By Johnny Ortiz

Even George Armstrong Custer would have enjoyed the upcoming battle between Erik "El Terrible" Morales and Manny "Pac Man" Pacquiao, but this time around, Erik will not be blindsided by a surprise, massive attack, as was General Custer at The Little Big Horn.

I am assuming that Erik has had a chance to study the fight films of Manny Pacquiao against both Marco Antonio Barrera and Juan Manuel Marquez, with the aid of these films, Erik will have learned to be alert and ready for any kind of an ambush that Chief Roach and the Wild Card Camp may have in store for him.

I wrote, and feel justified in saying that Marco Antonio entered his fight with Pacquiao not mentally or physically prepared. I vividly remember writing how mentally stressed out Marco was going into the fight. He was forced to leave a training camp that was just beginning to go very well when approaching fires in Big Bear threatened the safety of the training camp; he was going through an emotional breakup with his long time manager and good friend, Ricardo Maldonado. On top of this, Marco Antonio was going through a very heavy, personal matter in Mexico. Even so, Marco went into the eleventh round with Manny. I’m not making excuses for Marco, Manny Pacquiao deserved the win, but if they were to fight again, with all of Marco’s problems behind him and his regaining top fighting form, I would not hesitate to pick him in a rematch with the Pac Man.

In viewing Juan Manuel Marquez’ fight against Pacquiao, Erik should have taken note that after spotting Manny a three knockdown first round, Juan Manuel rallied, not only getting back into the fight, but in my estimation, coming all the way back to win the fight by two points. What Juan Manuel discovered after a brutal first round was that Manny Pacquiao was a strong one-handed puncher. Marquez made a mistake by engaging Manny in the first round allowing himself to get nailed by Pacquiao’s powerful left hand. Once Marquez regained his fighting composure and adjusted to the task at hand, he slowly and methodically began to land his counter punches. He even staggered Pacquiao several times in the late rounds. I would have again picked Juan Manuel to beat Manny in a heartbeat, had their rematch not been postponed.

Their first fight was an unbelievable saga, after getting shellacked in the opening round; Marquez surprised everyone by being able to come back. Manny averaged 75 punches in the first two rounds, then as the come-backing Juan Manuel began to land his patented counter right hands with regularity, the pace suddenly slowed and turned in Marquez’ favor. Pacquiao dropped to 40 punches per round for the next ten rounds while Juan Manuel increased to 46 punches per round over the same stretch.

These are just some of the reasons I am picking Erik Morales to beat southpaw Manny Pacquiao on March 19th at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. That, and the intriguing fact that against three former terrific, southpaw champions, Paulie Ayala, Kevin Kelley and Daniel Zaragoza, Erik landed 50% of his power shots. He was in complete control in all three fights. To give you an indication on just how strong Erik can finish a fight, in his bout against Ayala, he landed a total of 422 punches, only the 25th time a fighter has landed over 400 punches in a championship fight. Erik also set a CompuBox featherweight record of 74 power punches in the final round, throwing 141 punches in the final three minutes of the bout. Erik accomplished this feat against an excellent defensive fighter.

In the last Barrera fight, El Terrible and Marco made the contracted weight of 130 pounds, Erik then later entered the ring at a high weight of 143 pounds to Marco’s 132. Having to play catch-up after starting very sluggish and giving away maybe five of the first six rounds, Erik rallied in the late rounds to make the fight closer. Finishing strong, Erik won the 11th and 12th rounds; he threw 106 punches in the 11th, and 89 in the final round. It proved to be a little, too late, the slow start and possibly the extra weight cost him the fight.

Manny Pacquiao, who had his first fight at 106 pounds, finds himself seven divisions heavier as he moves up to the super featherweight division of 130 pounds. The Morales fight will be Manny’s first at the 130-pound mark. Erik will be making his fourth appearance at the super featherweight limit.

Even though Erik is the more natural fighter at the weight, and having fought and beaten the better horses such as these ten former world champions: Marco Antonio Barrera, David Zaragosa, Jesus Chavez, Carlos Hernandez, Paulie Ayala, Wayne McCullough, Junior Jones, Kevin Kelley, Hector Acero Sanchez and Guty Espadas, the MGM Sports Book opened with Pacquiao as their 6-5 favorite. The price stayed the same until yesterday when they moved the odds even more on the Pac Man making him a –130 favorite over El Terrible who was listed at +110.

It remains a mystery to me as to why Manny Pacquiao would be the favorite going in. I know everyone thinks he is some kind of Superman, I constantly heard the same thing about a guy by the name of Ricardo Mayorga until Felix Trinidad finally burst his bubble. For argument’s sake, let’s do a little research. Pacquiao, whose three biggest fights have been with Agapito Sanchez, Barrera and Marquez, in the three fights, he won one and drew in the other two. To reiterate, Manny has beaten one former champion, Erick has beaten ten. Manny has had only six fights on US turf. Three of them were not to be confused with any household boxing names.

On February 9, 1996, Manny was knocked out in three rounds by someone by the name of Rustico Torrecampo, three years later on September 17, 1999, he was again KO’d in three rounds, this time by another forgettable name, Medgoen Lukchaopormasak. Rustico and Medgoen on their best day will never be confused with Erik Morales. I know Manny Pacquiao has not lost a fight in the last five and a half years, although I thought Marquez beat him ten months ago, aside from the two KO’s, Manny has been down three times. He has only fought seven times past the eighth round compared to Erik’s going past the eighth on twenty different occasions while going past the tenth round fourteen times.

Can it be that the oddsmakers may be thinking that Morales is taking on a dangerous opponent so soon after his tough confrontation against Marco Antonio Barrera? Are they forgetting that Erik is 17-2 in title fights and that he is one of boxing’s true warriors? Speaking strictly as a former trainer, a fight in which he took as good as he received five months ago, Erik could conceivably have gotten himself physically ready for a tough fight such as with Manny Pacquiao. Erick asking for the fight tells me he will be ready for anything the Pac Man has to offer. A fighter knows his limitations; if he feels he’s ready…he’s ready. If he loses, it would only be because he lost to a better fighter, not because he wasn’t prepared to fight.

The weigh-in, and what Erik weighs the night of the fight, will tell me just how well prepared he is. I really do not believe Erik Morales would take a fight with Pacquiao if he didn’t truly believe he could beat him both physically and mentally.

El Terrible has to take Manny into the late rounds where Erik seems to get stronger as the fight progresses, he also must try to get Manny to fight at his pace. Juan Manuel took Manny into the deep water and took him to school…if it weren’t for the three knockdowns in the first round, and the energy that was drained; I think Marquez would have had an outside shot to stop Pacquiao.

Erik has to be careful of Manny early, there is no denying that Pacquiao will come out of the chute with bad intentions from the very beginning, and that he is a lethal puncher with his left hand, if he can land, he can definitely hurt you. I look at Manny Pacquiao as a better skilled Ricardo Mayorga. Like Mayorga, when he gets a little frustrated, Manny tends to swing wildly leaving himself wide open. Marquez took advantage of it, Erick Morales, a boxing sharpshooter who has good power in both hands, will do the same. Erik, knowing of Manny’s early plan of attack, may have a plan of his own. Pacquiao had better not get reckless as he takes the fight to Erik, he could find himself entering a lion’s den.

When Juan Manuel finally figured out that Pacquiao was nothing more than a big one-handed puncher, he circled away from it and began to easily take control of the fight. If he were able do that after being totally blown out in the first round, what does that say about the Pac Man as a finisher?

Morales has to take a page out of Marquez’ book by circling away from the big left hand while landing his own big shots. Much has been made of Manny’s bomb of a left hand, all I know is that four smaller guys I’ve never heard of went the ten round distance with the two-time world champion, five including Marquez.

Erik Morales is a very good puncher as well as an excellent boxer, not many unknowns have ever gone the distance with him, he is the natural super featherweight, he is a three time world champion, like I said, the longer the fight goes, the better it will be for the stronger Morales. I sincerely believe that if the fight goes into the later rounds, El Terrible has a very good chance of stopping the Pac Man.

When I mentioned earlier that Manny Pacquiao had been knocked out two times, both in the third round, I was thinking as a trainer. I have been in boxing since I was nine years old; I have been a fighter, a trainer and a manager…I have always believed that if a fighter has been knocked out once, it can happen again.

A fighter can build up some resistance by doing numerous neck exercises; there is absolutely nothing that can be done about making the nerves in your chin and neck any stronger than they naturally are. Manny was KO’d in the much lower weights, what some people seem to be forgetting is that the higher a fighter goes up in weight, the harder the opponent hits. I don’t care how big you may grow physically…the chin remains the same.

A lot of people are unaware that Roy Jones Jr. was knocked out in an amateur fight. He later became one of the greatest defensive and offensive fighters in boxing history. Late in his career, Roy, after winning a unanimous decision in his first fight with Antonio Tarver, came into the second Tarver fight in excellent shape, unfortunately, he got hit with a picture-perfect shot on the chin, short circuiting the nerves. When this happens, all the conditioning in the world cannot help you. With the damage to the nerves done, Roy was again stopped in his very next fight with Glen Johnson when he again was hit directly on the already fragile chin.

A lot has been made lately about a secret weapon that Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach has created, it’s called "Manila Ice," it has been revealed as nothing more than a right hook. Roach said he developed the secret weapon after discovering a weakness in Morales after watching some of his previous fights. My question is: "Being a notorious left-handed puncher during Manny’s career, isn’t it a little late to start developing a big right hand?" It would seem very hard to teach a fighter who has already had 43 fights new tricks. I remember while at the Main St. Gym, Memo Soto, the trainer of Danny "Lil Red" Lopez, trying to teach Lil Red how to get out of the way of a right hand, it was too late, as I mentioned in a round-about way, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.

When a fighter has relied too much on one hand for the better part of his career, the minute he starts to get hit hard, and starts to get frustrated, he reverts to what got him there. My friend Freddie Roach had better be concentrating on the two guns Erik Morales will be bringing into the ring Saturday night.

My picking Erik Morales is only my opinion, quite a few people I’ve talked to emphatically believe Pacquio cannot lose, sure, he could get lucky with a big bomb, I just think that Erik is not being given the respect and credit he deserves. I’ll take a guy with the track record of an Erik Morales over a guy who has been knocked out twice and came up from the lower, lower weights anytime.

I felt the same when I picked a 4-1 underdog by the name of Bernard Hopkins to KO Felix Trinidad, I felt the same when I picked a 7-1 dog by the name of Vernon Forrest over Shane Mosley, the same goes for my picking Evander Holyfield and Felix Trinidad to stop both of their opponent’s, Mike Tyson and Ricardo Mayorga. I may be proven wrong, but I am definitely going with who I think is the better all around fighter…Erik "El Terrible" Morales.

I read today where an unidentified Soothsayer to Julius Caesar once warned him by saying:

"BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!"

Trainer Freddie Roach to Erik Morales:

"BEWARE THE ‘ICE’ OF MARCH 19!"

To this I say:

"BEWARE THE HANDS OF MORALES!"

Top Rank Promotions has put together a terrific undercard to go along with a main event that should be a war. A fight I am especially looking forward to is the semi-main event between WBA Super Flyweight Champion Martin Castillo and former champion Eric Morel. This fight figures to be just as explosive as the main event. It is definitely a ‘must see’ bout.   
 

Also on the card will be Jorge Arce vs. Hussein Hussein plus the fast rising Julio Caesar Chavez Jr. who will be showcased in a six round bout.

My keen interest in the semi-main is that seven months ago, Ed Holmes’ All Star Boxing Promotions honored Martin Castillo and me at the Quiet Canon in Montebello, California. I was given a Lifetime Achievement Award while Martin was honored as All Star Boxing Promotions "Fighter of the Year." I was very impressed by Martin’s politeness and overall pleasant demeanor. I will be rooting for my new little friend on Saturday night.

"Coming with Everything"…Morales – Pacquiao can be seen on HBO PPV Saturday, March 19, 2005…commencing at 6 PM.

UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND…PEACE AND GOD BLESS!