds. This was simply a case of one fighter having another fighter’s number in one way or another. The same was true, in a quite different way, of Ricardo Mayorga when he posted back-to-back wins over Vernon Forrest.
In any case, the pair of losses to Winky Wright marked the end of Shane Mosley as an elite fighter, and nothing he has done since provides real proof that he is improbably rejuvenated. His two wins over Fernando Vargas said nothing about Mosley other than that he was less shot, at the time of the meetings than Vargas, who was, by that time, all-the-way-gone. Vargas, a hard-living contact fighter with a leaky defense and a heart too-big, burned-out very early. Mosley was, for all intents and purposes, beating a corpse deeper into the ground.
Against Collazo Mosley faced a young fighter on shaky footing who allowed the veteran to dictate the pace and intensity of the fight. Collazo appeared to think he was in the ring with the Mosley of eight-years-ago. Mosley, noting that ability, set the bar low and outclassed an opponent of lesser-talent. Lots of waiting, lots of stutter-stepping, and a surplus of light contact sparring…doesn’t sound like the return of the king to me. Mosley looked great because he remains a well-conditioned fighter with a great boxing intelligence and tremendous form, but the fire was not there, the intensity showed up only in displays that looked good on television, but did little work in the fight itself. Nothing that has happened in the world of “Sugar” Shane over the last seven years indicates that he ought to be cruising toward a showdown with a fresh, young, bomb-dropping, natural welterweight who is improving greatly with every fight.
I smell a mismatch. I can hear it now. Once Mosley is worn down and obliterated over the distance, or inside it, the consensus will be that he got old overnight. I think he’s been moving in that direction for some time.
Miguel Cotto’s defensive problems of yesteryear seem to be fading quickly. The move up to welterweight (and thus the abandonment of those draining camps) and the focus on cleaner, tighter punching has Cotto looking confident, poised, and full of vicious verve. Yes, Judah beat himself before Cotto had the chance. Yes, the low blows were a factor. But in the absence of all that, I still think Cotto would have worn Zab down and cruised to a comfortable decision--even if he did eat a lot of left uppercuts coming in with his own heavy artillery. Cotto is learning to adapt to a fight, to work effectively while tailoring a game-plan on the fly. He will, I am very sure, give away a few early rounds to Mosley, who will come out energetic, working the jab, and then, around the third the tide will begin to shift and Cotto’s crushing body-attach and quick, short uppercuts will begin to take over the fight as Mosley will not have the juice in his step in from the middle rounds on to speed to safer-range. Issues of freshness, stamina under fire, and ring-wear will probably put the nails in Mosley’s coffin. I expect a late-round stoppage or lopsided-decision in Cotto’s favor.
Ricky Hatton v. Floyd Mayweather:
For the first time, disliking Floyd Mayweather, his disposition, his style, his choices, his refusal to really fight, and his incessant whining is the least of my concerns looking toward a fight in which he is set to appear. This time, Floyd being Floyd, is what it is, as they say, and it is not to blame. A few years back there was a mile long list of fighters from lightweight to middleweight that some subsection of the boxing public and/or press said was ready and willing to outbox, out-hustle, out-punch, or out-fox “Pretty Boy” Floyd. That variable list often included, depending on who was making it: Anotonio Margarito, Miguel Angel Cotto, Kostya Tszyu, Oscar De La Hoya, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, and Ricky Hatton. By way of retirement, Mayweather’s own punches, or being beaten soundly or exposed by another guy on the same track to Mayweather, most kind-of fell out of contention, and, ultimately, became irrelevant in the debate. Ricky Hatton remains, and now finds himself signed-up to tangle with Mayweather, trouble is, just like Gatti, Judah, and De La Hoya before him, despite the hopeful hope, he does not have a prayer of defeating today’s preeminent pound-for-pound pontiff. Yes, they could all knock him out if they had half-a-chance, but they did not even get one-millionth-of-a-chance.
Earlier in Hatton’s career, sometime just before or just after he had ground and grit and growled his way past an aging Kostya Tszyu, the word was that Hatton, the pressure-fighting force-of-nature, was a little green to bring his full-frontal assault against Mayweather’s bewitching boxing black magic. And now that the 28-year-old Hatton might have accrued enough experience at the top-tier to know what to do against a tricky, patient, lightning-quick and efficient fighter, he appears to be in the twilight of his freshness. Hatton never went through a period where he boxed, conserved himself with future glories in mind, he is an all-out type of warrior, and while that is admirable, it appears he is also the type of warrior who is not built to last. Hatton’s notoriously crunching battles between fights with pint glasses and greasy buffet plates are, no doubt, partly to blame. But, whatever the case, he is slowing down. Set aside his last outing against Jose Luis Castillo because Castillo showed up so shot and crumbled after his own arduous ring-life of full-contact deathmatches, that he fell under the accumulated weight of a grueling career, not under the punishment of Ricky Hattons heavy hands. That fight revealed little, other than that it is time for Castillo to hang up his gloves and go on to being lauded and honored in retirement. So look back past that fight to Hatton’s surprisingly tough scrap with Juan Urango, who, if Hatton is to be any match for Mayweather, should not have been able to use speed and flurries at angles so to such great avail.
The other troubling question is one of weight. Hatton’s first (and only) time out at welterweight he did not impress in scraping out an awkward and tentative decision win over Luis Collazo. Collazo, a natural 147-pounder, it seemed was simply too big and durable by nature of his size to have the same vulnerabilities to Hatton’s body-work-oriented, close-quarters mauling-style. After the fight, it was revealed that Hatton trainer had protested the decision to move “The Hitman” up in weight to campaign as a welterweight. Hatton and his team agreed that he was, and should remain a junior welter, but then a chance at Mayweather appeared in the wake of Hatton’s zealous, call-out-everybody-after-a-win comments after he floored and stopped Jose Luis Castillo. Too bad that when put in put-up or shut-up situations Ricky always puts-up.
As of now, the Mayweather fight is planned to go off between a pair of welterweights, and if Hatton is one of them, he will no doubt prove again that his frame and his abilities do not hang-tough at 147. At 147-pounds Hatton’s normally limited flexibility seemed utterly inhibited, and thus his range was limited to such a degree that it took some of his range away, and he continued fighting as if it remained unchanged to much ill-effect.
It would be a blow-out if Mayweather had to meet Hatton in the junior-welterweight division. Even if at 140-pounds, the fight would go off with a blisteringly quick, if not a bit drained, Mayweather painting the plodding Hatton with flurries from odd angles until the proud Hatton began to break down, open-up, slow, stall, and drop against to Mayweather’s steady, precise, if not killing blows. At 147-pounds, I expect that process will be expedited. Mayweather proved against De La Hoya that his speed was still a distinct advantage at 150 pounds (Mayweather weighed-in well-below the 154-pound limit. So back at 147, against a naturally smaller fighter who has, truly, never gone up against a slick-boxing speedster who uses his hand-speed to such great avail, Mayweather will be utterly dominant. Hatton, outside of a one-in-a-million punch landing, has not a prayer of getting over on Mayweather. All his advantages will be his undoing because his pressure attack, his chin, his ability to find openings in close-quarters will never have the chance to serve him because he will be drubbed at a distance and worked from angles until he falls. Ricky Hatton was bound to wear-out early, but the whipping he is headed for might just make his 28th year the last one where he is a relevant factor in any division’s title-mix.