By Bob Canobbio
Photo © Ed Mulholland/FightWireImages.com
Miguel Cotto (29-0, 24KOs), making the second defense of his WBA welterweight title, nearly a 3-1 favorite vs. former two-time champ, Brooklyn’s Zab Judah, (34-4-2NC, 25KOs) who hasn’t won a fight in over two years. A sellout crowd of 17,000-plus is expected at New York’s Madison Square Garden on the eve of the annual Puerto Rican Day Parade.
Cotto made a successful first defense last March, pummeling German-based challenger Oktay Urkal over 11 rounds as the capacity crowd at the Coliseo Roberto Clemente cheered his every punch landed. And land he did- 54% of his power shots, many to the body of Urkal , who landed 45% of his power punches, with no effect on the frustrated Cotto, who was clearly looking for the KO win from the opening bell. Cotto balanced his attack, averaging 19 jabs thrown per round among his 49 total punches thrown per round. He landed over 58% of his power shots in five of the 11 rounds, bolstered by that steady body attack.
Speaking of his body attack, Cotto won his version of the welterweight title by hammering the body of Carlos Quintana for five rounds last December. The previously undefeated Quintata (23-0) was coming off a one-sided victory over the highly-touted Joel Julio six months earlier. Quintana got off 102 punches in round one, then averaged just 63 per round (landing 19%) the rest of the way after feeling Cotto’s power. Cotto averaged 56 punches thrown per round and landed 33% of his power shots. Cotto mixed in 13 jabs thrown per round vs. the southpaw Quintana.
One year ago, Cotto met another Brooklyn fighter at the Garden - Paulie Malignaggi. Cotto landed 40% of his power shots among his 50 punches thrown per round over twelve rounds. The outgunned Malignaggi was down in round two and suffered a broken facial bone, yet went the distance, the only fighter to do so among Cotto’s last nine victims. Cotto had a 203-136 edge in total connects, as Malignaggi managed to land only 24% of his total punches and just 19% of his jabs.
In his toughest test to date, Cotto got off the canvas in round two (he was very close to getting stopped) to score a seventh round knockout over current WBO 140-lb champ Ricardo Torres. Cotto dropped Torres in round one, before walking into a right hand in the second round. When the smoke cleared in round two, Torres had landed 39 of 89 power shots, the most landed vs. Cotto in 19 of his fights tracked by CompuBox. Cotto blasted away at Torres over the next four rounds, outlanding the Colombian 125-47 in total punches- before walking into another right hand in round five than nearly dropped him again. Cotto again regrouped to outland the now spent Torres 50-10 in total punches in rounds six and seven. Overall, Cotto landed 49% of his power shots, Torres 36% of his non-jabs.
Cotto and Judah have one common opponent- southpaw Demarcus Corley. In February of ’05, fighting in front of a sold out crowd at the Coliseo Ruben Rodriguez, Cotto forgot about his jab and as a result, was nearly dropped by the light-hitting Corley with a right hook in round three. Cotto survived the third and was awarded a KO win in the fifth via a controversial stoppage. Overall, Cotto threw just 23 jabs in five rounds. He landed 42% of his power shots as Corley landed 36% of his non-jabs.
Judah landed 46% of his power shots in his split decision win over Corley in July of ’02, but landed an average of just 9 per round among his 47 total punches thrown per round. Corley landed just 24% of his power shots vs. Judah, throwing 21 per round. Judah did land an average of 10 jabs per round vs. Corley, throwing 38 per round. He’ll need his jab to land that frequently all night vs. Cotto to have any chance for victory.
Since that lackluster win over Corley, Judah’s 5-3, with one no contest in his last nine fights. His wins were over Jaime Rangel (KO 1); Rafael Pineda (W 12-round split decision- a fight in which he badly faded down the stretch against the 38-yr. old Pineda); Wayne Martell (KO 1); Cory Spinks (KO 9) and Cosme Rivera (KO 3). He was outhustled in his first fight with Spinks, was upset by Carlos Baldomir, losing one of his welterweight titles, only to rebound with a defense vs. Floyd Mayweather in his next fight. His comeback fight vs. Ruben Galvan following the Mayweather loss ended in a first round no-contest after Galvan was cut and unable to continue.
Judah averaged just 42 total punches thrown per round is the losses to Spinks, Baldomir and Mayweather, 16 less than the welterweight average. He landed just 23% of his total punches. That percentage is so low (10% lower than avg.welterweight avg.) because he landed just 15% (four landed per round) of his 28 jabs thrown per round. That, plus he averaged just 15 power punches thrown per round (less than half the welterweight average) and landed just six per round- again less than half the welterweight average.
In his split decision win over Corley, he landed ten jabs per round, throwing 38 per round. He was busier in the rematch win over Spinks, averaging 51 total punches thrown per round. He also averaged 35 jabs thrown per round in Spinks II, setting up the power shots that eventually ko’d Cory.
Judah faded in the later rounds vs. Pineda, Baldomir and Mayweather. Not so much in his punch output, but rather he loses punching power as the fight progresses. That’s a conditioning and a will to win issue. He’s got to realize another loss will take him out of title contention for some time (although he seems to have nine lives). He’s got to fight like a desperate fighter- land his jab 8-10 times per round and throw more than 40-45 total punches per round.
Yes, he’ll be dangerous over the first four rounds, maybe even buzzing or dropping Cotto for a flash. Then, if the fade happens, Cotto, with his body attack in high gear, will walk through Zab, either scoring a late round stoppage or forcing Judah to fight a fight he can’t win- just survive. If Judah brings his “a” game, he could beat Cotto to the punch all night. Not likely. Cotto has to remember to bring his jab to the Garden party. Not go power punch crazy like he did against Corley. Also not likely, he’ll respect Judah’s power, especially early. Cotto by unanimous decision, dominating the later rounds.