The Daily Bread Mailbag returns with Stephen "Breadman" Edwards tacking topics such as Manny Pacquiao vs. Errol Spence, Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Casimero vs. Rigondeaux, and more.
I recently started reading your mailbag, and I’m totally hooked. It’s rare to find somebody with your level of knowledge, who is unbiased and seems to genuinely enjoy interacting with fans and educating people about boxing. Darman Rock, you might have some perspective on this since you’re a Philly guy: what happened? I was following Rock since he turned pro, and figured he could be the next big thing when I first heard about him. A naturally huge kid, with very fast hands, Philly gym bred, and a spectacular amateur career at the junior level. I get that there were concerns about his work ethic, but unless he didn’t show up at the gym at all it’s a pretty big disappointment for him to get whipped by Michael Coffie given his pedigree and background. Did I just overrate him? Is heavyweight one division where maybe amateur background doesn’t matter as much.
Thanks, all the best.
Brennan, Vancouver BC
Bread’s Response: Thank you.
Darmani Rock is a super talented fighter. But sometimes in boxing we fall in love with the things that we can see and not the things that we can’t see. It’s so much more to boxing than just talent. It will only get you so far. You need a resourceful support group. Management and promotion to put you in the right fights. And most of all a trainer that takes you through the courses in a productive way. Then after you have that you need a fighter who is disciplined, dedicated and consistent in his work. And even if you have all of these things, you aren’t guaranteed the ultimate prize. But it makes your chances of success much more likely. I have no idea what happened to Rock. But I will almost guarantee something went wrong somewhere along the line of what I mentioned.
This game has so many unrealized parts that sometimes even the fighters themselves don’t know who’s making things work. I know first hand know how talented Rock is. He can be a world champion if all of the spokes in wheel are moving correctly. But I don’t fall in love with talent anymore. Structure, consistency and dedication are more important to me. In the very first round of the Coffie fight I got a little nervous for Rock who I was rooting for. I didn’t like his body language or reaction to the punches. It’s really hard to tell what went wrong not knowing how their camp went etc. But it felt weird to me. Hopefully Rock gets what he needs. One loss shouldn’t define him this early in his career. But his infrastructure will be very important.
I won’t say you overrated him. He’s the goods. But I will say you overrated talent alone. When you see a talented kid you have to see who he’s signed with. Who’s his trainer? Who’s his manager? Where does he train? How does he train? What type of family he has? Who is part of his team? How interacts with people? What he does in the gym? Check his social media. How many children he has? By how many different women? Who he OWES money too? I can go on and on about this. It’s so much more than talent. The thing I observed about Coffie is that he’s a structured MAN. Military background. Mature. MAN. Sometimes that can overcome talent and pedigree.
What's up Bread!
I did not saw too much questions about the Charlo vs Castaño fight, which I think has everything to be a fight of the year contender ! (2 young guns in their prime, ready to take some to throw some, with 4 belts on the line).I agree with you, I would slightly favor Charlo. I think Castaño is really impressive in his attacks, it could seem like he's rushing it sometimes but he's not, hés always defensively responsible. I think he is a "more active Derevyenchenko".
In the beggining of the fight he might test his chin against Charlo's power and I can imagine he will take it well cause he has a really good one. But in the second half of the fight, I'm afraid that during one of he combos he will get caught with a "Julian Jackson vs Herol Graham" type of punch. I can't wait for that one because it will deliver for sure !I'm high on Lubin, but I think Charlo still all wrong for him, even though he is the better boxer. I saw that Jermall was called out by Rosado, it might be the perfect fight to test himself at 168. He really should jump up in that division because at his last weigh-in he looked like a zombie !Last but not least, I have a lot of respect for Jojo Diaz, this guy is a real fighter ! I don't know if he can beat the top guys in his new division, but he will give hell to any of them.
Thanks for your time! Max from France
Bread’s Response: Castano is a more agile and quicker than Devrenchenko. Now we have to find out if he’s as tough or good. I like Charlo by ko FIRST but if he doesn’t score a ko, I like Castano by decision. I know I hedged my pick but it’s honestly how I feel. Castano faded a little bit vs Michel Soro who is similar to Charlo. Castano is a fast starter so look for him to start fast, Charlo can score a ko at anytime.. The key for Castano is to vary his rhythm. He can’t attack at the same rhythm. Charlo has become a master of “clipping” opponents. He knows how to focus in and land the big shots. That’s Jermell Charlo’s gift. Landing fight changing punches when he needs them most.
Lubin is a super talented kid. But this may be a case of Julian Jackson vs Terry Norris. Norris was more talented but he couldn’t beat Jackson. He never even tried to get revenge in a rematch. Lubin wants revenge. Let’s see if he gets it. I’m intrigued.
I didn’t see Rosado call Charlo out. Not sure if Jermall would go to 168 for Rosado but who knows. Jermall is a big guy. He struggled to make 154, 5 years ago. So if 154 was a major struggle, 160 won’t be easy now. As you get older you put more mass on and the metabolism slows down slightly. So I can see him struggling to make 160 at this point. He’s tall but he’s not skinny which is odd. He has big legs to be a tall fighter for the weight. Most tall fighters for their weight have skinny legs. But Jermall is over 6ft at 160 with big legs. So his build is unique. I think he has 3 big fights. Andrade and GGG at 160 in unifications, big money and legacy fights. And Benavidez at 168 if he doesn’t want to “cross the street”. He’s 31 and I’ve always believed that fighters should take their big fights in their physical prime if they can help it. With GGG being past it at this point at 39 is my prime example of how you can get waited out in this game. I would favor Jermall to beat GGG at this point and Andrade and Benavidez are tough 50/50 type of fights. Benavidez may be a slight favorite based on Jermall’s last fight but fights aren’t won on paper, they are won in the ring. He can win all 3. Let’s see what happens.
I’m very impressed with Jo Jo Diaz. He doesn’t do anything great. But he does everything well. He’s a real fighter. When he was asked about legacy vs money. He picked legacy. With the right people around you, legacy=big money. A manager or promoter is supposed to pick money. But a fighter, in order to remain a fighter, has to think like a fighter. Diaz wants to fight the best. He has sort of a Paulie Ayala way about him. Ayala had an excellent career for himself while not being the most talented guy. Diaz may not be as talented as Haney and Garcia but that doesn’t mean he can’t beat them on the right night. I love his attitude and I respect him as a fighter.
Loved your answer to the Sha’Carri Richardson situation. It was right on point and if more people with a platform were not scared of the backlash that comes with speak logic and the truth they would openly say what you said. But because of the name calling and labeling, they make it seem as though Richardson was unfairly attacked. When in reality that notion is ridiculous. She smoked marijuana knowing it was banned. It’s really simple if you think about it and the only logical argument is, it shouldn’t be banned. Not whether she was right or wrong. You made the logical argument but I do disagree with you slightly. I think it should be banned. Not because it’s a PED but because it promotes drug use among the youth and I believe athletes should have a clean image. What are your thoughts on that?
Bread’s Response: You know what I stand corrected. Let me say this and phrase myself correctly. I don’t believe marijuana is a PED. But I’m not sure if it should be banned or not. If it’s allowed I wouldn’t cry and if it continues to be banned I wouldn’t either. You’re right. Kids do what they see. And I wouldn’t want my teenage kid telling me they smoke marijuana because John Doe or anyone else did it. I’m so big on my kids not seeing certain things, I wouldn’t let them know if I smoked marijuana even if they were grown. So the optics of promoting recreational drug use is definitely something we need to consider. Again I stand corrected.
I know Andre Ward is one of your favorites. He recently made a comment about John Riel Casimero basically dragging his feet in the drug testing dispute with Nonito Donaire. Ward backed Donaire. Why do you think more fighters and boxing figures in general don’t back Donaire in what is an obvious case of a fighter in Casimero who was waiting to clean himself up before testing. From his affiliation with Angel Heredia and Heredia’s link to jean Pascal who just tested positive for multiple PEDs this is an obvious case of deception.
Bread’s Response: I didn’t read Ward’s interview but if he did back Donaire, props to Ward. Ward is one of the fighters I respect the most in this game. I told him personally he should start a union for boxers. More young American fighters look up to Ward than any other fighter of the last era.
I think there are TWO reason why people in boxing don’t take a stance vs PEDS. ONE is they are dirty themselves and if they grandstand too hard they know there is someone who can pull their CARD. TWO is some people just don’t want to be sued or mixed up in someone else’s business.
I’m not going to comment on Casimero because I don’t know who handles this stuff for his camp in fairness to him. Fighters often don’t have the capacity to do simple things that most people think are common and easy. Their mindsets and concepts are different.
But I will explain the drug testing in general. Being enrolled in the Clean Testing Program doesn’t mean a fighter gets tested. It just means there is a possibility that they CAN be tested. When someone says they are in the Clean Testing Program and you hear people repeat that as if this makes them clean, either they are ignorant or uninformed. They are fighters in the Clean Testing Program that have NEVER been tested, EVER.I have had fighters in the Clean Testing Program. They rarely if ever got tested. It’s free so it’s limited and this is by no means a shot at VADA or the WBC.
We were tested 3x in Clean Testing Program in over 2 years and each time it was by my constant REQUEST. But in contrast when you sign up and PAY for Full VADA testing you are assured that you will be tested from the time you sign the forms up until the completion of the fight. Sometimes you will hear fans say why didn’t they take care of the VADA before they signed for the fight. Often times it works in reverse order. Often times the money is sorted out first then VADA is second. Because VADA cost and most fights where the fighter is not making 250k or more they aren’t willing to pay for it. As for the forms they are simple. You fill out a WHEREABOUTS section. You are asked for the location of the gym you train. Location of your camp. Times you usually train. And contact information on the fighter and usually a member of the team, in case VADA calls and the fighter doesn’t answer, they can call members of the team to find them. In this day and time everyone checks their phones enough where you shouldn’t have a non answer from anyone on the team. If you change camp locations etc, you are to notify VADA. It’s tedious but it’s not hard. A simple fax machine and a pen can get it done in 10 minutes. Once the forms are signed and paperwork is handed in then testing begins. Not BEFORE.
So if a fighter takes his time filling out the paperwork it doesn’t mean they are dirty but it can raise a RED FLAG. From my understanding Team Donaire didn’t like the response time from Team Casimero so they pulled out of the fight. Not getting into right or wrong. But what I think it establishes is, Team Donaire’s boundaries. It will be interesting to see how future opponents move in negotiations with Team Donaire. What they did was unprecedented in boxing today.
Hey Breadman, it has been long time since my last mail, I would like to talk to you about different fights/fighters. Hopefully this is not too long to make it to the mailbag. Ruiz vs Arreola: yes, Ruiz looked ordinary, has been knocked down (almost twice), but what a fabulous performance from Arreola. Who expected an Arreola like this? Chris fought a terrific fight, very disciplined, with a great footwork for the game plan, and also very good defense. The only thing I didn't like from him was his straight right hand punch delivery (ironically the punch that put down Ruiz ). We expected more from Ruiz, maybe he underestimated Arreola, maybe he needs few more fights with his new trainer to be at 100% with his new style. I definitely give him more time, I wouldn't jump to a conclusion like I/we did for Valdez, that looked less than spectacular until the last fight.
I don't know if you follow Katie Taylor, I like her, but to me lately she is struggling too much to win fights. She has to work too hard to win. Honestly I don't see much improvements from fight to fight, even facing an opponent with similar style; I think when the fight gets tougher, she is "only" able to fight and work harder. To me, she has issues with fighters that put pressure on her; I can see fighters and coach trying to exploit this. Everybody has a weak spot, but, again, I don't see her dealing with this kind of adversity any different, from fight to fight. (to me, in general, she is still fighting too amateurish, and she is too focused on the opponent head, as a target).
Hurd vs Arias: seems like Arias took a good page of your and J-Rock game plan. He was a sharp shooter from the outside, and was able to work efficiently in the inside. Of course, it took the right fighter to be able to fight Hurd like that, not everyone is able to fight in the inside, too. To me the biggest Hurd issues (I like him too) are that he allow his opponent to work on the inside, without at least tying up, or oppose to the inside work in some ways. It seems to accept the inside work of the opponent in a passive manner. And the second one, more important to me, when he applies pressure, most of the time he walks in the opponent range not in fight stance. Most of the time he is squared up in the opponent range (or is squared up just outside opponent range, and pretended to put himself in fighting stance stepping in to the opponent range), so he is not able to properly defend himself. As you always said on Hurd on working more on the jab, could improving also massively on the distance perception.
Naoya Inoue: 2 or 3 mailbags ago, someone compared Inoue to Shakur. To me Inoue is a puncher first, and an excellent boxer second (we can see clearly in the Donaire fight). To me is more like a quieter and meaner "little Kovalev" (in his prime, obviously), because he usually stalks the opponent. Kovalev wanted to keep his opponent at the end of his straight punches (long range) to the head, instead Inoue wants to keep them at long and mid range, to be able to punch in devastating fashion with both hands, to the head and to the body, with straight punches, hooks and uppercuts.
Montiel: I was impressed by Montiel in the Kirkland fight (I remember I wrote you also a mail about that), and I think he was able to give a good account of himself in the Charlo fight. He also gave him a very tough fight. I don't see Montiel too much as an awkward style fighter, I see a fighter that has multiple tools in his arsenal, and he is able to make good use of them. I am definitely a fan of him and his style, he could make some noise in the 160 division.
Bread’s Response: Montiel had a very smooth style that gave Charlo trouble. I was also very impressed. He stayed composed when he was hurt. He found his timing. And he found a shot he could land to work his way back in the fight. His lead left hand to the head and left hand underneath to the body were excellent shots all night. Charlo won the fight and it wasn’t close on the scorecards but this was the most distress I ever saw him in physically. This was a very hard fight for him. Montiel is a player.
In the past the styles of fighters were mislabeled. You were either a boxer/puncher, pure boxer, pressure fighter or slugger. But there is so much more to styles. Monster Inoue is actually a technical puncher who can box. He’s not a boxer/puncher like say Jorge Linares. Inoue is a puncher first. He’s a ko specialist with elite athleticism and skills. But his temperament is of a puncher not a boxer. In this era the media takes more time to articulate styles and that a plus.
That’s the thing about a style beating you on the big stage. The fighters who are capable of doing it will try it. Jarrett is going to have to adjust. Arias definitely took some things from Jrock and added in his own twist. You make some good points about Jarrett. But before I get into the technical stuff, he needs to embrace the style that has worked for him. If he stays on the fence of trying to be a “boxer” first, then he’s not going to regain his form. Jarrett has to understand what he is. A big, fluid, athletic, volume puncher. He has some boxing skills but that’s not his GO TO at the top level. He does walk foot over foot. It’s not the worst thing if he can punch and defend off of it. Lot’s of DC area fighters do that. The issue is fighters are meeting him as he’s walking and scoring big shots. Jarrett has to adjust quicker to that. On the inside Jarrett doesn’t move his feet. He accepts the incoming shots from the same position. Bent leaning towards his right side. If he established hand control and moved his feet even on the inside he wouldn’t be the SITTING DUCK that he is. Last but not least Jarrett needs to be more violent with his jab. Not a jab to keep people off of him. But a jab to put these opponents in their place and punish them. Brutalize them. Jarrett was too nice to Arias and Santana. He needs to be a killer in that ring. And it starts with a JAB.
I haven’t seen much of Katie Taylor but she is a hell of a fighter. I do know she’s in her 30s. So maybe she’s getting older. It happens.
Perception going into a fight is a tough on the favorite. That’s why I don’t knock a fighter who beats B level fighter after B level fighter consistently because everyone gives you their best shot when you’re at the top of the food chain. Arreola fought better than expected and Ruiz didn’t dominate like expected so therefore it seems as if Ruiz looked ordinary. It’s tough being a dominant fighter. Even one like say Wladimir Klitshko. Ruiz is better than ordinary. But being a dominant fighter and being money everytime out is not something you see out of the majority of fighters.
I’m getting more into basketball here lately… was wondering if you could do some compare and contrast for me. It’s fun to visualize and think about. Who would you say is the Charles Barkley of boxing? The Kobe Bryant of boxing? Larry Bird? Tim Duncan? Damian Lillard? And why? What do you see in each ball player that corresponds in your mind to the fighter?
Bread’s Response: Boxing and basketball. Two of my favorite sports. Charles Barkley is criminally underrated. His peak years from 86-96 is a top 20 peak ever. If Tim Duncan is a center and not a power forward then Barkley is the best PF ever. Yes better than Karl Malone. Greg Popovich once said that Duncan was a center so…It’s hard to do a basketball and boxing comparison with the athletes because the peaks are different and winning a championship in basketball is harder than winning a belt in boxing. But I will try. I would say James Toney is the Charles Barkley of boxing. Undersized but could bang with the big boys. Brash personality. Fearless. On his best night as good as anyone.
I once compared Floyd Mayweather to Lebron James in terms of longevity and having the longest peaks ever. But as I think about Floyd Mayweather is the Kobe Bryant of boxing. Both are viewed as the hardest workers you will ever see. Both have sublime skills mixed with great god given talent. Both were athletic but not quite as athletic as say Roy Jones or Michael Jordan. Both had fathers who were professionals in their sports of choice. Both turned pro in 1996. Kobe entered the draft in 96, Floyd turned pro in 96. They both may have the highest combination of neatness, skill, work ethic and talent.
Larry Bird is better than the new historians think. He has a case for being the best passer in history. His peak from 81-87 had him better than Magic but because Bird was 3 years older and had back injuries, Magic’s peak lasted longer so he was considered slightly better by the end. I think Andre Ward is the Larry Bird of boxing. Ward doesn’t look like the best but he was. People who say Bird wouldn’t be able to play in today’s NBA are sadly mistaken. He could just the way the Joker does now. Just like Dirk Nowitski did. Skill and athleticism are different. Bird and Ward had the skill of being able to think fast and do things that didn’t require athleticism and outperform other athletes who seem better but aren’t.
I would say Larry Holmes was the Tim Duncan of basketball. Holmes was one of those guys that just went about his business and didn’t get the shine that flashier fighters did, but he got the results. Just like Timmy D.
Jermell Charlo would be the Damian Lillard of boxing right now. Lillard hits big huge shots just like Charlo does in the ring. Charlo is considered one of the most clutch fighters in the sport, same as Lillard is in basketball.
How do you like it?
What are your thoughts on the delay of the Canelo vs Plant negotiations? I really respect your opinion but I just don’t understand what you see in Plant to make you think he would be competitive with Canelo. I never thought this fight would take place.
Bread’s Response: I don’t have any thoughts on the negotiations. I learned a long time ago to not get into that stuff because unless you’re directly involved you will never know the truth. That’s their business. They will figure it out one way or the other.
If they make the fight you will see how difficult Plant will be for him. Plant is a disciplined, dedicated fighter. When a fighter has that type of dedication, when things get tough, cleverly quitting like we have seen other fighters do, is not something they consider because they know they haven’t cut any corners. You would be surprised out at how many fighters submit when the going gets tough and the naked eye doesn’t even see the submission. I’m not saying that Plant is Diego Corrales. He hasn’t been through enough to determine if he is. But I do believe that the Canelo fight is his superbowl. And the critics think Canelo is going to break him when he turns up the heat. I don’t believe that.
I think he can go to a dark place and stay in the fight. In terms of skill, I think Plant is more athletic than people realize. He’s also more skillful. I think he has an educated left hand. A good set of legs. And a natural pure boxing style that can trouble Canelo. Canelo is on a major hot streak and I was really impressed with his wins over Callum Smith and BJ Saunders. But as a competitor when a fighter is hot, I always believe he’s due for a “come down” performance. I also look at fights differently than most. For as good as Canelo is and has been. He lost about 5 rounds to Kovalev. I know he was in control. But Kovalev’s jab and distance was allowing him to score points. I also want to point out that Canelo didn’t DOMINATE Danny Jacobs. He didn’t drop or stop Jacobs. He won clean but Jacobs also won his share of rounds. People overlook that performance. I feel like Caleb Plant although not as experienced, is a better pure boxer than Jacobs, with a better jab. But this is all moot points. Let’s see if they fight first. Boxing is a sport to the fighters but it’s a business to the business people. Let them figure it out first.
I just bought a ticket for rigo v. casimero and I was hoping you could break the fight down for me. I'm a huge rigo fan and I think he can take this one but I think it's a really rough fight for him, casimero seems to have real power and a good skillset.
Thanks in advance and God bless.
Bubba in tac town
Bread’s Response: This fight is hard for me to break down. There are so many variables. Casimero was getting ready for Rigo, then Donaire, then Rigo again. So he’s had to focus and refocus on two different styles. Rigo was pulled out then pulled back in. And then there is the drug testing issue….I have no idea how sharp either guy will be.
From what I have seen Casimero has a great chance to beat Rigo. Casimero is one of those blitzers who can beat a more skilled fighter because he doesn’t think, he reacts. Rigo is more stationary these days. He looks to land that machete like left hand. The thing that hurts Rigo in my opinion in what I believe will be a war, is he doesn’t have a two fisted attack. He’s all left hand in the trenches. But Casimero can be a little reckless and Rigo is a big puncher, regardless of his reputation as a stinker. My gut says that Casimero is a little too fresh and strong at this point. I also wonder how Rigo will look at 118lb when he was fighting at 122lb his entire career. Rigo looks well into his 40s in the face. I hope I’m wrong because Rigo in terms of god given applicable boxing talent has a case for being the most talented fighter I have ever seen. He’s that good and history won’t be kind to him even though he’s never lost a fight at or below 122lbs. We shall see. I expect a shootout.
What a fight we have coming this morning! I've been watching Castano since the WBS days and let me tell you, it will be EXTREMELY difficult to break his will. He fought Derevyanchenko in the phone booth at times and more than held his own. He's going to continue bringing it from the opening bell and he's not just a sloppy pressure fighter. Castano has a good amateur background and uses his jab very well to get on the inside. He doesn't necessarily use it as a weapon like someone such as say Spence or Golovkin, but he doubles it up well and changes the levels of it to get closer to his opponents and just tries to smother them to death. We all know Charlo isn't the most active fighter nor one that tries to win every single round. He's going to try to land big shots when Castano comes in.
Trout and Jackson actually made Charlo look silly in spots where he had to lead as he loads up too much, but if you come at him and give him opportunities to land, he will do just that. So this is a very interesting match up stylistically. Charlo's biggest advantage isn't his power or explosiveness but it is his mental fortitude and stamina. He stays in shape year around and never gets discouraged even if he is losing some early rounds. Charlo has that Wilder type of belief that if there is still time left on the clock, then he has a chance to land something big. Don't get upset at me for this comparison, but this fight reminds me of Hearns vs Barkley!
While Castano is trying to arrive at the big stage, I feel like Charlo has that chip on his shoulder of being disrespected and discredited by the media by not being on any major P4P list and he wants to show he belongs with any of the top guys! As TO famously said, getcha popcorn ready!
Bread’s Response: I think that this is a perfect style match up. You have two fighters who are confident in their styles. You have some fighters who aren’t and it creates tepid moments. Castano is a pressure technician, who is short so he comes forward and works on the inside and midrange. Charlo is a sharp shooting big puncher, with a great two fisted attack. You make a great point. Charlo is better when you come towards him, than he is when he’s made to lead and track opponents. He gets a little sloppy when he has to cut the ring off and still land his big shots. But let’s not be locked into one way of thinking. Castano may box and move away some. I’ve seen him do it and he can. This tactic would really throw a monkey wrench in the expectations of the fight. The thing that impresses me the most about Castano is his feet. He’s nimble. I’m curious to see if he will be able to get in and out of range without getting hit with anything too big.
Two things about Charlo that are hard to quantify are his chin and clutch gene. Charlo lands the punch that he needs to land, when he needs to land it. He’s done it over and over throughout his career. Very similar to Danny Garcia at 140lbs. Or Deontay Wilder at heavyweight. Charlo also always has the better chin in his fights. It’s why he’s usually the puncher. Because the fighter who takes the other’s punches better, is the puncher. It comes down to if Castano can warm up to the power. If his chin can hold up he can win. Jeison Rosario had the skills to score points even while coming forward, but he simply doesn’t have the durability. We can do X’s and O’s all we want. But Castano has to be durable enough to win 7 out of 12 rounds. He’s going to get hit. We shall see.
What’s up Mr Edwards. Have you made an official pick between Pacquiao and Spence? I haven’t been following as much so I may have missed it. My heart says Pacquiao but my brain says Spence. I’ve been a PAC fan for a long time. I just don’t see a path to victory for him. The only way I see is for him to hurt and finish Spence early. We haven’t really seen Spence hit by a guy like Pac (of course there is nobody like Pac) so I guess we’ll see. I feel like Pac may have gotten old in the Thurman fight. It seemed like he hit a wall halfway through the fight and was fading. Of course he did bail himself out a little bit when he hurt Thurman to the body. Clutch. Anyway, be well.
Bread’s Response: My official pick is Errol Spence by decision. 115-113 or 116-112. I think his jab and length will be too much. I don’t believe Manny has the legs and energy to overcome that at this point. Keith Thurman is athletic but he moves away, bounces around and jumps in and out with power shots. He doesn’t really point his shoulder and controls his opponents with a jab. Errol Spence does. He punishes guys with jabs. Manny will have his moments but I think he’s just too small. It’s not just age. It’s physicality and length. Spence has a reach of 72 inches and he’s almost 5’10”.
Against Mikey Garcia and Danny Garcia, Spence would land a nice jab and simply step back. Danny and Mikey are fighters who stay within themselves so they just sort of got outboxed. They don’t really put the foot to the metal. Manny does but now comes the age. He’s 42. The older you get the less vicious you become. Manny’s skill and natural talent will allow him to WOO the crowd and land some nice shots. He will have moments but not so much rounds. Manny’s only chance is if he drops Spence early or cuts him and the rounds have sort of a carry over effect. I suspect Errol will “box” smartly and get the win. But I am curious to see if we will get the Errol who fought Peterson or the Errol who fought the Garcia’s. Against his better opponents he has decided to box more.
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